The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, Premium George said:

This thread has been on point this year. Great job. But one thing frustrates me, especially this type of conversation-

Menor, the expert- looking like 12-14m in previews.

Idiot- Still early, can do more. 12-16 is better range.

Menor- I hope so, but, looks like 12-14m.

Idiot- Yes, it can do 15, which will lock 150m ow. Great result.

Good thing is now, most people know the experts, so not much confusion. Unlike earlier days when people were ready to call out porthos for Idiot's misinterpretation. 

 

 

33 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Man, it’s so true. The subtweeting here is intense though 

Personally I don't particularly like implying some of our board members are "idiots".  Maybe misplaced optimism or passion. Even blind optimism.  Exuberant fanboy/fangirl?  Certainly.  I'll cop to that myself.

 

But idiots?  Bridge way too far for Yours Truly.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That would be a better comp as Summer films are less pre-sale loaded than that of other times.

 

That said; I wanna know how AM 2 Previews + OD looks compared with FFH.

 

I would also caution that Tuesday is realtively biggest day for online sale after opening day. That is also going to inflate FFH OD online sales as it is not only OD but also Tuesday.

Tuesday is biggest for normal release schedule because it let’s you see the movie 5 days after open for cheaper. FFH OD won’t have the Tuesday discount on most places, and waiting 8 days to prebuy the 2nd Tuesday would be pretty strange, so I don’t think this should be a big issue. It’s yet more volatility at the margins, I suppose.

[charlie Jatinder]

13 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

 

The queen has spoken. The king's tickets will start tomorrow

 

@Porthos @VenomXXR @captainwondyful @YourMother the Edgelord @Menor @Thanos Legion @FlashMaster659 etc., may I wish the best for all of you.

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	2267	2796	18.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      29

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

0.9814x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 8 days before their showings.

 

T-8 days:

FB2 sneaks      18 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 860/1399 seats left  |  38.53% sold]

 

[Porthos]

On 6/22/2019 at 10:29 PM, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-22 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	54.613%	42796	Toy Story 4
2	06.724%	5269	Childs Play (2019)
3	05.179%	4058	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	04.899%	3839	Men in Black International
5	04.603%	3607	The Secret Life of Pets 2
6	04.087%	3203	Rocketman
7	02.859%	2240	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
8	02.028%	1589	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
9	02.009%	1574	Dark Phoenix
10	01.988%	1558	Shaft (2019)

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-23 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	55.456%	40659	Toy Story 4
2	06.450%	4729	Childs Play (2019)
3	05.269%	3851	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	04.423%	3243	Men in Black International
5	04.193%	3074	The Secret Life of Pets 2
6	03.201%	2347	Rocketman
7       02.932% 2150    Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) [combined]
8	02.761%	2024	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	01.998%	1465	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
10	01.886%	1383	Anna (2019)

[Premium George]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Personally I don't particularly like implying some of our board members are "idiots".  Maybe misplaced optimism or passion. Even blind optimism.  Exuberant fanboy/fangirl?  Certainly.  I'll cop to that myself.

 

But idiots?  Bridge way too far for Yours Truly.

Somebody have to say that. Not saying I am a pure soul or perfect poster but I saw posters who made low predictions for TS4 called trolls by these fanboys. If they keep their optimism/pessimism to themselves and not attack others, that would be great. Maybe that is not a bridge too far for you.

[cax16]

Spider-Man FFH (Tues July 2)

 

1:20pm - 49/336

4:25pm - 87/336

7:30pm - 212/336

10:35pm - 53/336

 

There’s really not much else to track at my theatre for this atm, most of the other shows have minimal seats sold for the other days leading into the weekend and even on the weekend there isn’t much sold. I’ll check back next Monday and see how it’s doing again.

[john2000]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	17	2267	2796	18.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      29

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

0.9814x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 8 days before their showings.

 

T-8 days:

FB2 sneaks      18 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 860/1399 seats left  |  38.53% sold]

 

good ?

[Deja23]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I thought I saw something like 170-200m. If its 150m it has to be a disaster to miss that number. That is sub 300m finish with that kind of OW.

I guess the $150m was initial tracking. It’s been updated to $170m, but Sony’s staying at $154m.  But it doesn’t seem $200m is very likely based on this report if other tracking has it below $170m and others think it’ll be a “shocker.” I just don’t think $200m+ is what we should expect from FFH. 

Quote

Any sweat Sony is apt to endure this weekend with the potential under-performance of Men in Black: International will be extremely alleviated in less than three weeks when their Marvel Cinematic Universe co-production Spider-Man: Far From Home puts summer back on track with a $170M-plus opening over six days.

And there’s a bulk of historical and current B.O. and social diagnostics to support that projection. Read on.

One of the top tracking services has Far From Home at $165M, and more aggressive box office analysts believe the movie has a shot to make $200M (though some say that would be a shocker). Sony is being very conservative, with $154M for the Tuesday-Sunday spread.

 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

I guess the $150m was initial tracking. It’s been updated to $170m, but Sony’s staying at $154m.  But it doesn’t seem $200m is very likely based on this report if other tracking has it below $170m and others think it’ll be a “shocker.” I just don’t think $200m+ is what we should expect from FFH. 

 

we will see, i trust way more our guys here, then these guys,

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, Premium George said:

Somebody have to say that. Not saying I am a pure soul or perfect poster but I saw posters who made low predictions for TS4 called trolls by these fanboys. If they keep their optimism/pessimism to themselves and not attack others, that would be great. Maybe that is not a bridge too far for you.

It's not really as widespread as you are making it to be though. I have really only seen one person do that on this thread constantly.

Edited June 24, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[john2000]

when the lion king presales start ? 

[jedijake]

I can no longer trust "tracking" numbers from the trade websites (Deadline, Variety, BOP, etc.) I have to rely on personal reports from theater sales HERE a lot more as they were much more reliable for TS4.

 

Ex: Based on data here, TS4 was running 60-65% of I2's numbers despite what other sites were projecting. Low and behold, the OW was 64% of I2. Case closed!

Edited June 24, 2019 by jedijake

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I can no longer trust "tracking" numbers from the trade websites (Deadline, Variety, BOP, etc.) I have to rely on personal reports from theater sales HERE a lot more as they were much more reliable for TS4.

 

Ex: Based on data here, TS4 was running 60-65% of I2's numbers despite what other sites were projecting. Low and behold, the OW was 64% of I2. Case closed!

i stopped to trust the sites a long time ago, i mean take for example endgame, afte this humongus ow these people still doubt that the movie would pass titanic, yeah nothing is sure 100% but the odds were ver one sided, so, i dont like being rude, but i am really wondering how some of them got the job in the first place

Edited June 24, 2019 by john2000

[Sunny Max]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

but i am really wondering how some of them got the job in the first place

We have better Trackers here ... They Should get the Job instead of those overrated people ..

[Premium George]

53 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's not really as widespread as you are making it to be though. I have really only seen one person do that on this thread constantly.

Can you PM me that posters name. Frequency matters more. I also didn't know when idiot became a major no-no. It's used commonly on these forum.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

when the lion king presales start ? 

 

30 minutes.

[FlashMaster659]

5 minutes

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

5 minutes

Let the Chaos commence

[Stewart]

I know this is just the very start, but Pulse is gonna be busy this hour...