The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Perfundle]

54 minutes ago, BudStarr said:

I’m not much of a poster but a regular reader of this thread and really appreciate all the analysis and numbers from everyone here.

 

Inspired by @CoolEric258‘s suggestion, I delved into the akvalley archives for PG/family/kids presales from 2018. Here’s some comparisons up against Detective Pikachu:

 

First 7 days

49% of The Incredibles 2 (89.5m)

Thanks a lot for this. I think I found the 2018 archive, the one called Fandango Pulse Purchase History, but it doesn't contain Detective Pikachu's data; where did you get those numbers? Also, it looks like the Incredibles 2 data is split into 2D, 3D and IMAX 2D, so your comparison is including all three ticket types, right?

[Cappoedameron]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

While noting that all films are different and that that I2 had the built in advantage of being a sequel, this does look pretty good for Pika Pika.  Seems to be broadly in line with BOP's 90m forecast. 

So great work there. 👍

Doesn't long range forecasting showcase the bottom floor? So wouldn't that suggest Pikachu has a really good chance of opening higher? Like over 100M-150M Range?

Edited April 17, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[terrestrial]

4 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

 

You have a point there as I like Feige, although I can't imagine they wouldn't exist.  I can't say I know enough about "worst ppl" at Pre-Marvel Disney to speak to your other point.

 

4 hours ago, druv10 said:

Ike Perlmutter would still be in charge if MCU still existed. For sure, Feige would be gone as he despises Ike. Thank God Disney bought Marvel and curbed Ike's power or I don't even want to know where we would be.

 

Add Avi Arad to that, he too was a boss for Feige then. In tags as probably too OT:

 

Spoiler

 

He did not only never believed into the MCU idea, he thinks he knows what the ~ 'little boys who do see CBMs want to see' and worse. Difficult for subordinates to work with, incl if you want to call them as such, directors.... in that regard and others. On some IHulk DVDs versions is behind-the-scene materials added where he speaks very dismissive about CBM audience, like they need no effort being done. He comes from the toy producing side and thinks he knows movie making from the beginning.

Also wrote himself, in addition to Marvel Studios having some say, as a must be involved and paid producers into the contracts where he sold the varying characters' use to other studios beside him being not the sole owner, here that alone would get him into legal trouble. In my POV a bully with good skills to sell  himself in interviews and such, without the knowledge & ability he thinks he has.

 

 

 

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Doesn't long range forecasting showcase the bottom floor? So wouldn't that suggest Pikachu has a really good chance of opening higher? Like over 100M-150M Range?

Definitely not. Long term range has often be in line or overshot as well. Not to say this can't hit 100+. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Doesn't long range forecasting showcase the bottom floor? So wouldn't that suggest Pikachu has a really good chance of opening higher? Like over 100M-150M Range?

BOP's?  No, not to my knowledge. It is true that numbers often increase from forecast/tracking.  They can also go down, though.

 

As for having a "really good chance of opening higher", I'd say it's far too early to say "really good".  Also far too early to say "really good chance of opening a lot lower".

[Mulder]

It's very easy to tell who wasn't joking about the 200 million OW predictions.

[BudStarr]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

While noting that all films are different and that that I2 had the built in advantage of being a sequel, this does look pretty good for Pika Pika.  Seems to be broadly in line with BOP's 90m forecast. 

So great work there. 👍

Thanks @Porthos - that means a lot coming from you. Seemed to me like it was heading towards lining up closely to that forecast as well. A lot of time to go yet of course.

42 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I know endgame is gonna break all the records and I know that’s much more interesting to follow but I really appreciate you doing this because I really wanted to see how detective pikachu was fairing also

 

thanks bruh 

Thanks. I agree. I’m definitely looking forward to seeing some records being broken next week but I’m also really interested in this one because, while we know Endgame will be enormous, Pikachu is more unpredictable and no one is sure exactly where it’s going to land. Though it will be fascinating to see exactly HOW big Endgame can go. I’m astonished at the numbers that keep coming in day after day.

7 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

Thanks a lot for this. I think I found the 2018 archive, the one called Fandango Pulse Purchase History, but it doesn't contain Detective Pikachu's data; where did you get those numbers? Also, it looks like the Incredibles 2 data is split into 2D, 3D and IMAX 2D, so your comparison is including all three ticket types, right?

Yeah, I definitely made sure to include all ticket types - a lot of adding up! The Detective Pikachu numbers are here on the Advance Sales spreadsheet that gets brought up in this thread from time to time: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/htmlview#gid=209330330

[terrestrial]

13 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Doesn't long range forecasting showcase the bottom floor? So wouldn't that suggest Pikachu has a really good chance of opening higher? Like over 100M-150M Range?

No, in my post I added 'if expected to be a success', means, if the reviews, the hype train gets in a positive motion.

Expectations created by certain details early on, middle time before release, later... seem to get fulfilled, or even better, surpassed, the hype for whatever reasons increases. 

Edited April 17, 2019 by terrestrial

[DAJK]

16 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Doesn't long range forecasting showcase the bottom floor? So wouldn't that suggest Pikachu has a really good chance of opening higher? Like over 100M-150M Range?

I've heard people saying both lol. Some claim (when they want) that it always over-predicts when they expect a movie to perform worse than long range tracking (and always seem to cite MPR). Other times I've heard it always underpredicts. So basically my advice is to just take their tracking as a mere prediction (an educated guess, but still a guess) that can fluctuate one way or another. 

[cdsacken]

11 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It's very easy to tell who wasn't joking about the 200 million OW predictions.

Yep. Granted if this has absolutely insane reviews (95 RT, 80 MC) perhaps 125+ OW is possible. If reviews and WOM aren't amazing 60 is possible too. A Wrinkle in Time/Solo show reception/reviews can definitely affect predictions from several weeks out. 

 

[terrestrial]

Weekend prediction BO Report

http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20190417.html

 

Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	The Curse of La Llorona (Warner / New Line)	$21.0 M	$21.0 M	NEW	3
2	Shazam! (Warner / New Line)	$16.2 M	$120.5 M	-34%	3
3	Breakthrough (Fox)	$12.0 M	$16.0 M	NEW	1
4	Little (Universal)	$9.3 M	$30.0 M	-40%	2
5	Captain Marvel (Disney)	$7.3 M	$398.3 M	-15%	7
6	Dumbo (Disney)	$6.7 M	$101.5 M	-29%	4
7	Hellboy (Lionsgate / Summit)	$4.7 M	$20.7 M	-61%	2
8	Pet Sematary (Paramount)	$4.1 M	$48.8 M	-58%	3
9	Penguins (Disneynature)	$4.0 M	$5.9 M	NEW	1
10	Missing Link (Annapurna Pictures)	$3.9 M	$12.7 M	-34%	2
11	Us (Universal)	$3.4 M	$169.7 M	-50%	5

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, terrestrial said:

Weekend prediction BO Report

http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20190417.html

 

Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	The Curse of La Llorona (Warner / New Line)	$21.0 M	$21.0 M	NEW	3
2	Shazam! (Warner / New Line)	$16.2 M	$120.5 M	-34%	3
3	Breakthrough (Fox)	$12.0 M	$16.0 M	NEW	1
4	Little (Universal)	$9.3 M	$30.0 M	-40%	2
5	Captain Marvel (Disney)	$7.3 M	$398.3 M	 -15%	 7
6	Dumbo (Disney)	$6.7 M	$101.5 M	-29%	4
7	Hellboy (Lionsgate / Summit)	$4.7 M	$20.7 M	-61%	2
8	Pet Sematary (Paramount)	$4.1 M	$48.8 M	-58%	3
9	Penguins (Disneynature)	$4.0 M	$5.9 M	NEW	1
10	Missing Link (Annapurna Pictures)	$3.9 M	$12.7 M	-34%	2
11	Us (Universal)	$3.4 M	$169.7 M	-50%	5

I think Dumbo's drop is too low. I'm expecting more like 40% drop.

[Boxofficerules]

It's a holiday weekend though, isn't it? That might lower drops.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 9 days before release)

Fri:   1 sellout/357 showings (+0/+11)    [IW: 0/215]

Sat:  0 sellouts/354 showings (+0/+12)   [IW: 0/216]

Sun: 0 sellouts/329 showings (+0/+1)     [IW: 0/209]

 

 

I don’t remember if you mentioned it, but is this the adjusted or exact for EG?

 

If adjusted, can you provide the exacts (additionally) for a more direct comparison?  

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I don’t remember if you mentioned it, but is this the adjusted or exact for EG?

 

If adjusted, can you provide the exacts (additionally) for a more direct comparison?  

Pretty sure it's neither! 

 

I think the numbers provided are the absolutes. Not adjusted or exacts.

 

Also he's sleeping atm, so probably have to wait a few hours for comps  

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Pretty sure it's neither! 

 

I think the numbers provided are the absolutes. Not adjusted or exacts.

 

Also he's sleeping atm, so probably have to wait a few hours for comps  

 

Well I mean adjusted or exact by the theater totals. I know he’s tracking more theaters now, so is the total showings for the same theaters as IW or with the new theaters added  

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Through the first 6 updates on Pulse tracking, Endgame is well ahead of yesterday. The target today is 35000.

 

April 16 - 6 Updates: 2204

April 17 - 6 Updates: 3263

[filmlover]

Secret Life of Pets 2 already selling tickets and has already sold a handful of seats here even though it's still more than 1.5 months away. Would be impressive if it didn't dip too much from the first.

[cdsacken]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Secret Life of Pets 2 already selling tickets and has already sold a handful of seats here even though it's still more than 1.5 months away. Would be impressive if it didn't dip too much from the first.

It's going to be super popular. My daughter won't stop talking about it. Her friends at school want to see it too. Lol so do I

 

[YM!]

25 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Secret Life of Pets 2 already selling tickets and has already sold a handful of seats here even though it's still more than 1.5 months away. Would be impressive if it didn't dip too much from the first.

It’ll definitely benefit from being the first major animation since Dragon 3, and knowing Universal’s marketing, I honestly don’t think it’ll drop that hard. In fact, I suspect it and TS4 will be really close to each other number wise.