New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[JB33]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The calendar is not worse, just different from TFA. It is still receiving a crapload of holiday boost and it will have the boost for a longer stretch than TFA or Rogue One. 

Yeah this is how I see it. The calendar excuse only worked during its first week, when it was implied that the rest of the holidays would make up for it. Well, it's not really doing that.

[That One Girl]

happy birthday @CoolioD1

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The calendar is not worse, just different from TFA. It is still receiving a crapload of holiday boost and it will have the boost for a longer stretch than TFA or Rogue One. 

Yes, but it barely got any boost when there wasn't the main Christmas competition released to take up a large amount of the OW screens.  TFA and RO had a longer time boosted, with more screens, without their main competition released (not to forget, they had weaker competition).

 

I'd still say the calendar effect is pretty negligible, though.

Edited December 30, 2017 by The Last Panda

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, The Last Panda said:

Yes, but it barely got any boost when there wasn't the main Christmas competition released to take up a large amount of the OW screens.  TFA and RO had a longer time boosted, with more screens, without their main competition released (not to forget, they had weaker competition).

 

TFA and Rogue One did not have a longer boost. Last Jedi will have boost all the way to next Thursday. The movie is simply not reaching the fanboy predictions around here. People just need to eat crow and admit we got it wrong. 

[The Panda]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

TFA and Rogue One did not have a longer boost. Last Jedi will have boost all the way to next Thursday. The movie is simply not reaching the fanboy predictions around here. People just need to eat crow and admit we got it wrong. 

I didn't say longer boost.  I said longer boost without their main competition taking up screens.  There's a difference.

 

I've already accepted it's not reaching my original predictions, but I do think there are a number of factors going into it.  And I already mentioned I thought the calendar argument is probably the smallest one (though still a slight factor).

[TwoMisfits]

I'm gonna cry a little foul on the "stronger" competition...there's ONE movie that's a hit this holiday season, outside of TLJ.  The normal musical is under the norm, the normal animated is WAY below the norm, the supers and Pixar were out of the way and pretty much over, etc...

 

Plus, TLJ (vs the other Star Wars movies) has the now enormous Moviepass advantage (we're moving to 2 million folks who can represent up to $20-$30M in potential box office PER DAY)...it now costs nothing except time to get folks to see TLJ 5-7 times...that's HUGE vs other editions...unlike all the holiday releases, it also has all the screens to take advantage of this Moviepass perk, b/c unlike Jumanji, TLJ's got 3-5 screens still, even at midsize theaters, so it's not full/virtual sellouts at preferred times before the day starts (like Jumanji is)...and it's NOT taking advantage of that...

 

We can't dismiss Moviepass (especially with all the new folks who got it for Xmas)...TLJ is still falling despite that huge advantage for this season...that's not good...

Edited December 30, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

20 hours ago, JB33 said:

What? A drop on Friday for TLJ? No that's not happening. I wonder if Deadline is purposely doing this to manufacture positive headlines (maybe pushed by Disney/Lucasfilm) amid all the backlash and negativity.

 

20 hours ago, SoSaysI said:

Those numbers for Jumanji and TLJ both seem low.

 

20 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Yeah I don’t see a decrease Friday lol that makes no sense. A lot of people do still work and Friday night is off for them. It just wouldn’t make any sense.

 

20 hours ago, FTF said:

1:30pm pst, that seems way too early (as usual) to make estimates.

 

20 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Deadline being Deadline again.

 

20 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Insert Pacino snorting a huge pile of cocaine in Scarface gif here.

 

That's DL when they make their weekend predictions.

 

19 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

If I believed Deadline I would still have my $28.1M from last Friday to look at when I saw TLJ’s dailies. So yeah, they fucking suck at this. On the West theaters are still showing their first showings of the day! 

 

19 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Thank you Deadline right? And yes, flushed right down the shitter. Just clogged up the shitter with those in fact. And it overflowed. And flooded the house. And I evacuated, forced to stay away for a day or so while the mess was sorted out. While asleep on the couch at a neighbors house I was bitten by a radioactive spider. And now I’m Spider-Man. My movie hits theaters in 2019, Spider-Man: The Toilet Clogging. 

 

18 hours ago, a2knet said:

Maybe Deadline is over-correcting after last Friday's horrid memories. Guessing 2.5-5% bump for 20-20.5m.

 

18 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

I agree, it seems a bit silly it could make less on a Friday than a Wednesday really.

 

17 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Lol at the TLJ dropping, this obviously will not happen, expecting $ 21 - 23M friday

[NoLegMan]

It didn't perform like it could have, many of those factors have already been said. But regardless it's still one of the most successful films of all time, even with the WOM Being mixed. I also don't think it will hurt the SW brand, and I also don't think Rian will lose his trilogy. Not reaching fanboys expectations. Doesn't make it less of a successful movie. Bad WOM and still crossing the billion dollar mark I'm sure every studio that makes films would love that.

[WrathOfHan]

@Obi-Shawn any word on the January 12 TCs?

[heynow]

what is the most likely 3 day weekend boxoffice this weekend for Jumanji and TLJ?  Where is the best place to find this info?

Any help appreciated.

Thanks.

[the beast]

10 minutes ago, heynow said:

what is the most likely 3 day weekend boxoffice this weekend for Jumanji and TLJ?  Where is the best place to find this info?

Any help appreciated.

Thanks.

Projections for Jumanji are $50m-52m and For TLJ around $55m-57m and can find projections on Deadline or pro Box office and we have a thread  for predicting weekend numbers for the top 10 or so each week and can make own projections based on past drops from similar movies from a similar time of month 

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by the beast

[Ryan Reynolds]

8 minutes ago, heynow said:

what is the most likely 3 day weekend boxoffice this weekend for Jumanji and TLJ?  Where is the best place to find this info?

Any help appreciated.

Thanks.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/early-4-day-weekend-estimates-star-wars-last-jedi-cracks-top-10-time-chart-jumanji-welcome-jungle-challenge-top-spot/

[Johnny Tran]

a shade over 19M?   Really?   That's pretty damn low.  No,  I don't believe TLJ is going to hurt the Star Wars brand but my question of overseas..  did it help further the Star Wars brand? 

 

Nope.

[bamajagala]

I guess expectations are everything. For a movie that's burned off 484m of demand and still beating a movie that's only burned off 137m on a daily basis, and calling one's performance "meh" or worse, and the other "amazing, is to me funny in a backwards sort of way.

 

Sing was treated the same way against RO last year and The Revenant against TFA.

 

 

[Rebeccas]

Just now, bamajagala said:

I guess expectations are everything. For a movie that's burned off 484m of demand and still beating a movie that's only burned off 137m on a daily basis, and calling one's performance "meh" or worse, and the other "amazing, is to me funny in a backwards sort of way.

 

Sing was treated the same way against RO last year and The Revenant against TFA.

 

 

One is a SW movie and the other isn’t 

[Johnny Tran]

Just now, bamajagala said:

I guess expectations are everything. For a movie that's burned off 484m of demand and still beating a movie that's only burned off 137m on a daily basis, and calling one's performance "meh" or worse, and the other "amazing, is to me funny in a backwards sort of way.

 

Sing was treated the same way against RO last year and The Revenant against TFA.

 

 

It's all relative. It's like when a horror movie cost $30M and makes $700M.  That is an eye opener. A movie that needs $800M+ to break even and people are going to expect different results. TLJ will make Disney a bunch of money.  But it's making less especially overseas than everyone thought.  That's why these discussions are happening.

[TigerPaw]

8 minutes ago, heynow said:

what is the most likely 3 day weekend boxoffice this weekend for Jumanji and TLJ?  Where is the best place to find this info?

Any help appreciated.

Thanks.

Hi,

Deadline, Forbes, Variety etc all have detailed writeups for the weekend. The writeups provide colours.

BoxOfficeMojo/The Numbers are nore numbers driven, and thus information about the film and audiences reactions are not detailed.

 

Anyway, This is a longer 4-Day weekend.

 

I might get flamed for this, but if you are new to box office tracking, Deadline is a good place to start. Their weekend write up is detailed and the numbers get updated every several hours.

 

Here is the link: http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-jumanji-new-years-weekend-box-office-2018-1202233711/

[John Marston]

I can see Episode 9 dropping to 450m or even 400m

[hw64]

3 minutes ago, bamajagala said:

I guess expectations are everything. For a movie that's burned off 484m of demand and still beating a movie that's only burned off 137m on a daily basis, and calling one's performance "meh" or worse, and the other "amazing, is to me funny in a backwards sort of way.

 

Sing was treated the same way against RO last year and The Revenant against TFA.

Well yeah, that's what happens when you remove pretty much all context from their box office runs and just think of them as film #1 and film #2. You can conclude all sorts of silly things from removing every possible little bit of context there is.

[fmpro]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

I can see Episode 9 dropping to 450m or even 400m

No way.. No freaking way