Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

i don't recall non-trollish and thoughtful sub-600 projections really. under-TA came in vogue in TLJ's 3rd weekend and for good reason. had TLJ actually done 20m this weekend instead of 24+, under-TA would have been more likely than not. Right now too it's not looking at much higher than 630.

Were the estimates revised up? Or, did Empire give some new numbers? Isn't Last Jedi's estimate at $23.55M DOM for the weekend?

[dxmatrixdt]

Challenge - predict top 20 Monday grossers to 3 decimal places. 

[dxmatrixdt]

how did Sunday sway?

[MattW]

My Jumanji pre-release guess was low 100s, while my IT guess was mid 100s, so in that sense Jumanji is a bigger surprise.  However I think that if I had to put a probability on each one making over 300m it would have been closer between the two.  

 

But also IT opening huge means the surprise came all at once while with Jumanji there was nothing surprising about the opening and it was about a week into it that it really started to surprise so the more gradual nature kind of lessens the surprise factor.

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

how did Sunday sway?

2018/01/05	-	$413,942	+102%	562	$737	$32,970,033	64
2018/01/06	-	$667,668	+61%	562	$1,188	$33,637,701	65
2018/01/07	-	$490,421	-27%	562	$873	$34,128,122	66

 

Lady Bird was up 18.5% over Friday.  It should drop around 50% today and average that roughly through the weekdays to gross 1M and surpass 35M total after Thursday.  Lady Bird expanded 170 locations this week, and with a new charge of prints coming in, look for Lady Bird to be lucky to retain all 562 location.  Perhaps it looses 100 and adds 38 to make 500 crisp locations for MLK weekend.  Atonement ended with 50.93

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

2018/01/05	-	$413,942	+102%	562	$737	$32,970,033	64
2018/01/06	-	$667,668	+61%	562	$1,188	$33,637,701	65
2018/01/07	-	$490,421	-27%	562	$873	$34,128,122	66

 

Lady Bird was up 18.5% over Friday.  It should drop around 50% today and average that roughly through the weekdays to gross 1M and surpass 35M total after Thursday.  Lady Bird expanded 170 locations this week, and with a new charge of prints coming in, look for Lady Bird to be lucky to retain all 562 location.  Perhaps it looses 100 and adds 38 to make 500 crisp locations for MLK weekend.  Atonement ended with 50.93

May i conclude that lady bird was better received by GA than 3billboard? 

Both movies have similar expansion pattern and has been put up similar daily number initially, but 3 billboard slowly losing steam while lady bird was better hold across x-mas/NY, leading to about 8m ahead of 3B.

[a2k]

IT, GO, JUM, WONDR and HIDDEN FIGURES* were the 5 biggest surprises of 2017 ... in any order.

 

*Will ignore the limited 25 theater 2016 release for HF. Just like if The Post over-performs am not gonna consider it in my 2017 surprise list.

[PDC1987]

2 hours ago, New Year New Panda said:

BOT’s always been reactionary, I’m pretty sure people called PP3 and TGS flops after their OW.  Both are going to end up being modest hits.

And PP3 is going to be more than an modest hit. It already left the first film in the dust and is days away from hitting double it's production cost domestically.

[stuart360]

Its pretty funny seeing Jumanji kick freaking Star Wars arse, even though it released only 1 week later, who wouild ever of seen that coming a few weeks ago.

[RyneOh1040]

3 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

All valid points. And, as usual around here, a very good discussion. Refreshing to discuss big successes rather than harp on disappointments and flops too.

 

Get Out is horror too. Openly cerebral and politicized horror at that. I'm still shocked at how well it did. IT to me is in the vein of Stranger Things whereas Get Out is in the vein of Rosemary's Baby, Being John Malkovich and Manchurian Candidate. Much weirder and wackier for a large audience to embrace as much as the GA did.

 

Which brings me to what still is arguably the biggest shock in the history of the box office, The Exorcist. I'll never fail to be floored by how much that juggernaut grossed. And, it's not just R-rated, it was nearly X-rated at the time. And, even today, is far more disgusting and repulsive in spurts than anything in IT. IT could almost get by with a PG-13 with some thrifty editing. The Exorcist... Could not.

Fair, but I find It to be more horror and Get Out to be a psychological thriller.  Get Out makes you think and gets a lot of discussion going.  It is what your nightmares are made of, and something if you see as a kid, would always stick with you.  It's big teeth and blood and demons.  That too me is a harder sell (though again, you can argue it had a big built in fan base).   They're both great stories and a lot of fun to follow but yeah for me I give the edge to It.

[Noctis]

I give the edge to It, too. For a horror movie to open to $123m, its legs were fantastic for the genre.

[That One Girl]

Go back in time, start an It over Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League club back in June and see how many people laugh at you.

[MCKillswitch123]

Yes, It is definitely the surprise of 2017 for me. Get Out and Jumanji aren't too far off, and neither is Wonder Woman. Split is also a sadly forgotten big surprise, probably because GO followed it immediately, but it's hard to put in words how jaw dropping it was to see a horror movie in January perform the way Split did.

 

And speaking of It, @CJohn, do you think Insidious' blockbuster performance here in PT was helped by It + Annabelle 2 both increasing people's appetite for horror? Cause ever since The Conjuring 2, it seems people go a lot more to horror films, but last year, there was a downright explosion of horror here in the country, and those two were at the forefront. I think that they really opened the doors for horror to perform stronger than ever.

 

@That One Guy Make it an "It AND Jumanji 2 > both Thor 3 and Justice League" club and you're the most laughed at poster of all time.

Edited January 8, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[mikee11]

why no new numbers today? when will actual weekend numbers come out? 

[hw64]

13 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

why no new numbers today? when will actual weekend numbers come out? 

Now starting to come through.

[a2k]

LADY BIRD should make it to 50+ dom I guess, looking at legs so far (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=ladybird.htm)

 

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by a2knet

[cannastop]

28 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

why no new numbers today? when will actual weekend numbers come out? 

You're new to this, aren't you?

[MaxAggressor]

 

Molly's Game was estimated at 7 million for the weekend so it's down by around 0.14 million.

[Noctis]

BoxOffice reporting $23,187,594 for TLJ.

[MaxAggressor]