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That One Guy

Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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3 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

That Endgame number feels kinda weak, considering the extra footage. 

I thought the re-release was next weekend? 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I thought the re-release was next weekend? 

From what I can gather it's the 28th.

Edited by cookie

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In other news, Rocketman chances for 100m DOM looks really good with this drop. And look at that Aladdin and JW3 holds....latter is developing great late legs, guess the E3 show stuff is helping it too.

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33 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Friday

KoTM: $1mn ( +41% / -55.2%)

 

unless it goes up that's just a 28% Fri bump.

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It's been too long since we had a non superhero film open to 45+m Friday.

Feels good man

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There might well be a bit of “well we thought the third one was the end, you implied it was” attitude from some sectors. However, the film is so damned good that those people will eventually come out when they hear how good it is. Word of mouth and repeat viewings will surely be strong. 

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So final numbers around $ 47-48M

 

Yeah could be better, it’s sad it won’t reach the tracking. But still a great number, should open better than TS3 and finish with around $ 400M. 

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So, Toy Story 4 will. . . do fine.

 

In other news, water is wet and Bot overreacts. 

 

Can't wait to get botsplained on how bad TS4 opening will be compared to tracking. . . .

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10 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

So final numbers around $ 47-48M

 

Yeah could be better, it’s sad it won’t reach the tracking. But still a great number, should open better than TS3 and finish with around $ 400M. 

So Early trend were right ... @Menor was expecting $37 To $39 true friday .. 

 

Saturday looking good .. pulse presales are 34,943

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I said about a month or so ago that because Toy Story 4, Spider-man FFH, and The Lion King are releasing only two weeks apart from each other, one of them will fail to reach a billion. My bet was Spider-man but seems like Toy Story 4 will end up being the one. Maybe FFH could also fail to reach a billion too because everyone is saving up for TLK.

 

I'm excited for next year's boxoffice so much more than this year because the much weaker slate means that it is easier for us to get overperformers. I mean it has to be the least crowded year since 2014 right?

FFH is more certain to do billie than CM ever was.

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59 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

That Endgame number feels kinda weak, considering the extra footage. 

It lost 1/3rd of screen, the week on week drop in retained screens was 17% and growth from Thursday 70%.

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7 hours ago, Porthos said:

@SteveJaros WOZ RIGHT!!!!!!!!! :ohmygod:


 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

If so, I take no joy in it. Have been a "Toy Story" fan for 24 years, saw TS4 yesterday and really enjoyed it.

 

But I do think that in their haste to have fresh content for Disney+, Disney made a big mistake. Movies like TS4, Aladdin live-action, Frozen 2, and TLK should have been THE event animated/live action remake movies of a given year for Disney, like Beauty and the Beast, Nemo 2 and Incredibles 2 were.


Too much Disney too soon, especially with Aladdin still going pretty strong. 

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1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Friday

 

TS 4: $47mn

Child Play: $5.9mn

Aladdin: $3.8mn

SLOP 2: $3.15mn

MIBI: $3.1mn

RM: $1.55mn

Anna: $1.35mn

JW 3: $1.1mn

KoTM: $1mn

DP: $1mn

 

 

Endgame: $510k

That would mean that SLOP2 increased just 3.8% and 54.6% below last Friday.

And Aladdin up 55.1% and a drop of 20.5% compared to last Friday.

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3 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

So Early trend were right ... @Menor was expecting $37 To $39 true friday .. 

 

Saturday looking good .. pulse presales are 34,943

Wish I had stick to $36-38mn as well that early numbers suggested but numbers did really well in 7-10 AM frame, co-incidently even Menor felt same.

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2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Wish I had stick to $36-38mn as well that early numbers suggested but numbers did really well in 7-10 AM frame, co-incidently even Menor felt same.

its ok bro ..  it happens ... Yep Numbers did really well in early morning shows ... 

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6 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

So Early trend were right ... @Menor was expecting $37 To $39 true friday .. 

 

Saturday looking good .. pulse presales are 34,943

Yeah, yesterday was a rollercoaster lol.

 

Saturday looking good indeed, hopefully could manage a 10-15% increase. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Justice League opened to 93M OW after tracking had it in the 110-120M range and was unanimously claimed as a disaster.  Tracking had this in the 150-200M range and is going to come in at least 30M below the low end of that range.

One had a 300M budget, didn't even hit 100 on OW despite being the literal equivalent of The Avengers for DC and its performance out of the gate made it look like 700M WW would be a reach for it (and ergo, it didn't even get there). It probably still made WB some profit, but it was likely by the skin of its teeth. This one, on the other hand, has a 200M budget and will likely make 800-900M WW, and will be one of the few animated movies to open north of 100 despite being a completely unwanted fourthquel. Will also be the highest opening Toy Story movie and in the top 5 animated OW's ever. And it is nowhere NEAR the level of high profile that Justice League was. It's almost like comparing Shrek to Star Wars.

 

Disappointment is one thing. Disaster is a whole different thing. An Age Of Ultron is a disappointment. A Dark Phoenix is a disaster.

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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I for one would love to see Aladdin breakout even further and hit $350mn. 

 

This weekend could go on to add $13.5mn ($289mn), which will be under 25% drop.

 

Solo did 2.45x after its 5th weekend (overall 1.5x). Aladdin assuming $350mn would be 2.84x after 1st weekend; extrapolating those will give 4.6x for Aladdin after 5th weekend i.e. $62mn.

 

Bingoo.

 

Warning: The above post is just for case of speculation; only after Aladdin did 350, this will be used as bragging rights.

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