Weekend Thread: Free Guy 28.4, Don't Breathe 10.6, Jungle Cruise 9, Respect 8.8, TSS 7.75

[Cmasterclay]

Predictions for Shang-Chi and October if nothing changes, just like I did with August (all domestic opening):

 

Shang Chi - 36m

Dear Evan Hansen - 9m

Many Saints of Newark - 19m

No Time To Die - 68m

Venom 2 - 54m

Halloween Kills - 38m

Last Duel - 12m (please move this, or else old-fashioned movies like this will never get funded again)

Dune - 29m

Jackass - 15m (think it is winding down)

Last Night in Soho - 11m

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

This weekend should at least give studios the confidence to not move anything back further. Too bad nobody seems likely to take advantage of September at this point, which is pretty much dead aside from Shang-Chi now that Venom abandoned the month.

Agreed, in many states Delta is peaking or about to peak, and still we are having good drops and decent openings like FG.

 

If right now numbers aren't collapsing i don't think they will after. Shang Chi for example i think it will be released in similar environment that FG which seems acceptable, after that things will probably start to get better again, no point to any move.

[Maggie]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Predictions for Shang-Chi and October if nothing changes, just like I did with August (all domestic opening):

 

Shang Chi - 36m

Dear Evan Hansen - 9m

Many Saints of Newark - 19m

No Time To Die - 68m

Venom 2 - 54m

Halloween Kills - 38m

Last Duel - 12m (please move this, or else old-fashioned movies like this will never get funded again)

Dune - 29m

Jackass - 15m (think it is winding down)

Last Night in Soho - 11m

All sound reasonable. except NTTD is a little high. NOw @WrathOfHan do this for the rest of the year. I miss your yearly predictions

Edited August 14, 2021 by Maggie

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

 

Last Duel - 12m (please move this, or else old-fashioned movies like this will never get funded again)

 

 

@filmlover

 

Quote

Too bad nobody seems likely to take advantage of September at this point, which is pretty much dead aside from Shang-Chi now that Venom abandoned the month.

 

Ding dong, we have a match. If there's a movie that should move up to September, it's this one cause, from what I could see, it has the least buzz of the October movies and no built-in fandom to show up no matter what, unlike Bond, Venom, Halloween, Dune, Jackass. 

Edited August 14, 2021 by Valonqar

[Maggie]

Let's not forget about the vax proof thing. That could lead to a huge drop in admissions

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Why would you like an under $20M international opening especially given how bleak numbers have been in general for movies across the board…

 

If it’s just to call RR a flop, this movie can be a success and we can still have a discussion over which Hollywood stars have any true box office power and which are stars because of an IP behind them…

International is looking pretty bad, but not that bad. Not bad enough that this movie doing under $20 mil would be due to the pandemic itself. Jungle Cruise still managed $27 mil intl opening and I think the bar for this movie is a bit lower than that. ($20-$22 mil)

[filmlover]

Jackass moving up a month to September 24th feels like a good choice to alleviate October a bit. Should easily manage a #1 debut against Dear Evan Hansen (which feels like another Broadway-hit-turned-movie-flop in waiting anyway).

[Eric Duncan]

33 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah, you're right. Still, would like under $20 mil intl opening.

Did Ryan Reynolds piss on your porch or something?

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, Free Eric said:

Did Ryan Reynolds piss on your porch or something?

Watching Deadpool 2 was like watching Reynolds do that for 2 hours, so yes.

 

Edit: Honestly, I don't think this movie will be worse than mediocre and my boxoffice hopes for this are no different to what they were for Jungle Cruise (although I like Collet-Serra way more than Levy so didn't wanna talk too much shit about that).

Edited August 14, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[DAJK]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Jackass moving up a month to September 24th feels like a good choice to alleviate October a bit. Should easily manage a #1 debut against Dear Evan Hansen (which feels like another Broadway-hit-turned-movie-flop in waiting anyway).

I think Dear Evan Hansen looks kinda good lol, think it’s being underestimated. Could see a high teens opening, 70 total.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I think Dear Evan Hansen looks kinda good lol, think it’s being underestimated. Could see a high teens opening, 70 total.

I dunno, given the very hit/miss success rate of movie musicals I get the feeling this will be an especially hard sell (even without Ben Platt's goofy casting) given that the plot centers around a topic as difficult and depressing as teen suicide. You know the ads are gonna do everything they can to hide that development (and the plot basically).

Edited August 14, 2021 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Predictions for Shang-Chi and October if nothing changes, just like I did with August (all domestic opening):

 

Shang Chi - 36m

Dear Evan Hansen - 9m

Many Saints of Newark - 19m

No Time To Die - 68m

Venom 2 - 54m

Halloween Kills - 38m

Last Duel - 12m (please move this, or else old-fashioned movies like this will never get funded again)

Dune - 29m

Jackass - 15m (think it is winding down)

Last Night in Soho - 11m

 

Shang-Chi: 42M (48-50M 4 day)

 

Malignant: 8M

The Card Counter: 4M

 

Cry Macho: 7M (good luck getting the 65+ crowd out to theater in 5 weeks)

The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 3M (same as Battle of the Sexes unless its festival reception is outstanding)

Blue Bayou: 2M

 

Dear Evan Hansen: 18M (smaller scale Wonder imo)

 

Many Saints of Newark: 24M

Addams Family 2: 14M (I'm assuming HT4 is sold to Netflix)

The Jesus Music: 6M (randomly got this trailer at Space Jam; Lionsgate will pull some fuckery)

 

No Time to Die: 75M

 

Venom: 60M

Halloween Kills: 36M

The Last Duel: 14M

 

Dune: 35M (unless the Max release is pulled)

Jackass Forever: 17M

Ron's Gone Wrong: 12M

 

Last Night in Soho: 18M

 

 

 

 

26 minutes ago, Maggie said:

All sound reasonable. except NTTD is a little high. NOw @WrathOfHan do this for the rest of the year. I miss your yearly predictions

Let's hope the schedule remains stable come December, and they shall return...

Edited August 14, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[poweranimals]

18 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Let's not forget about the vax proof thing. That could lead to a huge drop in admissions

Yeah, almost 50% of their audience. Possibly more since it's the unvaccinated that are less likely to care about Covid.

[Cmasterclay]

Last Night In Soho also a film that weirdly benefited from the pandemic delay, I like the marketing strategy of having the somewhat obscure indie star of your movie turn into an internationally recognized megastar off a TV show.

[Ryan Reynolds]

17 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Let's not forget about the vax proof thing. That could lead to a huge drop in admissions

Likely hurt horror films , young poc have low Vax rates

[Finnick]

17 minutes ago, Free Eric said:

Did Ryan Reynolds piss on your porch or something?

Nah, he is so salty of anything Disney related and he can't help to hide it. Dude just stop it. It is tiresome.

Edited August 14, 2021 by Finnick

[lorddemaxus]

If Newark is going $20 mil+, Cry Macho is going $15 mil OW. Both demos don't seem that for off from each other. And the demo it'll be going for don't give a shit about the pandemic anyways. I expect it to do better than the stuff that'll be mainly targeting younger audiences who live alongside the coasts (like Evan Hansen).

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Likely hurt horror films , young poc have low Vax rates

And the old demo is most likely to avoid theater even if vaccinated. Someone said the BO dropped 70% since the new rule. That's why i think the predictions for NTTD are too high.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Last Night In Soho also a film that weirdly benefited from the pandemic delay, I like the marketing strategy of having the somewhat obscure indie star of your movie turn into an internationally recognized megastar off a TV show.

It also has a great spot on Halloween weekend now and will get Dolby screens. 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

If Newark is going $20 mil+, Cry Macho is going $15 mil OW. Both demos don't seem that for off from each other. And the demo it'll be going for don't give a shit about the pandemic anyways. I expect it to do better than the stuff that'll be mainly targeting younger audiences who live alongside the coasts (like Evan Hansen).

Cry Macho demo is old and scared of the pandemic....or dead