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Eric Riley

Weekend Thread: Free Guy 28.4, Don't Breathe 10.6, Jungle Cruise 9, Respect 8.8, TSS 7.75

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Just now, filmlover said:

October is a nightmare now. We have:

 

1: Addams Family 2, Hotel Transylvania 4 (though that might be moving to streaming), Many Saints of Newark

8: No Time to Die

15: Halloween Kills, The Last Duel, Venom 2

22: Dune, Jackass Forever, Ron's Gone Wrong, The French Dispatch (limited)

29: Antlers, Last Night in Soho

 

I guess it makes sense September is dead if stuff is gonna get squeezed out due to limited screen space.

I'm very surprised Venom didn't move to Nov 24. October is a bloodbath

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People are underestimating the Sopranos movie, which I think can do 20m OW even despite HBO Max. Sopranos brand is bigger than ever and it is probably the film whose box office is gonna benefit the most from the pandemic delaying it given that like a million people binged the series for first time during COVID. Trailer views back it up. I'd put it on September 24th but might be too close to Cry Macho for the Warner honchos.

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6 minutes ago, Free Eric said:

Feel like Dune would do well on September 24, as it’s closer to the festival hype it’ll receive and has more breathing room before Bond. But of course, Max releases have a harsh ceiling no matter what, so I guess it doesn’t matter

 

As far as having any chance for theatrical money, it is the better call.  It's been advertised all summer in theaters, so giving those theaters an excuse to not fully close weekdays after Labor Day week (which I see coming with the current Sept slate), which may mean they don't restaff til Xmas, would probably be a good thing...I mean, I might keep moving it earlier in September, but that's b/c one movie can't carry a full 5 show/day schedule on all screens 7 days/week.  Right now, September is looking like this past winter, and we know Regal didn't bother with being open in the winter at all...

 

I mean, the October movies are piled on each other and may be opening into a reduced theatrical schedule blueprint...this seems like a path of madness, even if no one wants the "but September is gonna be bad" slots...with the way it is, October will be worse for everything packed in...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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The movie that I think can/should move up to Sept. 24th would be Jackass Forever.  There is still plenty of time to run heavy marketing between now and then (especially with fall sports like Football kicking off) to put up as good of a number that they would a month later.  

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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Here is where I think most people miss a huge factor.  Yes, most films make 80% of their box office revenue by then, but that data is under the old system where there was a 90 day window (or really like 60 days to digital).  

 

You can't just then cut the window down to 17 days and think that there will be a linear revenue that matches with the old data.  

 

If you cut down to 17 days, you have to account that people (especially the casual moviegoer) will be conditioned to completely skip theatrical.  

 

For example, let's say in the old system in week 2 a family is deciding what to do for the weekend.  The decision to go watch a movie in a theater knowing that you won't be able to see it at home for another 6-10 weeks is going to tilt to taking the family to a theater to see the movie.  

 

Now in the scenario where the window is 17 days, if a family has to decide to go see that movie in theaters in week 2 or just wait 3 more days and they can pay $19.99 at home, what effect is that going to have on their decision?  

Agree to that but since PA will exist in future regardless, I think the revenue maximization would be around 17 days window. Day and date is bad for boxoffice, 45 days is not great for PA.

 

If you think 45 days or more, lets just agree to disagree.

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Just now, EmpireCity said:

The movie that I think can/should move up to Sept. 24th would be Jackass Forever.  There is still plenty of time to run heavy marketing between now and then (especially with fall sports like Football kicking off) to put up as good of a number that they would a month later.  

 

That trailer has also run on multiple theatrical summer movies, so it could move...it's also making "only so much" no matter when it releases, and maybe more if subscribers all only have JA as the new movie to go to for a weekend...b/c it sure would never be many people's 1st choices against any fall release you pick...

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3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The movie that I think can/should move up to Sept. 24th would be Jackass Forever.  There is still plenty of time to run heavy marketing between now and then (especially with fall sports like Football kicking off) to put up as good of a number that they would a month later.  

I get the trailer with everything I see now, so I hope they move it up just for my sake.

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Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Agree to that but since PA will exist in future regardless, I think the revenue maximization would be around 17 days window. Day and date is bad for boxoffice, 45 days is not great for PA.

 

If you think 45 days or more, lets just agree to disagree.

 

But 17 days is 80% of box office b/c folks know movies won't be free for a few months, so they prioritize seeing them so they can discuss them...if they are PA at 17 days, there may be both less rush to the movies and then possibly less rush to PA b/c you're again gonna say "well, now it's only a few more days to free"...it's gonna be hard to double window anything b/c you split the waits and make them seem shorter and thus the film viewing immediacy less valuable...

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5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

People are underestimating the Sopranos movie, which I think can do 20m OW even despite HBO Max. Sopranos brand is bigger than ever and it is probably the film whose box office is gonna benefit the most from the pandemic delaying it given that like a million people binged the series for first time during COVID. Trailer views back it up. I'd put it on September 24th but might be too close to Cry Macho for the Warner honchos.

I’m one of those people watching it for the first time. Hoping to be done with at least season 2 or 3 by the time Newark drops

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Ultimately the studios are going to go to whatever model they think maximizes their revenue. IMO that would seem to suggest a dedicated theatrical window that they will figure out (I expect once their share of the revenue declines relative to the Movie theater that is when they will look to offer a movie on PVOD) and then a PVOD release and eventually a free release.

 

Also, good on Disney for really putting a push behind FG, I saw alot of ads for it. Now I am not going into movie theaters right now so i will have to wait for it to go to streaming, but it looks fun,

 

Much like FG is not a negative for JC, I expect SC will not be a negative for FG. Have to assume Disney will have those 2 paired as double features. And that might even be a positive for SC.

 

 

 

Edited by RamblinRed
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The problem I have heard with Disney is there is a real, actual war going on between upper level execs including Chapek and the creative heads like Feige, Horn and Kennedy.  

 

The Chapek crowd seems to be listening to a few VC and billionaire hedge fund types that think the way of the future for Disney is to abandon theatrical entirely (or have it as a novelty) and go full into streaming.  Their contention is that even PA should be abandoned and everything should be released day and date on Disney+ for free.  They see the movies and shows as nothing more than a product to shovel into consumers mouths as much and as quickly as possible to maximize subscriptions.  

 

Creators and talent are obviously appalled at this line of thinking.  Even though it is Disney and you can lol and call everything they make manipulative product, the creators and talent don't see it that way at all.  They make movies to show theatrically and are all in on the magic of cinema.  

 

You have seen this all bleed out publicly from the reports of Feige being livid, the fight with Scarlett, and now the Shang-Chi crew getting in on the fight.  

 

I don't think that ultimately Chapek has the power to win this war.  Iger still carries most of the power and is watching it play out hoping he doesn't have to step in, but I think ultimately he will side with the creators and talent if pushed to that level.  

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

People are underestimating the Sopranos movie, which I think can do 20m OW even despite HBO Max. Sopranos brand is bigger than ever and it is probably the film whose box office is gonna benefit the most from the pandemic delaying it given that like a million people binged the series for first time during COVID. Trailer views back it up. I'd put it on September 24th but might be too close to Cry Macho for the Warner honchos.

Now that Venom is delayed, it'll get PLFs with ease on Oct 1, especially if HT4 goes to streaming.

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18 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

People are underestimating the Sopranos movie, which I think can do 20m OW even despite HBO Max. Sopranos brand is bigger than ever and it is probably the film whose box office is gonna benefit the most from the pandemic delaying it given that like a million people binged the series for first time during COVID. Trailer views back it up. I'd put it on September 24th but might be too close to Cry Macho for the Warner honchos.

I don't see any huge trailer views for it from a quick YouTube search but I agree that the Sopranos brand should draw solid business. 

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25 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

People are underestimating the Sopranos movie, which I think can do 20m OW even despite HBO Max. Sopranos brand is bigger than ever and it is probably the film whose box office is gonna benefit the most from the pandemic delaying it given that like a million people binged the series for first time during COVID. Trailer views back it up. I'd put it on September 24th but might be too close to Cry Macho for the Warner honchos.


Feels more like a 20m total gross to me. Are people really gonna rush to the theater for it?

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1 minute ago, Plain Old Tele said:


Feels more like a 20m total gross to me. Are people really gonna rush to the theater for it?

Yeah, Newark always had the vibe of "why isn't this an HBO thing" to me.

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