The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

Black Phone MTC1

Thursday Previews - 16872/181417 245307.62 1426 shows

Friday Previews - 18413/374537 257150.85 2904 shows

 

I believe this will be more frontloaded than  Elvis. I dont know what it did with its early shows. But thursday previews in low 2m+ and OW in high teens is what I am thinking now. Let see see how things go. 

[Alex SciChannel]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-elvis-and-the-black-phone-bow-as-late-june-market-resembles-pre-pandemic-levels/

 

Elvis

OW Range: $31M - $46M 

 

The Black Phone

OW Range: $17M - $22M

 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 26	Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Elvis	Warner Bros.	$38,000,000	$38,000,000	~3,900	NEW
Jurassic World Dominion	Universal Pictures	$31,500,000	$308,700,000	~4,100	-47%
Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount Pictures	$30,000,000	$520,700,000	~4,000	-33%
Lightyear	Disney & Pixar	$23,000,000	$96,100,000	~4,255	-55%
The Black Phone	Universal Pictures	$20,300,000	$20,300,000	~3,100	NEW
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	Disney & Marvel Studios	$2,700,000	$410,300,000	~1,800	-39%
Everything Everywhere All at Once	A24	$700,000	$66,300,000	~500	-26%
The Bad Guys	Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation	$650,000	$95,600,000	~1,000	-36%
The Bob’s Burgers Movie	20th Century Studios (Disney)	$525,000	$31,000,000	~600	-55%
Downton Abbey: A New Era	Focus Features	$425,000	$43,300,000	~600	-49%

Edited June 22, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[ringedmortality]

Only 38 for Elvis?

[Sandro Mazzola]

why are you several million light on Maverick and several million heavy on the dinosaurs @Shawn

 

My top 5 is;

Elvis    35.6m
TG2    35.5m
JWD    21.0m
LY    20.2m
Black Phone    18.1m

[Eric Prime]

17 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Only 38 for Elvis?

That seems like a reasonable number to me

[excel1]

Regardless of how things go, Elvis would be a logical December/January/February rerelease, right ?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

41 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

why are you several million light on Maverick and several million heavy on the dinosaurs @Shawn

 

My top 5 is;

Elvis    35.6m
TG2    35.5m
JWD    21.0m
LY    20.2m
Black Phone    18.1m

 

Worked last week, won't work this week. JWD isn't falling that much. What TGM does at this point I'm not sure, but my number is closer to his than yours. 

[CJohn]

Hopefully Elvis breaks out over 40M OW but personally expecting TG2 to take the top spot with 32-33M and Elvis right behind with 29-31M.

 

Meanwhile The Black Phone should pull similar numbers to Old.

[LegendaryBen]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Black Phone MTC1

Thursday Previews - 16872/181417 245307.62 1426 shows

Friday Previews - 18413/374537 257150.85 2904 shows

 

I believe this will be more frontloaded than  Elvis. I dont know what it did with its early shows. But thursday previews in low 2m+ and OW in high teens is what I am thinking now. Let see see how things go. 

Does it still have a chance at $20m opening?

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Elvis MTC1 Thursday Previews - 23098/217631 364984.92 1516 shows

Elvis MTC1 Friday - 30809/452094 434694.31 3224 shows

 

Elvis previews grew just 3.5K over 24 hours and friday around 6K. Now I am thinking 3 million previews with early shows and OW in 30-33m range. I hope walkups take it higher. 

Its fine. Consider it had TUE shows, THU was deflated.

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2022/06/top-gun-maverick-elvis-the-black-phone-box-office-1235050451/

 

Quote

Distribution sources are saying there’s a chance that Paramount/Skydance’s Top Gun: Maverick could top the box office this weekend in its fifth session with $32 million, a 28% decline week over week.

 

Should Top Gun 2 fly in with $30M+, it will soar above Warner Bros’ $85M Baz Luhrmann-directed Elvis, which is eyeing $20M-plus, and Universal/Blumhouse’s Scott Derrickson-directed R-rated $16M horror film The Black Phone, which is spotting $15M–$20M.

 

Mixed in we’ve got the third weekend of Jurassic World Dominion, which is looking at around $29M, off 51%, and the second weekend of Disney/Pixar’s Lightyear, which is also expected to be down 51% at $25M.

 

 

Elvis, despite having a great world premiere reception out of Cannes with the fest’s longest standing ovation, faces an uphill battle. There is a disconnect between definite interest and total awareness and unaided awareness, I understand for the film. The movie is older skewing and very long at two hours and 39 minutes. Consider the fact that someone who is 50 years old was 5 when Elvis Presley died. Should Elvis open to north of $20M at 3,900 theaters, it would arguably be the biggest opening for an adult demo wide release with that running time during the pandemic (House of Gucci was 2 hours and 38 minutes and debuted to a 3-day of $14.4M). Among non-franchise wide entries aimed at adults, The Lost City, with a $30.4M opening is the best we’ve seen during the pandemic. Do the die-hard Elvis fans come out? The 60+ crowd has hard to come by during the pandemic. You could say they have come out, and they’ve been going to Top Gun 2. Elvis is at 83% certified fresh, higher than Lurhmann’s previous 2013 feature The Great Gatsby (48% Rotten) which debuted to $50M.

 

Some are seeing a $30M opening for Elvis. Even by Tom Hanks opening standards for his non-franchise adult movies, that’s huge, and would rank up there with such starts as Sully ($35M), Saving Private Ryan ($31M) and Catch Me If You Can ($30M) and ahead of the actor’s recent movies, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood ($13.2M) and Captain Phillips ($25.7M).

 

The Black Phone hopes to hook the 17-34 crowd. The pic is 85% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes which is very healthy for a Blumhouse horror movie on the critic aggregator site. Ethan Hawke stars as a masked guy who abducts young children in the basement of his home. That is until he kidnaps the wrong kid who receives clues from the killer’s previous victims on a disconnected phone. The last great Blumhouse opening in recent memory with a R rating, aimed at this teen demo was the pre-pandemic Ma which debuted to $18M May 2019. That was only 56% Rotten. Black Phone‘s screenplay is by Derrickson and C. Robert Cargill (Doctor Strange, Sinister franchise), based on the award-winning short story by Joe Hill from his New York Times  bestseller 20^th Century Ghosts.

 

[Hilpkioy]

That low for Elvis? Seems like a lowball.

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, Eric Presley said:

https://deadline.com/2022/06/top-gun-maverick-elvis-the-black-phone-box-office-1235050451/

 

 

 

Oh sh&t, Deadline agrees with my top 2...my predictions are now toast!  (Unless this is the "broken clock" situation:)...

[Grebacio]

7 minutes ago, Hilpkioy said:

That low for Elvis? Seems like a lowball.

It's Deadline

[ringedmortality]

Deadline has the weekend going like 1. Top Gun 2. Jurassic World 3. Lightyear 4. Elvis 5. The Black Phone

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/21/2022 at 7:01 PM, Menor Reborn said:

Elvis Marcus Theaters:

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thu (T-2)

Showings: 300

Seats Sold: 2583/39428

 

Fri (T-3)

Showings: 637

Seats Sold: 6342/81013

 

Don't have any comps, but Fri being way ahead of Thu is promising. 

Thu (T-1)

Showings: 310 (+10)

Seats Sold: 3329/40436 (+746)

 

Fri (T-2)

Showings: 696 (+59)

Seats Sold: 8485/87931 (+2143)

 

Edit: Put the wrong number in for Thu. 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[ZackM]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	10	15	13	6,298
Seats Added	651	1,487	2,107	1,094,306
Seats Sold	4,623	4,143	4,859	181,069
6/22/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	438	6,336	194,694	1,098,551	17.72%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	8	69	260	505
ATP
$17.22

[Rorschach]

Elvis (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
        5:00 pm: 43/135
        6:05 pm: 40/85
        7:10 pm: 30/85
        8:45 pm: 35/135
        9:50 pm: 0/85
        10:55 pm: 0/85
    Total: 148/610 (24.3% sold)

 

Comps:
Dear Evan Hansen: $3.82 mil
No Time to Die: $6.71 mil
West Side Story: $6.23 mil
Death on the Nile: $7.4 mil
The Lost City: $6.27 mil
Fantastic Beasts 3: $3.39 mil
Top Gun 2: $4.76 mil
Jurassic World Dominion: $3.73 mil
Average: $5.29 mil

 

    Friday:
        9:35 am: 4/141
        11:05 am: 40/135 
        1:20 pm: 4/141
        2:55 pm: 42/135
        5:05 pm: 24/141
        6:45 pm: 72/135
        8:50 pm: 23/141
        10:30 pm: 7/135
    Total: 216/1,104 (19.6% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 364/1,714 (21.2% sold)

 

Comps:
Dear Evan Hansen: $14.39 mil
No Time to Die: $24.45 mil
West Side Story: $12.97 mil
Death on the Nile: $23.07 mil
The Lost City: $26.57 mil
Fantastic Beasts 3: $8.37 mil
Top Gun 2: $11.74 mil
Jurassic World Dominion: $11.59 mil
Average: $16.64 mil

[Ezen Baklattan]

Elvis seems pretty stronger on Friday than Thursday at my theaters precisely. Even my Dolby show on Friday night is starting to fill up well.

 

Right now I feel pretty confident in a #1 Elvis finished followed by Top Gun.

[Rorschach]

The Black Phone (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
        5:00 pm: 12/94
        6:25 pm: 9/67
        7:50 pm: 26/94
        9:15 pm: 9/67
        10:40 pm: 10/94
    Total: 66/416 (15.9% sold)

 

Comps:
Halloween Kills: $1.47 mil
Resident Evil: $2.2 mil
Scream: $1.24 mil
Average: $1.64 mil

 

    Friday:
        11:15 am: 3/94
        12:40 pm: 0/67
        2:05 pm: 2/94
        3:30 pm: 2/67
        4:55 pm: 4/94
        6:20 pm: 2/67
        7:45 pm: 39/94
        9:10 pm: 1/67
        10:35 pm: 14/94
    Total: 67/738 (9.1% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 133/1,154 (11.5% sold)

 

Comps:
Halloween Kills: $4.89 mil
Resident Evil: $6.8 mil
Scream: $4.92 mil
Average: $5.54 mil