NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[Maggie]

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office-nope-1235074926/

[Maggie]

It seems pretty good, right? 50M OW?

[Borobudur]

78% after 500 votes. 

[M37]

Just now, Maggie said:

It seems pretty good, right? 50M OW?

Nah, going to be too frontloaded to get to $50M from there, but a solid mid if not high $40M weekend incoming 

[Lestranger]

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Fingers crossed it hits $50M for the weekend or it'll be available online by the time we foreigners get to watch it.

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

It seems pretty good, right? 50M OW?

Not impossible, but very unlikely. Black Phone did 7.88x its previews, albeit that had some Early Access shows. This has weaker audience reception and Peele's presence probably will help frontload it further. Still, an opening in the 40M range seems locked, which I think is fine.

[WrathOfHan]

Nice. It's the best horror movie that's come out in a while. Some genuinely terrifying stuff in it. WOM should be good-ish.

[JohnnyGossamer]

I liked Nope. Craftsmanship of it especially. Audiences I expect to reject it though. I don't think it has any chance at 50. Will be frontloaded for this kind of movie. Audience reaction at my screening was not favorable unfortunately. Feels like Thor again. Some will love or like many with outright reject it though.

Edited July 22, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[Eric Prime]

RT Audience score is at 78%. Sounds bad, but Candyman has a 72% and earned a B Cinemascore and 2.78x legs. Scream is also only at 81% and got 2.72x legs.

[MrPink]

The WOM I'm seeing doesn't seem that divisive to me. Less passionate feelings for it but I'm not sure it's getting the stronger ones that sunk Us.

 

Personally I was mixed on it but little nuggets are sticking with me that makes me curious to try again.

[baumer]

I have to admit I was not very excited about Nope because the trailer was pretty bland and as I mentioned previously I did not enjoy his last movie that much. But audience reaction so far has been pretty positive and now I think I will end up seeing this on sunday. That's not a bad preview number at all. If it does open to 40 million that should get it to at least 80. Not as massive as his other films of course but still not too shabby considering there was such a bifurcation of opinion for US.

[Lestranger]

US ow did 9.6x previews, Get Out was a slow build so data doesnt apply. Maybe another comp would be Paranormal Activity 2 which did 6.3 million previews and 6.4x for OW, so range would be 61 million if US to 40 for PA2. I am thinking 50 still. 

[Nikostar]

So far the Audience score for this are pretty good. Should hold in the high 70s to low 80s. Also has a 4.0 letter box score. 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Nikostar

[harrisonisdead]

2 minutes ago, Eric the Tethered said:

RT Audience score is at 78%. Sounds bad, but Candyman has a 72% and earned a B Cinemascore and 2.78x legs. Scream is also only at 81% and got 2.72x legs.

At around the same point, Us had a 69%, 3.5/5 average, though that was before RT introduced verified audience scores. Still, audience reception does seem generally more positive.

 

[p a p i]

Daddy Peele 

[titanic2187]

Plot twist movies generally attract legs, see gone girl, parasite, KO. I am not sure if nope is one of the film belong to this category, but the divisiveness of wom means the hold similar to Us is more likely than to GO.

 

Should be in the range of 45m. We need 2.5x legs to have another 100m hit. Summer midweek should give it a boost, if not this is FB3 all over again.

[filmlover]

Should be about $45-50M for the weekend, with a $68M budget this is locked to go down as yet another win for the Peele/Universal relationship.

[baumer]

Well whatever this film ends up grossing Its certainly going to be more than what I said it would. I thought Us was divisive enough that this wouldn't gross more than about 60 million in total. I was obviously way off. I eat crow once again.

[Krissykins]

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

I have to admit I was not very excited about Nope because the trailer was pretty bland and as I mentioned previously I did not enjoy his last movie that much. But audience reaction so far has been pretty positive and now I think I will end up seeing this on sunday. That's not a bad preview number at all. If it does open to 40 million that should get it to at least 80. Not as massive as his other films of course but still not too shabby considering there was such a bifurcation of opinion for US.

It’s not having only a 2x multiplier with summer weekdays and no competition.  Us had a 2.46x and opened much higher. Nope will going comfortably over $100m, probably $120m+.
 

I think it’ll get to $50m. Candyman had an 11.57x preview to OW, so I don’t think A 7.8x is unreachable.  

Edited July 22, 2022 by Krissykins