The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ryan Reynolds]

26 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Any ideas?

Beverly Hills Cop 4

[Cap]

22 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

My sweet, sweet prince. It's going to make Marvel vs DC vs Star Wars look like Bob Ross had a disagreement with Mr. Rogers. 

 

 It will be good for site traffic. Make sure to run a sale. 💀

[SnokesLegs]

45 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Any ideas?

Sony re-re-releasing Morbius.

[Chrysaor]

3 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

Imagine Taylor's face on the gif.

[vafrow]

On 9/28/2023 at 5:49 PM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-15 (early evening pull)

 

Total sales:  17,228

New Sales: 94

Growth from yesterday 0.5%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5736 across 119 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  96

Total Seats Available for Sale: 25,293

Percentage of seats sold: 68.1%

Tickets per showtime: 179.4

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Growth seems to be coming back to the levels before the announcement of the international release. 

 

Just thinking about one of my posts a few weeks ago where I was saying that Swift should be marketing towards the NFL crowd for this. She then started dating an NFL player.

 

With this tremendous power, I'm wondering what I should say about which demographic she should target next. Maybe box office nerds?

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-14 (late evening pull)

 

Total sales:  17,775

New Sales: 549

Growth from yesterday 3.2%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5330 across 115 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  100

Total Seats Available for Sale: 26,490

Percentage of seats sold: 67.1%

Tickets per showtime: 177.8

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Growth figures are wonky, as another location added back matinee showtimes, making up 406 of the 549 "new" sales, even though they're restored sales from prior to the nuke.

 

A second case makes me think they'll be adding back the matinees in full soon. It seems odd that they'd not just let one reopen for a few days, but start adding others.

 

Removing the restored sales, growth is pretty solid, showing a rise from the usual. We might have passed the bottom of the curve.

Edited September 30, 2023 by vafrow

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, Eric the Creator said:

Adam Aron recently followed Beyonce on Twitter. Just leaving that here 🌚

Avoiding getting too analytical here considering this is pure speculation, but Beyonce’s Renaissance Tour cleared $295M in sales for the US leg. The Eras Tour is projected to finish in the ballpark of $600M. Sooooooo one could realistically say a Beyonce movie would do half, something something $85-120M OW

Edited September 30, 2023 by Relevation

[Cmasterclay]

I don't buy what EC is saying as usual, but if he is right, I think Red One makes the most sense. Always weird that was never on the schedule for holiday season.

[XXR vs XXR]

19 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Sooooooo one could realistically say a Beyonce movie would do half, something something $85-120M OW

 

Unless there's some kind of drastic change coming, TET is "only" gonna do $115-135M. I think Beyonce would maybe do $50-60M.

[filmlover]

I was about to say maybe Netflix would commit to a pretty sizeable theater push for Maestro, which is getting a similar rollout as Knives Out (theaters on Thanksgiving weekend, streaming just in time for Christmas), but that's expecting too much from the streamer that hates movie theaters the most.

[jeffthehat]

49 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

Unless there's some kind of drastic change coming, TET is "only" gonna do $115-135M. I think Beyonce would maybe do $50-60M.

You sure? $50m+ Fri for TET still looks likely to me.  I think it’s like 45% sold out on ~24k shows now. Could be missing something.

Edited September 30, 2023 by jeffthehat

[Relevation]

42 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

Unless there's some kind of drastic change coming, TET is "only" gonna do $115-135M. I think Beyonce would maybe do $50-60M.

Comps even with their precipitous decline over the last weeks have still held north of $40M and it’s bound to finally get some new sales traction at some point, be it from Taylor finally promoting it or the more casual Taylor fans waiting to buy tickets due to the inherent risks of the no refund policy. I think at least something like $40M FRI to $160M OW is still far more likely than not to be exceeded at the present moment with the data we have.

[HummingLemon496]

11 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Comps even with their precipitous decline over the last weeks have still held north of $40M and it’s bound to finally get some new sales traction at some point, be it from Taylor finally promoting it or the more casual Taylor fans waiting to buy tickets due to the inherent risks of the no refund policy. I think at least something like $40M FRI to $160M OW is still far more likely than not to be exceeded at the present moment with the data we have.

$300m isn't happening isn't it?

 

[keysersoze123]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-14) - 526293/792282 11126641.77 4744 shows

Saturday - 446127/1603283 9641582.03 9366 shows

Sunday - 297631/1567293 6514492.59 9095 shows

 

Overall sales are at crazy level but pace has to pick up. Let us see how things go starting next week. I am not sure if Swift will hit talk shows but even a social media driven marketing could be strong. 

[keysersoze123]

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1

Previews - 14129/288664 271395.71 1739 shows

Friday - 9212/410306 178244.50 2447 shows

 

It has slowed down after a good OD. I am sure Marty would hit talk shows and is capable of marketing it himself even if SAG strike is not resolved by release as its most likely. It just sells as another Leo/Marty joint anyway. Plus the critical acclaim is a huge factor. 

[WorkingonaName]

3 hours ago, datpepper said:

Beyonce was reportedly shopping around her visual album right as the Taylor Swift news got out. Just sayin', who knows...

Inshallah 

[vale9001]

Hasn't late november early december movies like Wish, Napoleon and Hunger games?

 

All of these seems to me good material, i wouldn't say a Beyoncé concert would change the general income that much. If Swift concert at the end of the party It's in doubt to finish at the 80-100M range a Beyoncé concert would make around 30M maybe. A very good result even for this concert but nothing to "save" the month.

Edited September 30, 2023 by vale9001

[BadOlCatSylvester]

4 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I don't buy what EC is saying as usual, but if he is right, I think Red One makes the most sense. Always weird that was never on the schedule for holiday season.

I doubt it, especially after Black Adam underperformed last year. That'll likely remain a Prime original. I'm thinking it is indeed a Beyonce concert movie like a few here are implying. I'm expecting them to be dominant this decade as a whole.

[Porthos]

On 9/29/2023 at 12:42 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	150	11493	19642	8149	41.49%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	232
Total Seats Sold Today	111

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	53.37		628	15268		0/298	21158/36426	41.92%		28183	28.91%		26.69m	38.70m
MoM	79.82		182	10209		0/351	32227/42436	24.06%		21117	38.59%		28.74m	41.67m
Thor 4	128.25		150	6354		0/228	25246/31600	20.11%		16962	48.04%		37.19m	53.93m
BP2	119.31		126	6830		2/294	30194/37024	18.45%		16800	48.51%		33.41m	48.44m
AM3	176.50		153	4617		0/238	28177/32794	14.08%		10475	77.79%		30.89m	44.79m
GOTG3	229.74		69	3547		0/203	25548/29095	12.19%		10750	75.80%		40.21m	58.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-15 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	207.72		111	3923		0/280	30855/34778	11.28%		11757	69.31%
JWD	336.04		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	74.31%
Ava 2	302.37		89	2695		0/142	18643/21338	12.63%		8986	90.69%
AtSV	430.71		71	1892		0/123	18027/19919	9.50%		9744	83.63%
Barbie	449.48		160	1813		0/96	10799/12612	14.38%		12077	67.48%
Oppy	751.75		67	1084		0/53	7164/8248	13.14%		4621	176.35%
Barben	281.29		227	2897		0/149	17963/20860	13.89%		16698	48.80%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2324/6150  [37.79% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	150	11457	19642	8185	41.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	51.87		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		28183	29.04%		25.94m	37.61m
MoM	78.71		190	10399		0/351	32037/42436	24.51%		21117	38.76%		28.34m	41.09m
Thor 4	124.98		195	6549		0/228	25051/31600	20.72%		16962	48.25%		36.24m	52.55m
BP2	115.93		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	48.72%		32.46m	47.07m
AM3	171.70		150	4767		0/238	28027/32794	14.54%		10475	78.14%		30.05m	43.57m
GOTG3	227.74		47	3594		0/203	25501/29095	12.35%		10750	76.14%		39.85m	57.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-14 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	200.27		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	69.62%
JWD	315.41		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	74.64%
Ava 2	292.43		104	2799		0/142	18539/21338	13.12%		8986	91.09%
AtSV	412.13		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		9744	84.00%
Barbie	411.51		176	1989		1/97	10623/12612	15.77%		12077	67.77%
Oppy	723.06		48	1132		0/55	7524/8656	13.08%		4621	177.13%
Barben	262.26		224	3121		1/152	18147/21268	14.67%		16698	49.02%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2335/6150  [37.97% sold]

[vale9001]

Beyoncè actually was rumoured to try to sell a "visual movie" about her last album. If it's really about her I hope it's a concert cause if it's something like that and not a concert I think the appeal on GP would be really low. A concert can have an appeal for everyone, something visual with music from just a very specific album is something very very hardcore fans oriented, 

Edited September 30, 2023 by vale9001

[vafrow]

On 9/28/2023 at 6:13 PM, vafrow said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon, T-21, Thues previews, southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 386

New sales: 71

Growth since T-23: 23%

Theatre Count: 43

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per showtime:  5.84

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Good solid growth. Still heavily concentrated in those high profile theatres, but the ratio is coming down.

 

Killers of the Flower Moon, T-20, Thues previews, southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 446

New sales: 60

Growth since yesterday: 16%

Theatre Count: 43

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per showtime:  6.75

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Staying nice and steady. No comps yet. By around T-14, some will appear, but, nothing that great.