The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cmasterclay]

Shocking that people in this thread that have spent the last year calling me negative on everything are suddenly acting mega disappointed Dune is about to hit 75m-80m. That's an amazing number. Who in the world could have expected those kind of numbers for a Dune movie? It's a miracle these movies both made as much as they did - turned one of the dorkiest, whitest hard sci fi franchises into legit hits. I'm still stunned all these years later it even got greenlit. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

Am I delusional for envisioning it can still hit 100M OW? Like when would we know it's off the table?

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Am I delusional for envisioning it can still hit 100M OW? Like when would we know it's off the table?

If yesterday wasn't an anomaly I can see it hit 100 on high end. lets see how it ends the presales.

Edited February 27 by charlie Jatinder

[ChipDerby]

My personal over/under has always been right around $80 mil OW. Glad to see it's tracking right about there.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/26/2024 at 11:24 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	T-3	Jax	6	65	851*	851	10,737	7.93%
		Phx	6	55	637*	637	10,149	6.28%
		Ral	8	59	786*	786	8,358	9.40%
	T-3		20	179	2,274*	2,274	29,244	7.78%

*New... first time tracking in five months...

 

T-3 comps

 - Dune - 1.93x (9.84m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .574x (8.43m)

 - Batman - .427x (7.51m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .536x (9.49m)

 - Eternals - .856x (8.13m)

 - Black Widow - .635x (8.38m)

 - Flash - 1.13x (10.98m)

 

All comps excluding EA (where applicable).  Sounds like EA did very well.  Forecast is at 9.3m for previews before adding EA. 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	T-2	Jax	6	86	146	997	13,012	7.66%
		Phx	6	64	154	791	10,838	7.30%
		Ral	8	68	134	920	8,842	10.40%
	Total		20	218	434	2,708	32,692	8.28%

 

T-2 comps

 - Dune - 1.8x (9.16m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .579x (8.51m)

 - Batman - .432x (7.6m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .535x (9.47m)

 - Eternals - .898x (8.53m)

 - Black Widow - .663x (8.75m)

 - Flash - 1.18x (11.43m)

 - Avatar 2 - .507x (8.63m)

 - Oppenheimer - .915x (9.42m)

 

Forecast is at 9.36m for previews.  Lots of shows added today

 

*Added Oppenheimer which increased forecast slightly

Edited February 27 by katnisscinnaplex
Added Oppenheimer

[VanillaSkies]

3 hours ago, dallas said:

But... it is a blockbuster. 

To be technical, nothing is a Blockbuster anymore. The term was created when theatres didn’t have reserved seating and mega theatres didn’t really exist. 
 

So people literally had to line up outside the theatre around the block, or even multiple blocks to hope to get a ticket. Hence the term Blockbuster. 
 

from Guinness World Records;

 

”Steven Spielberg's (USA) Jaws (USA, 1975) is considered the first summer blockbuster. Not only did people queue up around the block to see the movie, it became the first film to earn $100 million at the box office.”

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-10	Jax	5	39	63*	63	4,580	1.38%
		Phx	6	28	89*	89	4,540	1.96%
		Ral	8	44	117*	117	5,047	2.32%
	T-10		19	111	269*	269	14,167	1.90%

 

T-10 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .805x (2.5m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .48x (3m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .45x (2.52m)

 

Forecast model is sitting at 2.45m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-9	Jax	5	39	0	63	4,580	1.38%
		Phx	6	29	4	93	4,685	1.99%
		Ral	8	44	0	117	5,047	2.32%
	T-9 Total		19	112	4	273	14,312	1.91%

 

T-9 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .728x (2.26m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .435x (2.72m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .426x (2.39m)

 

Hardly any new sales but not too surprising this far out.  Forecast is at 2.11m

[el sid]

Dune: Part Two, counted yesterday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 273 (5 showtimes; Dune had back then on the same day 143 sold tickets)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 414 (12 showtimes; Dune: 297 sold tickets)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 63 (9 showtimes; Dune had no showtimes yet)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 50 (2 showtimes; also no showtimes yet)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 136 (7 showtimes; Dune: 63 sold tickets)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 693 (5 showtimes; Dune: 636 sold tickets)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.300 (11 showtimes; Dune: 719 sold tickets)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.929.

Comps (all movies counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday: Dune (5.1M) had 1.038 sold tickets = 8.05M true Thursday for Dune 2.
The Creator (1.6M) had 327 = 5.8M.

G: A (4.5M) had 936 = 14.1M.
Wakanda Forever (28M) had 6.765 = 12.2M.
And SC (8.8M) had 2.561 = 10.1M.

Average: 10.05M Thursday (without EA).
So pretty much in line with other reports and I did not look at them first .

[charlie Jatinder]

.

Edited February 27 by charlie Jatinder

[dallas]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Do you consider Wonka or Venom 2 to be blockbusters? 

Yes. Anything that makes over $200M is a blockbuster in my eyes. 

[dallas]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Yeah but nowhere near Avatar, TGM or Barbenheimer level

I never said it was because those films are on an entirely different level. 

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Yeah but nowhere near Avatar, TGM or Barbenheimer level

Who was expecting Dune to make $700m DOM?

[ViewerAnon]

1 hour ago, dallas said:

Yes. Anything that makes over $200M is a blockbuster in my eyes. 

 

Quantumania out here like

 

[jeffthehat]

19 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-3	1439	11158	62	+18.2%
Fri	T-4	2050	22550	132	+18.1%

Thursday Comps

1.94x The Marvels T-3 = $12.8m

2.05x HG BoSS T-3 = $11.8m

Friday Comps

2.51x The Marvels T-4 = $37.6m

2.62x HG BoSS T-4 = $34.7m

---

Had errands this morning so pulled about 5 hours later than yesterday (10 am vs. 3pm). Huge jump in sales but can't tell how much of that was from this afternoon. 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-2	1608	11158	62	+11.7%
Fri	T-3	2298	22550	132	+12.1%

Thursday Comps

1.88x The Marvels T-2= $12.4m

1.92x HG BoSS T-2 = $11.1m

Friday Comps

2.46x The Marvels T-3 = $36.8m

2.37x HG BoSS T-3 = $31.5m

 

Avg Thu = $11.8m

Avg Fri = $34.2m

--

Pulled at the usual time today. Growing better than I expected in the home stretch. We'll see if it continues. 

Edited February 27 by jeffthehat

[Spidey Freak]

3 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Shocking that people in this thread that have spent the last year calling me negative on everything are suddenly acting mega disappointed Dune is about to hit 75m-80m. That's an amazing number. Who in the world could have expected those kind of numbers for a Dune movie? It's a miracle these movies both made as much as they did - turned one of the dorkiest, whitest hard sci fi franchises into legit hits. I'm still stunned all these years later it even got greenlit. 

 

Man straight up said cultural appropriation is the whitest thing imaginable 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Shocking that people in this thread that have spent the last year calling me negative on everything are suddenly acting mega disappointed Dune is about to hit 75m-80m. That's an amazing number. Who in the world could have expected those kind of numbers for a Dune movie? It's a miracle these movies both made as much as they did - turned one of the dorkiest, whitest hard sci fi franchises into legit hits. I'm still stunned all these years later it even got greenlit. 

I'm not shocked. I've been trying to tell folks to stay grounded, and there's been nothing but pushback for saying this film will only be John Wick 4 successful (domestically). Which is still really successful.

 

EDIT: Once again, I went to see how many tickets for the very first showing of the movie on preview night sold. Nine tickets, assuming none of the blocked out seats are "broken" seats which never have availability. This is going to overperform in urban areas and underperform in towns like mine.

Edited February 27 by MysteryMovieMogul
Stats from local theater

[Shawn Robbins]

On 2/23/2024 at 11:16 AM, ChiefBrody said:

But you really think GxK will only do $35-$40 million on a major holiday weekend and with zero competition for awhile after it’s release?

See my previous reply in the other thread about that range not having been revised in awhile and was not supposed to have been included yet (accidental copy/paste on my part)... but in general, yes I don't see much over $40-45m currently. It isn't tracking much differently than GvK and I think there's a strong argument that it has less novelty this time around for non-monster movie fans that offsets the streaming/pandemic factor.

 

That said, let's see how things go. Maybe it can improve a little.

[Issac Newton]

Dune: Part Two has collected $18M in advance ticket sales ($11.5M of that from the top three circuits). Fandango counts around 200K which is just under where Jurassic World: Dominion ($145M opening) and ahead of Oppenheimer ($82.4M). Dune: Part Two‘s advance sales are also in line with Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3.

[Issac Newton]

Last Sunday yielded $2M from an Imax Fans First Event which will be rolled up into Thursday’s number. 

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Dune: Part Two has collected $18M in advance ticket sales ($11.5M of that from the top three circuits). Fandango counts around 200K which is just under where Jurassic World: Dominion ($145M opening) and ahead of Oppenheimer ($82.4M). Dune: Part Two‘s advance sales are also in line with Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3.

That's cool and all but it only sold 9 tickets in Mogul's theater's preview show though.