The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

The casuals aren't going to show up are they.

 

While acknowledging the Day & Date effect, the older & whiter demo skew on the first Dune was always a red flag for that possibility

[Minnale101]

Timothee and zendaya are such big stars for casuals, I think they will attract some of younger people who wouldn’t normally watch movies like this

[misterpepp]

Fall Guy tix on sale March 12

[Cmasterclay]

When/if Dune 2 doesn't hit 200 we aren't getting a 200m domestic grosser until Inside Out 2....that is woof. I had fun being optimistic for a few weeks and making some nice posts about all the breakout little hits but I feel the old Clay coming back!!

 

(Edit: to be clear this is still much higher than I predicted for Dune 2, it's the state of the year that I'm cynical about)

Edited February 29 by Cmasterclay

[filmlover]

Been thinking this whole time that anything over $150M total would be a win for Dune 2 given Part 1 did pretty well despite day-and-date and during the time when COVID was still going especially strong. Some of the absurdly high predictions that went around always came across as wishful predicting to me.

[HummingLemon496]

19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

When/if Dune 2 doesn't hit 200 we aren't getting a 200m domestic grosser until Inside Out 2....that is woof. I had fun being optimistic for a few weeks and making some nice posts about all the breakout little hits but I feel the old Clay coming back!!

This is made me realize. . .

 

Inside Out 2 will be the first film since Barbie to have a bigger OW than Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania 🤣

 

And if Inside Out 2 misses 106M, then it's gonna take around ~15 months since Barbie to get a non-Marvel film that opened higher than Quantumania

Edited February 29 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

When/if Dune 2 doesn't hit 200 we aren't getting a 200m domestic grosser until Inside Out 2....that is woof. I had fun being optimistic for a few weeks and making some nice posts about all the breakout little hits but I feel the old Clay coming back!!

See the post above yours. Universal is massively confident in the Fall Guy. World premiere on March 12 at South By Southwest and tickets go on sale the same day,  Will see if that is confidence is validated. If it is then it has a strong chance to do it. It seems designed to play to the casuals in a way that  something like Dune is not. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Well, it's good to know we are getting Dead Reckoning Part 2 this year after all.

[TheFlatLannister]

52 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

A NEW GO WITH UPDATED ATPs:

 

I decided to build some estimates based on Charlie's MTC comps with Dune 1. We'll know much more later today when we get the T-1 MTC numbers but based on the above I created the tables below. THU Dune 2/Dune 1 ratio seems to be heading down again after Monday's EA bump. The first table estimates the THU previews (excl. EA) from the worst case of finishing 182% compared to Dune 1 and the best case holding at 187% at the latest by beating the poor walkups of Dune 1 on T-0. That should be a reasonable range with current data. ATP ratio with Dune 2 was 5.26% higher than Dune 1 yesterday and 5.33% higher the day before. This downward trajectory might be because the sales outside PLF screens are picking up and probably continue downward.

 

Estimating the downward trajectory of Dune 1 Thu previews MTC comp of 184-185% and using ATP increase of 5.2% we would get $9.87-9.93M previews averaging ~$9.9M. I'd say that with current MTC and ATP comp data, it's around 80-90% probability that Thu previews hit between $9.76M and 10.04M (subject to change after today's MTC data).

 

 

Then we come to the OW (incl. EA) estimates and I got the above. Weekend MTC numbers look good for IM but let's assume that it'll be just 7.5 and Thu previews of $9.76M and we'll get $75.2M OW at the lower end. If we assume the $10.04m higher-end Thu previews and excellent WOM to drive the IM past Dune 1's 8.05 to even 8.2 we would get the $84.3M as the higher-end OW which could be said "the best case" but is that 5% or 10% chance, who knows.

 

All-in-all, I'd say that with around 80% confidence level with current datapoints from MTC and ATP Dune 1 comps and early signs from today, the floor is $75M and the ceiling $84M for Dune Part 2 OW. I.e. 20% chance it's outside that range.

 

The mid-point with 7.8-7.9 IM and $9.9M Thu previews would be ~$80M ($79.7M) OW (incl. EA*).

 

*assuming $2M EA

 

PS. Just for Leoh's sake, if it has Dune 1's IM all these previews take it over $80M

Very good stuff. $75M-$84M does seem like a more reasonable range than $76M-$88M

[ViewerAnon]

I don't think streaming day-and-date affected DUNE as much as some believe, at least not in the U.S. - there was still a huge push to see it on the biggest, best screen possible.

[ViewerAnon]

7 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Well, it's good to know we are getting Dead Reckoning Part 2 this year after all.

 

That doesn't seem fair. DEAD RECKONING opened 11% lower than its predecessor and had the lowest 3-day M:I opening in 17 years. Even if DUNE: PART TWO undershoots all projections here, the worst it could possible do is what, $60M? The odds of that are incredibly low and it would still be a 50% increase.

[charlie Jatinder]

Two graphs.

One is absolute daily change of Dune 2, Avatar 2 and Oppy in MTC 1 and another is % of daily pace of Dune 2 against Avatar 2 & Oppy.

[charlie Jatinder]

Think DPvW is next 100M opener, that will be longest gap between two 100M opener since first Spiderman and Matrix in 2003.

 

For the sake of this I am considering those mid-week opener which would have opened to 100M if they were 3 day weekend as 100M opener. Like say Spiderman 2 or some Transformers films.

Edited February 29 by charlie Jatinder

[dallas]

Dune: Part Two

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-1

Tickets Sold: 377 (+57)

Growth: 18%

% PLF: 34%

5 theaters/43 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.401x) of Aquaman 2 - $6.30 Million

(1.304x) of Madame Web - $7.89 Million

(0.807x) of Bob Marley - $11.30 Million

(5.164x) of Argylle - $8.78 Million

COMPS AVG - $8.57 Million

 

Oof. Just really meh growth all around. What went from a guaranteed $10M in my mind is now a $9.5M. The good news is that presales throughout the entire weekend are strong enough that $80M remains a possibility. 

[filmlover]

Kind of wild how March has four big sequels attached to notable IPs and almost none of them feel like true blockbusters in waiting. Dune 2 is the only one that has an actual hook to it beyond "we made yet another one of these" and even it probably has a ceiling as to how high it can go due to genre appeal limitations.

[HummingLemon496]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Think DPvW is next 100M opener, that will be longest gap between two 100M opener since first Spiderman and Matrix in 2003.

 

For the sake of this I am considering those mid-week opener which would have opened to 100M if they were 3 day weekend as 100M opener. Like say Spiderman 2 or some Transformers films.

Insane how six MCU movies in a row managed to open to $100M+ from No Way Home through GOTG 3. Crazy impressive streak we're definitely not seeing this any time soon

 

Something would have to go wrong for IO2 to not do it though

Edited February 29 by HummingLemon496

[dallas]

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-8

Tickets Sold: 38 (+17)

Growth: 81%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(2.714x) of Migration - $4.07 Million

 

Decent growth. Finally beginning to show a solid base. Should do ~$40M in its opening weekend if this pace continues. 

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Dune Part II:

 

NJ-Based Thursday Predictions:

 

Theater 1: 46 Tickets
Theater 2: 50 Tickets

 

HG:BoSaS: $6.99M
KotFM: $5.67M
Oppenheimer: $2.98M
JW4: $6.62M
A:TWoW: $7.49M

 

Good news. Comps are going up. Right now looking between $6.5M-$7.5M

 

NJ-Based Friday Predictions:

 

Theater 1: 62 Tickets

Theater 2: 110 Tickets

 

HG:BoSaS: $14.95M

KotFM: $18.28M

Oppenheimer: $7.41M

JW4: $22.49M

A:TWoW: $19.33M

 

Pretty good start. Definitely less of a defined range. I'll say $17M-$19M right now

Dune Part II:

NJ-Based Thursday Predictions:

 

Theater 1: 56 Tickets

Theater 2: 57 Tickets

 

HG:BoSaS: $6.19M

KotFM: $5.25M

Oppenheimer: $2.66M

JW4: $5.85M

A:TWoW: $8.38M

 

Not a great day for sales. All trickled down to $5.5M-$6.5M unless it plays like fellow long PLF title Avatar 2 to $8M+

 

NJ-Based Friday Predictions:

 

Theater 1: 91 Tickets

Theater 2: 146 Tickets

 

HG:BoSaS: $15.53M

KotFM: $19.90M

Oppenheimer: $7.50M

JW4: $22.84M

A:TWoW: $23.40M

 

Comps are going up for Friday. In the range of $18M-$23M now

[TheFlatLannister]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Think DPvW is next 100M opener, that will be longest gap between two 100M opener since first Spiderman and Matrix in 2003.

 

For the sake of this I am considering those mid-week opener which would have opened to 100M if they were 3 day weekend as 100M opener. Like say Spiderman 2 or some Transformers films.

I'm very bullish on Inside out 2 and think there's going to be a lot of pent of hype for a strong Disney animated IP. Would not be shocked with something like $120M+ 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/27/2024 at 8:53 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	172	499	4062	26909	15.1

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3401	368	83.73
MTC1:		1854	120	45.64
Marcus:		473	95	11.64
Alamo:		431	22	10.61
Other chains:		1304	262	32.1

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.05x Oppy: $11.05 Million

2.25x The Marvels: $14.87 Million

1.6x MI7 (w/ EA): $14.38 Million

0.66x Barbie (THU): $14 Million

 

Average: $13.58 Million

 

Dropped against all comps, but honestly the numbers in non-MTC1 chains were not bad, the MTC1 update was just terrible. A shit ton of new showings so I am interested to see tomorrow if these non-PLF screening numbers finally start rising

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	183	586	4648	28129	16.52

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3802	401	81.8
MTC1:		2048	194	44.06
Marcus:		553	80	11.9
Alamo:		457	26	9.83
Other chains:		1590	286	34.21

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	14.43
3-Day:	47.88

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.96x Oppy: $10.06 Million (25%, 80%)

2.14x The Marvels: $14.14 Million (20%, 56%)

1.44x MI7 (w/ EA): $12.97 Million (28%, 69%)

0.6x Barbie (THU): $12.79 Million (25%, 94%)

 

Average: $12.49 Million

 

Won't add to the echo chamber by talking much about its bad final day/week, the growth rate comparisons speak for themselves. PLF percentage over 80% is still insanely high, so ATP will help it, but will it be enough to cross 10? More experienced trackers tomorrow might be able to answer that, but this is my last update, so I'll chicken out a lil bit:  9.7 Million, +/- 0.4 is my final prediction. Basing it mostly on Oppy comp, growth rates, but really high ATP to somewhat make up for it. In short, won't be surprised if it crosses 10, but won't be surprised if it's closer to 9 than 10 either.

 

Farewell Dune Part 2, it was fun to return to high pre-sales for a bit :,(

Edited February 29 by abracadabra1998