The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/3/2024 at 11:33 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-4	Jax	5	39	10	95	4,580	2.07%
		Phx	6	32	22	155	5,003	3.10%
		Ral	8	44	16	156	5,047	3.09%
	Total		19	115	48	406	14,630	2.78%

 

T-4 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .627x (1.94m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .4x (2.49m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .332x (1.86m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - missed

 - Elemental - 1.58x (3.79m)

 - Super Pets - 3.08x (6.77m)

 

Growth model forecast - 3.27m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	T-3	Jax	4	9	102	102	866	11.78%
		Phx	6	11	54	54	1,025	5.27%
		Ral	7	12	48	48	1,340	3.58%
	Total		17	32	204	204	3,231	6.31%
Imaginary	T-3	Jax	5	12	28	28	1,197	2.34%
		Phx	5	9	27	27	978	2.76%
		Ral	7	13	22	22	1,109	1.98%
	Total		17	34	77	77	3,284	2.34%
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-3	Jax	5	39	31	126	4,580	2.75%
		Phx	6	32	25	180	5,003	3.60%
		Ral	8	44	29	185	5,047	3.67%
	Total		19	115	85	491	14,630	3.36%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-3 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .646x (2m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .413x (2.58m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .328x (1.84m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .592x (3.26m)

 - Elemental - 1.69x (4.05m)

 - Super Pets - 2.82x (6.21m)

 - Minions 2 - .603x (6.48m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 4.91x (6.43m)

 

Growth model forecast - 3.72m

 

Imaginary T-3 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .238x (1.19m)

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.04x (1.25m)

 - Invitation - 1.88x (1.46m)

 - Old - .77x (1.16m)

 

Growth model forecast - 1.28m

 

Cabrini T-3 comps

 - Sound of Freedom - .097x (504k)

 - Left Behind - .779x (475k)

 - I Heard the Bells - .492x (380k)

 - Jesus Revolution - .137x (452k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/3/2024 at 11:35 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-18	Jax	5	56	8	76	8,681	0.88%
		Phx	6	50	13	86	8,790	0.98%
		Ral	8	36	3	92	5,244	1.75%
	Total		19	142	24	254	22,715	1.12%

 

T-18 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.215x (3.77m)

 - Shazam 2 - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.227x (5.03m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-17	Jax	5	56	4	80	8,681	0.92%
		Phx	6	50	7	93	8,790	1.06%
		Ral	8	36	7	99	5,244	1.89%
	Total		19	142	18	272	22,715	1.20%

 

T-17 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.236x (3.83m)

 - Shazam 2 - .786x (2.67m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.253x (5.14m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .784x (4.94m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .739x (4.14m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .435x (3.82m)

 

Forecast - 4.13m

[Minnale101]

6 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	T-3	Jax	4	9	102	102	866	11.78%
		Phx	6	11	54	54	1,025	5.27%
		Ral	7	12	48	48	1,340	3.58%
	Total		17	32	204	204	3,231	6.31%
Imaginary	T-3	Jax	5	12	28	28	1,197	2.34%
		Phx	5	9	27	27	978	2.76%
		Ral	7	13	22	22	1,109	1.98%
	Total		17	34	77	77	3,284	2.34%
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-3	Jax	5	39	31	126	4,580	2.75%
		Phx	6	32	25	180	5,003	3.60%
		Ral	8	44	29	185	5,047	3.67%
	Total		19	115	85	491	14,630	3.36%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-3 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .646x (2m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .413x (2.58m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .328x (1.84m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .592x (3.26m)

 - Elemental - 1.69x (4.05m)

 - Super Pets - 2.82x (6.21m)

 - Minions 2 - .603x (6.48m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 4.91x (6.43m)

 

Growth model forecast - 3.72m

 

Imaginary T-3 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .238x (1.19m)

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.04x (1.25m)

 - Invitation - 1.88x (1.46m)

 - Old - .77x (1.16m)

 

Growth model forecast - 1.28m

 

Cabrini T-3 comps

 - Sound of Freedom - .097x (504k)

 - Left Behind - .779x (475k)

 - I Heard the Bells - .492x (380k)

 - Jesus Revolution - .137x (452k)

500k increase in a day for forecast is soild, I would be happy with 4 million premiers and 10x range at 40 million ow especially with spring break next week 

[Bob Train]

Imaginary should be good for 10x IM because previews are starting at 6PM like Thanksgiving.

[cooldude97]

Interested in the PLF/IMAX and regular screens split for GxK as all the new advertisements end with "filmed for IMAX"

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

500k increase in a day for forecast is soild, I would be happy with 4 million premiers and 10x range at 40 million ow especially with spring break next week 

Well, that's partially due to the newly added comps, which are both on the higher end.  I do think those will be relevant, but if I had included them previously the forecast would have been almost identical on T-4. 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Love Lies Bleeding T-11: 18.43%

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-18: 58.44%

I Saw the TV Glow T-60: 10.77%

The Watchers T-102: 25.12%

Flint Strong T-158: 10.94%

 

Cabrini T-4: 20.71% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Imaginary T-4: 41.14% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 49% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-4: 68.25% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 76% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 52% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 70M, 50% chance of 100M

 

Arthur the King T-11: 37.03% Awareness

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

 

The First Omen T-32: 31.66% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

[Cmasterclay]

Ska-doosh.

[Boxofficerules]

Still no full trailer for The First Omen.

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

3/8 openers T-3

Movie	Sales	Seats	Shows
Kung Fu Panda 4	473	19257	128
Cabrini	221	3093	30
Imaginary	123	3385	37

Kung Fu Panda 4 Comps

0.22x One Love Wed T-3 = $3.0m

0.44x Madame Web Wed T-3 = $2.7m

4.73x Lisa Frankenstein T-3 = $2.8m 

[rehpyc]

Will try to add updates, but so far for KFP4 T-5 to T-4:

 

Elemental: 4,40M, 4.64M

Trolls: 3.27M, 3.43M

Migration: 3.63M, 3.77M

Minions: 5.02M, 4.92M

Shazam 2: 2.15M, 2.47M

 

Minions has been relatively flat for several days around that 5M mark, with KFP4 maintaining about half its daily add. The other comps have been trending up with a trajectory of that ~4.5M range. Let's see how the next day or two go.

[Poseidon]

One thing to keep in mind for the panda is the fact, that it had a hard time being trailered in theaters for at least a month now with only Wonka and Migration keeping the family movie on life support. That's for sure something unusual. So maybe that lack of awareness will be made up by better legs, especially due to the fact, that the Panda is the only life support until Garfield opens in more than 2 months. 

[leoh]

Dune 2 actuals finally reported:

Warner Bros this Morning estimate were 1 million above the actual BO.

 

TOTAL actual opening weekend:

81,505,391

 

FRIDAY: 32,211,366

SATURDAY: 27,718,894

SUNDAY: 21,575,131

 

 

@M37 2.7x seems to be ok because Dune 2 made 27.7 million Saturday against a 10M on Thursday reported by WB.

@Shawn Robbins once again did a great job, projecting 80.9M for Dune opening weekend, only 600k away from the actuals. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 5 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

Just wanted to see how Dune is looking for 2nd weekend
Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 33702/504655 686411.52 2440 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 50182/539227 945246.98 2636 shows

 

Its way ahead of Panda for the days and of course ATP for Dune 2 is way higher as well.

[Minnale101]

I mean yeah people are buying imax and plf tickets well before hand for weekend with great wom dune 2 has 

 

if KFP4 does decent it’s because of walk in audience of families since its got no plf

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/3/2024 at 3:33 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	106	342	10450	3.27

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		23	12	6.73
MTC1:		204	64	59.65
Marcus:		40	15	11.7
Alamo:		19	6	5.56
Other chains:		79	21	23.1

 

Comps:

0.93x Wonka: $3.27 Million

1.32x Wish (TUE): $2.37 Million

1.11x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.43 Million

2.76x Migration: $4.14 Million

2.67x Trolls (THU): $3.47 Million

 

Average: $3.34 Million

 

Keeps doing pretty well here, went up against every comp save for Migration, which makes sense as the only non-Disney original IP here. We'll see about the final week, as the pre-sale buying audience shifts from fans of the franchise to families. Keen to see if this grabs their interest or not.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	82	97	439	11420	3.84

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		31	8	7.06
MTC1:		250	46	56.95
Marcus:		53	13	12.07
Alamo:		28	9	6.38
Other chains:		108	29	24.6

 

Comps:

1.01x Wonka: $3.53 Million

1.47x Wish (TUE): $2.64 Million

1.13x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.5 Million

2.6x Migration: $3.9 Million

2.83x Trolls (THU): $3.68 Million

 

Average: $3.45 Million

 

Continues to grow against every comp not named Migration (which had the quirk of being on a Thursday that many students had off for winter break, which is not the case in Minnesota right now for spring break). Can see the average (which, again, is being brought down by Wish, a comp with much lower ATP) ending up close to $4 million if it keeps growing like this.

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/3/2024 at 3:40 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	26	21	58	2356	2.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		40	11	68.97
Marcus:		6	2	10.34
Alamo:		5	3	8.62
Other chains:		7	5	12.07

 

Comps:

0.62x Thanksgiving: $615k

0.3x Exorcist Believer: $850k

0.97x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $725k

0.54x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $670k

 

Average: $715k

 

I'll be paying closest attention to the Demeter comp moving forward.

 

Cabrini (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	19	249	249	1641	15.17

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		76	76	30.52
Marcus:		48	48	19.28
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		125	125	50.2

 

Comps:

1.46x After Death: $585k

0.47x Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: $670k

1.19x Chosen S4 Eps 4-6: $925k

1.4x Chosen S4 Eps 7-8: $1.06 Million

 

Average: $810k

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	28	17	75	2540	2.95

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		55	15	73.33
Marcus:		8	2	10.67
Alamo:		5	0	6.67
Other chains:		7	0	9.33

 

Comps:

0.73x Thanksgiving: $730k

0.32x Exorcist Believer: $915k

1.09x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $815k

0.56x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $695k

 

Average: $790k

 

Did go up against every comp, which is a good sign, but at lower number sales overall there is a higher degree of variance. So beware of too many conclusions without seeing how the next few days play out.

 

Cabrini (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	23	33	282	1931	14.6

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		92	16	32.62
Marcus:		53	5	18.79
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		137	12	48.58

 

Comps:

1.49x After Death: $595k

0.47x Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: $675k

1.15x Chosen S4 Eps 4-6: $895k

1.43x Chosen S4 Eps 7-8: $1.09 Million

2.09x The Shift (w/ EA): $780k

 

Average: $805k

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

Dune 2 actuals finally reported:

Warner Bros this Morning estimate were 1 million above the actual BO.

 

TOTAL actual opening weekend:

81,505,391

 

FRIDAY: 32,211,366

SATURDAY: 27,718,894

SUNDAY: 21,575,131

 

 

@M37 2.7x seems to be ok because Dune 2 made 27.7 million Saturday against a 10M on Thursday reported by WB.

 

@charlie Jatinder was right about Dune over performing on Saturday yet the actuals brought up something a bit lower. Dune made 27,718,894 on its first Saturday.

@Shawn Robbins once again did a great job, projecting 80.9M for Dune opening weekend, only 600k away from the actuals. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another great track all around by the BOT folk. 🙂

[leoh]

5 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Another great track all around by the BOT folk. 🙂

 

Great job 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/3/2024 at 6:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
470	2208	95104	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

82

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-17

(0.469x) of Dune 2 $4.34M  

 

Comps average: $4.34M

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
478	2337	96731	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

129

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

(0.481x) of Dune 2 $4.45M  

 

Comps average: $4.45M