The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

I imagine the Coogler vampire movie next year will be what everyone rallies around as the savior of original action tentpoles next

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Hey, we all get angsty, so I get it.  And it hasn't exactly been sunshine and roses since Dune: Part Two.

 

But one thing that comes with age is seeing things repeat over and over and over again (this is one thing the reimagining of BSG nailed).  And so I can be a bit more... sanguine?  Yeah, let's go with sanguine about it all.  

 

Maybe in 12 to 18 months I won't be quite as chill about it all. But I just think this is one of those "lulls" for lack of a better term.

I mean Godzilla x Kong did make 20 million over even the highest predictions here. So that was nice. KFP2 overperformed and has great legs. March wasn’t bad at all. April has just killed us.

[AniNate]

July July July is what I keep repeating to myself

 

The IO2 / DM4 tandem seems like the next thing that will breathe some legit life into the box office

[el sid]

The Fall Guy, counted yesterday for Friday, had exactly 600 sold tickets (in 7 theaters). Pretty poor sales in the AMC Sunset Place in Miami (37), ok sales in the AMC Fresh Meadows in NY (78), best sales in the AMC Universal Cinema in California (280, no wonder).

 

Comps: BT (8M true Friday) had 655 sold tickets = 7.3M.

Uncharted (11.7M) had 715 = 9.8M.

Civil War (7.9M) had 1.012 = 4.7M.

Amsterdam (2.05M) had 121 = 10.15M.

(And TLC (9M) had 196 sold tickets (but very good jumps till Thursday) = 27.5M).

 

Average (without TLC because that number is just too good at the moment, later in the week I will include the presales of that movie): 8M true Friday for The Fall Guy.

Sounds quite reasonable to me. But seldomly have I tracked a movie where the success depended so much on the jumps in the release week and the walk-ups. You can see above, compared to Civil War the true Friday would be only 4.7M but compared to a film with good jumps and walk-ups as TLC it's 27.5M (at the moment).

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

July July July is what I keep repeating to myself

 

The IO2 / DM4 tandem seems like the next thing that will breathe some legit life into the box office

 

I think the whole second half of the year looks substantially stronger. Much of the first half of the year feels like studios dressing up films as tentpoles that there hasn't been a lot of demand for and hoping for the best.

 

The second half (starting in July) offers a lot more properties that are generating actual buzz. And it's not like they're all guaranteed hits. But there's a lot of movies where there's at least a core fan base that's really excited for it.

 

Deadpool, Moana, Joker, Wicked all fall into that camp. Gladiator, Sonic and Beetlejuice into a second tier. 

 

There's also similar generic hits littered throughout, where the draw is that it's just a blockbuster film. But, having some true fan interest properties is needed to keep people engaged.

[Cmasterclay]

I just don't consider Fall Guy to be the kind of original, daring filmmaking people are talking about tbh. The beats look extremely predictable, the action and car chases doesn't look particularly memorable or fantastic like a 90s action movie, and the entire thing kind of reeks of the snippy, "well that happened" jokes and then generic hero triumph formula (don't want to say MCU formula but...) that has pervaded films for awhile. I think The Watchers, Trap, Horizon, and to a lesser scale things like Kinds of Kindness, the Bikeriders, and Fly Me To The Moon are all much more original looking works, and much bigger tests for viability. 

[AniNate]

I'm pretty excited for Kindness but if Civil War and Challengers didn't do much to improve industry morale I doubt that's going to be a movie that does it

[YM!]

Garfield and Furiosa looking at 30m 4 day according to tracking 💀

[Eric the IF]

https://deadline.com/2024/04/box-office-summer-2024-deadpool-wolverine-beetlejuice-beetlejuice-furiosa-inside-out-2-1235899216/

 

Quote

The domestic box office at $2 billion currently this year is dragging 21% behind the same January-April spread last year, and when Universal’s The Fall Guy commences the hot moviegoing season this Friday with a hopeful $35M, expect summer to drag some more.

 

That’s because the lack of product due to the actors strike has made a backloaded May-through-Labor Day frame in what will be lucky — lucky — to hit $3 billion. That’s a $1 billion, or 27%, less than last summer’s $4.09 billion, per Comscore. More bad news about summer: It’s not going to catch up the year any more against 2023.

 

Several distribution insiders are still projecting an $8 billion domestic final box office for 2024, $1 billion off from 2023’s $9B. However, instead of summer repping 45% of the total year, which was the case in 2023 — it looks to be around 38%, a share roughly on par with pre-pandemic summers. That means there’s more moviegoing in the off-season to go around. I mean, we could see the biggest opening of the year in September — or even summer, if you want to extend it past Labor Day to September 6-8 — in Warner Bros.’ long-awaited Tim Burton-Michael Keaton sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 2024 A.D. It very un-shockingly could deliver a $100M+ opening, possibly toppling the month’s all-time biggest opener, It, from Warner’s New Line, which debuted to $123.4M in 2017. If the Avengers movies could jumpstart summer early in late-April, why can’t Beetlejuice Beetlejuice extend it?

 

 

Breaking down the months, May will be absent a $100M-plus opening, neither in this coming weekend nor Memorial Day weekend. There are notable sleeper tentpoles abounding, i.e. 20th Century Studios’ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($50M opening on May 10) and John Krasinski’s Ryan Reynolds all-audience imaginary friend feature, IF ($40M+ projection on May 17).

 

However, some are expecting — gulp — a coin toss between Sony’s Garfield and Warner Bros/Village Roadshow’s Max Max: Fury Road prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga in the $30M+ 4-day range over Memorial Day weekend, May 24-27.

 

One of the four movies expected to work this summer is Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2, which opens over Father’s Day weekend, June 14-16. From the hysterical and heartwarming footage shown at CinemaCon, the sequel returns Pixar to the charm and humor it is beloved for. The pic could be the first $100M opening of 2024.

 

The other goodie of June is Sony’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die on June 6 which six-week projection tracking firm Quorum has at a $60M start which is on par with the 3-day of the 2020 movie, Bad Boys for Life ($62.5M).

 

July contains three of four titles which rep the aorta of the summer box office: Illumination/Universal’s Despicable Me 4 on July 3 (pic will have a 5-day opening, a $100M start over that frame wouldn’t be shocking), Disney/Marvel Studios’ Deadpool & Wolverine on July 26 (many are putting pressure on this movie to be the belle of the ball), and Universal/Warner Bros’ Twisters on July 19. Deadpool & Wolverine reps the first R-rated superhero release for Disney’s MCU, the franchise inherited from the 20th Century Fox merger. Upside: Hugh Jackman is back after dying in Logan and the film has a three-week run in Imax (the longest hold of any title this summer), though the last week will be shared with Lionsgate’s Eli Roth feature take of videogame Borderlands on Aug. 9

 

Surprises this summer: New Line’s Kevin Costner 3-hour western Horizon “can be a $5M or a $100M movie” per one rival. M. Night Shyamalan can sometimes surprise, so don’t count his Josh Hartnett creepy dad at a young popstar concert feature, Trap, out on Aug. 9 (“It’s a sticky concept,” says one marketing exec). Both Trap and The Watchers on June 7 from Shyamalan’s daughter Ishana Shyamalan rep the first movies during the Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy administration at Warners, those execs luring the filmmakers over from Universal). Also, Paramount’s prequel, A Quiet Place: Day One, from Pig filmmaker Michael Sarnoski, which takes the action to New York City with Lupita Nyong’o, looks to reawaken the John Krasinski born franchise even more on June 28.

 

The other movie which many think could raise the bar is from NEON; yes NEON: Oz Perkins’ Nicolas Cage and Maika Monroe horror movie Longlegs. There’s been four poster teasers and WTF clips leading up to the main trailer drop which has some intrigued about its potential on July 12.

 

[Cmasterclay]

It's just a matter of whether enough theaters survive to stay open and weather the storm until September. I do think barring election or economic impacts that this September to December should catch up close to a billion in the total. And studios aren't going to go under. It's a matter of the theaters themselves.

[ringedmortality]

11 minutes ago, Eric Duncan said:

if you want to extend it past Labor Day to September 6-8 — in Warner Bros.’ long-awaited Tim Burton-Michael Keaton sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 2024 A.D. It very un-shockingly could deliver a $100M+ opening

 

Oh great he cursed it now

[Skim Beeble]

17 minutes ago, YM! said:

Garfield and Furiosa looking at 30m 4 day according to tracking 💀

My gut says that's probably accurate for Furiosa. As for Garfield, like Kung Fu Panda 4, seems like a wait-and-see type of movie in terms of presales.

[Cmasterclay]

I think Bad Boys gonna do quite a bit above that actually, and weird Quiet Place only got a cursory mention when it's apparently good and on track for a solid 50 or so opening. He's right about Furiosa though, that's always been my flop of the summer pick.

[AniNate]

Now would be an ideal time to open/reopen a movie theater I think. Easing into the summer season with a modest but steadier dumb fun slate.

 

I say this because three theaters are supposed to reopen near me soon.

[Eric the IF]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Bad Boys gonna do quite a bit above that actually, and weird Quiet Place only got a cursory mention when it's apparently good and on track for a solid 50 or so opening. He's right about Furiosa though, that's always been my flop of the summer pick.

Is Quiet Place really going for that? Would be pretty surprising for a spin-off with none of the original actors to open on par with the first opening.

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, Eric Duncan said:

Is Quiet Place really going for that? Would be pretty surprising for a spin-off with none of the original actors to open on par with the first opening.

IDK, trailer views and Quorum numbers are pretty good for it, and I think the franchise name has some clout. There's a desire for a movie like this. Plus, Lupita is a value added star in her own right. I think 40-55 range is reasonable target. And again, it's apparently good. 

[Maggie]

Those Deadline numbers are pretty depressing. Only the two animated movies look to do some solid business. And Bad Boys looks solid too. The rest of the summer is dead

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Those Deadline numbers are pretty depressing. Only the two animated movies look to do some solid business. And Bad Boys looks solid too. The rest of the summer is dead

I mean, Deadpool probably should make some money lol. 

[Legion Again]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No it is NOT that simple.  It only means they didn't want this one.  Doesn't mean a different one might strike a chord and take off.

 

Frankly, history is littered with well reviewed mainstream movies that didn't click initially for whatever reason, only to be "found" later.

 

(and, no, ain't gonna go trawling through BOM/the-numbers to find examples)

It doesn’t mean that they don’t want any “original well reviewed mainstream movies.” But it does mean that they won’t just show up to an original well reviewed mainstream movie for the sake of original well reviewed mainstream movies. A pretty obvious observation imo but people hoping otherwise is a decades long theme by now

[Krissykins]

And are Challengers and Civil War really that mainstream? Or are they basically arthouse films in 3500 cinemas. 
 

As a film fan, I’m loving 2024 though.