The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 5/1/2024 at 6:22 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-2, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 61

New Sales: 13

Growth: 27%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 47/6

Late Evening: 14/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 35/6

IMAX: 8/4

4DX: 13/2

 

EA sales

Total: 65

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.513x Wonka for $1.8M

0.616x GB:FE for $2.9M

0.123x GxK for $1.2M

0.167x HG:BoSS for $1.0M

Avg: $1.7M

 

While I'm not reporting it still, I do still have the comps with EA rolled in, which is giving an average of $3.6M. While we won't know for a while if those EA shows will help spread word of mouth on this, it feels like it's only served to split the preview audiences between Wednesday and Thursday, and as a result, there won't be as many packed houses for this.

 

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 79

New Sales: 18

Growth: 30%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 61/6

Late Evening: 18/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 46/6

IMAX: 10/4

4DX: 12/2

 

EA sales (T-0 yesterday from 6:45 pm)

Total: 135

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.451x Wonka for $1.6M

0.534x GB:FE for $2.5M

0.120x GxK for $1.2M

0.188x HG:BoSS for $1.1M

Avg: $1.6M

 

Dipping back down a bit on the final day on comps isn't the greatest sign. While the EAs had good walk ups, and I expect similar today, it doesn't feel like there's a lot of room for this to overperform. I didn't throw it into comps as I only had T-1, but it's behind both Challengers and Civil War for Thursday sales by a hefty margin.

 

When you roll in EA, I'm guessing we're looking at Thursday numbers of $2.5M or so.

 

It's not the start of summer we were hoping for .

 

Edited May 2 by vafrow

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-9 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 66

New Sales: 8

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.3

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 57/7

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 30/7

IMAX: 21/6

VIP: 15/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 29

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 3

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.377x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.116x Dune 2 for $1.2M

1.138x GB:FE for $5.3M

0.332x GxK for $3.3M

0.369x HG: BoSS for $2.1M

 

Average: $3.0M

 

I wouldn't say it's doing great, but it is trending in the right direction right now. Hopefully that continues.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-8 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 70

New Sales: 4

Growth: 6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 59/7

Late Evening: 8/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 30/7

IMAX: 21/6

VIP: 19/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 38

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 9

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.565x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.115x Dune 2 for $1.2M

1.111x GB:FE for $5.3M

0.343x GxK for $3.4M

0.363x HG: BoSS for $2.1M

 

Average: $3.0M

 

Nothing notable.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows Final - 21963/92957 468401.07 378 shows +5038

Previews(T-1) - 23429/379932 472393.91 1926 shows +4139 

Friday - 28125/729879 541667.41 3715 shows +6343

 

I expect early shows to over index MTC1 big time. May be 750K for early shows. No update to rest of the weekend predictions. May not hit 3m even with early shows. 

ATP of $20 for THU? Seems VERY HIGH. Civil War actual gross was well short last week vs tracked and checking on that, ATP there was $19 T-1. Wonder if something off there.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/1/2024 at 8:19 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-1	Jax	6	47	27	91	7,640	1.19%
		Phx	7	32	22	108	5,148	2.10%
		Ral	8	36	31	124	5,296	2.34%
	Total		21	115	80	323	18,084	1.79%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	10	5	84	2,007	4.19%
		Phx	1	2	10	39	618	6.31%
		Ral	2	2	1	54	412	13.11%
	Total		8	14	16	177	3,037	5.83%
Phantom Menace (Re) (OD)	T-2	Jax	5	41	14	257	4,055	6.34%
		Phx	7	37	38	295	3,695	7.98%
		Ral	7	36	14	317	3,680	8.61%
	Total		19	114	66	869	11,430	7.60%
Tarot	T-1	Jax	5	27	6	20	2,530	0.79%
		Phx	7	20	18	31	2,797	1.11%
		Ral	8	26	4	15	3,095	0.48%
	Total		20	73	28	66	8,422	0.78%

 

Fall Guy (EA) T-0 adjusted comps*

 - Bullet Train EA - .686x (1.04m)

 - Ungentlemanly EA - .381x (270k)

 - Lost City EA - .689x (634k)

 - Dog EA (Mon) - .651x (244k)

 - Challengers EA - 1.609x (885k)

 - Creed III EA - .456x (456k)

 - M:I 7 EA - .199x (239k)

 

These are admittedly all over the place.  Gut is saying like 600k for EA total

 

Fall Guy (Thu) T-1 adjusted comps*

 - Jungle Cruise - .699x (1.96m)

 - Bullet Train - .436x (1.49m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .773x (1.82m)

 - Civil War - .636x (1.84m)

 - Free Guy - .8x (1.83m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 1.65x (1.89m)

 - Lost City - .669x (2.02m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .562x (2.13m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.91m

 

*Split EA and preview comps

 

Tarot T-1 adjusted comps

 - M3GAN - .198x (543k)

 - Abigail - .559x (559k)

 - Talk to Me - .268x (334k)

 - The First Omen - 1.031x (748k)

 - Invitation - .629x (499k)

 - Immaculate - .943x (519k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 602k

 

Phantom Menace (OD) T-2 adjusted comps 

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .772x (3.02m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - .983x (3.55m)

 - Transformers 6 (Total) - .44x (3.1m)

 - F9 - .502x (3.1m)

 - Morbius - .613x (2.93m)

 - Indiana Jones - .528x (3.12m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - .705x (2.55m)

 - Matrix 4 (OD) - .311x (2.1m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-0	Jax	6	47	57	148	7,640	1.94%
		Phx	7	32	67	175	5,148	3.40%
		Ral	8	36	32	156	5,296	2.95%
	Total		21	115	156	479	18,084	2.65%
Phantom Menace (Re) (OD)	T-1	Jax	5	41	43	300	4,055	7.40%
		Phx	7	37	33	328	3,695	8.88%
		Ral	7	36	37	354	3,680	9.62%
	Total		19	114	113	982	11,430	8.59%
Tarot	T-0	Jax	5	27	31	51	2,530	2.02%
		Phx	7	20	20	51	2,797	1.82%
		Ral	8	26	13	28	3,095	0.90%
	Total		20	73	64	130	8,422	1.54%

 

Fall Guy (Thu) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Jungle Cruise - .702x (1.97m)

 - Bullet Train - .459x (1.57m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .808x (1.91m)

 - Civil War - .685x (1.99m)

 - Free Guy - .836x (1.91m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 1.69x (1.94m)

 - Lost City - .698x (2.11m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .592x (2.25m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.98m

Growth model forecast - 1.65m

 

A few other smaller release comps for fun:

 - Snake Eyes - 1.16x (1.72m)

 - Gran Turismo - 1.54x (2.15m)

 - Devotion - 2.65x (1.97m)

 

I know this looks like an amazing day compared to the last week, but it's only a slightly better growth than most of the comps.  Still one of the lowest in the last three days growth.   Hoping for +60ish% today which would bring the average to... 2.03m.  Unless walkups are insane I think 2m is a good goal for true previews.

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Fall Guy	122.79%	32.09%	22.60%	48.30%
Jungle Cruise	185.36%	28.03%	29.07%	47.62%
Bullet Train	140.55%	26.50%	24.45%	40.89%
Cocaine Bear	144.03%	32.92%	9.82%	41.87%
Civil War	134.56%	34.90%	38.66%	37.60%
Free Guy	87.87%	33.44%	51.23%	41.83%
Paradise	-	-	-	44.39%
Lost City	151.28%	25.64%	12.81%	42.03%
Equalizer 3	116.89%	32.44%	38.89%	40.70%

 

 

Tarot T-0 adjusted comps

 - M3GAN - .213x (586k)

 - Abigail - .65x (650k)

 - Talk to Me - .339x (423k)

 - The First Omen - 1.215x (881k)

 - Invitation - .695x (552k)

 - Immaculate - 1.238x (681k)

 - Prey for the Devil - .935x (632k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 681k

Growth model forecast - 652k

 

This one was a bit more impressive (and even more needed).  Hopefully a good sign for both movies heading into the final day.

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Tarot	261.11%	27.78%	30.77%	96.97%
M3GAN	-	-	-	82.63%
Abigail	170.27%	45.95%	30.00%	69.49%
Talk to Me	275.49%	47.06%	42.59%	55.69%
First Omen	224.24%	33.33%	-	67.19%
The Invitation	356.10%	-	-	78.10%
Immaculate	238.71%	77.42%	-	50.00%
Prey for the Devil	-	-	-	41.84%

 

 

Phantom Menace (OD) T-1 adjusted comps 

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .68x (2.66m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - .876x (3.16m)

 - Transformers 6 (Total) - .394x (2.77m)

 - F9 - .45x (2.78m)

 - Morbius - .567x (2.71m)

 - Indiana Jones - .514x (3.03m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - .676x (2.44m)

 - Matrix 4 (OD) - .302x (2.04m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.12m

 

Slipping a bit as the early fan rush will account for a large portion of final sales.  Saturday will be key with SW day.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/1/2024 at 8:23 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-8	Jax	5	48	8	90	8,321	1.08%
		Phx	6	40	2	98	7,757	1.26%
		Ral	8	43	6	91	6,314	1.44%
	Total		19	131	16	279	22,392	1.25%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	9	-2	106	1,802	5.88%
		Phx	1	2	6	63	618	10.19%
		Ral	2	2	4	53	412	12.86%
	Total		8	13	8	222	2,832	7.84%

 

T-8 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.432x

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .504x (4.44m)

 - F9 - .557x (4.19m)

 - Dune - .674x (3.57m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .657x (4.3m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .714x (4.24m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .481x (2.96m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .694x (6.26m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.96m

 

Added Godzilla which brought the average way up

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-7	Jax	5	48	9	99	8,321	1.19%
		Phx	6	40	7	105	7,757	1.35%
		Ral	8	43	5	96	6,314	1.52%
	Total		19	131	21	300	22,392	1.34%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	9	3	109	1,802	6.05%
		Phx	1	2	9	72	618	11.65%
		Ral	2	2	3	56	412	13.59%
	Total		8	13	15	237	2,832	8.37%

 

T-7 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.43x

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .487x (4.28m)

 - F9 - .556x (4.19m)

 - Dune - .653x (3.46m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .61x (3.99m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .671x (3.98m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .452x (2.78m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .691x (6.23m)

 - Uncharted - 1.126x (4.26m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.68m

[JWR]

Any comparison numbers for Kingdom?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/1/2024 at 8:31 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
IF	T-15	Jax	5	22	10	24	3,641	0.66%
		Phx	6	24	23	28	3,847	0.73%
		Ral	8	27	2	28	3,939	0.71%
	Total		19	73	35	80	11,427	0.70%

 

Day 2 comps

 - Garfield (Total) - 1.111x

 - TMNT - .217x (1.07m)

- Sonic 2 - .352x (2.25m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
IF	T-14	Jax	5	22	10	34	3,641	0.93%
		Phx	6	24	2	30	3,847	0.78%
		Ral	8	27	0	28	3,939	0.71%
	Total		19	73	12	92	11,427	0.81%

 

T-14 adjusted comps

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .215x (1.38m)

 - Minions 2 - .343x (3.02m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .347x (1.08m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .194x (956k)

 

Not really liking any of these comps... hopefully more will pop up by next Thursday's update.

[emoviefan]

It's crazy we are talking about a 25 year old movie with a divisive reputation to save the first weekend of May or at least make it less terrible looking. But here we are. My Top 5 for the weekend with ranges- 1) The Fall Guy 25-32 if WOM powered walkups power it least a little bit 2)TPM 18-25 mostly with saturday being the big day duh.3)Tarot 8-12 the same range as every other original horror this year so far 4)Challengers  7-9.5 yesterday and today;s numbers will tell the tale for how well that can hold and 5)GXK  4.5-6.0 depending on if TPM and even The Fall Guy hurt it a little.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/24/2024 at 7:57 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Garfield	T-29	Jax	5	30	0	1	3,091	0.03%
		Phx	6	34	1	9	5,918	0.15%
		Ral	7	34	3	16	4,734	0.34%
	Total		18	98	4	26	13,743	0.19%
Garfield (EA)	T-25	Jax	2	2	9	24	173	13.87%
		Phx	1	1	5	22	49	44.90%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		4	4	14	46	295	15.59%

 

Garfield (Total) Day 2 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .317x (2.39m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .196x (1.16m)

 - Minions 2 - .735x (7.92m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .247x (1.09m)

 

Moving to Thursday only posts until closer to release

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Garfield	T-21	Jax	5	30	0	1	3,091	0.03%
		Phx	6	34	0	13	5,918	0.22%
		Ral	7	34	4	25	4,734	0.53%
	Total		18	98	4	39	13,743	0.28%
Garfield (EA)	T-17	Jax	2	2	4	36	173	20.81%
		Phx	1	1	0	32	49	65.31%
		Ral	1	1	0	6	73	8.22%
	Total		4	4	4	74	295	25.08%

 

Garfield (Total) T-21adjusted comps

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .409x (2.93m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .649x (2.25m)

 

Not really great comps here either, but that'll have to do for now.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

28 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

It's crazy we are talking about a 25 year old movie with a divisive reputation to save the first weekend of May or at least make it less terrible looking. But here we are. My Top 5 for the weekend with ranges- 1) The Fall Guy 25-32 if WOM powered walkups power it least a little bit 2)TPM 18-25 mostly with saturday being the big day duh.3)Tarot 8-12 the same range as every other original horror this year so far 4)Challengers  7-9.5 yesterday and today;s numbers will tell the tale for how well that can hold and 5)GXK  4.5-6.0 depending on if TPM and even The Fall Guy hurt it a little.

TPM is not doing 18-25, rereleases are fan heavy and behave very differently from normal ones

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

TPM is not doing 18-25, rereleases are fan heavy and behave very differently from normal ones

And I would agree with that if this were being released on  some random weekend in Jan or Feb or whenever. They timed this for a reason. But looking at Friday's sales going down Saturday would have to really explode to hit the 25 so I will lower the range to 13-20 or something.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/1/2024 at 9:35 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Fall Guy (EA) - 94/1,171 (5 shows)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - .68x (845k)

 - Batman (EA) - .21x (843k)

 

Fall Guy (Thu) - 80/7,963

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .332x (1.11m)

 - Beast - 1.95x (1.8m)

 - Massive Talent - 1.818x (1.52m)

 - Civil War - .37x (1.07m)

 - Ungentlemanly - 2.22x (1.89m)

 

 Bullet Train total is at 1.96m (without any adjustment)

 

Tarot - 27/4,161

 - Firestarter - 2.25x (844k)

 - Northman - .17x (229k)

 - Abigail - .415x (415k)

 

Phantom Menace (Fri) - 510/5,040 

 - Dragon Ball Z - .445x (2.94m)

 - Avatar 2 - .1x (3.6m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .104x (3.4m)

 - Batman - .079x (2.77m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Fall Guy (Thu) - 152/7,963

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .33x (1.11m)

 - Beast - 1.924x (1.78m)

 - Massive Talent - 1.831x (1.53m)

 - Civil War - .439x (1.27m)

 - Ungentlemanly - 2.27x (1.93m)

 

Did a +90%.  For comparison: Bullet Train (+91%), Beast (+93%), Massive Talent (+89%), Civil War (+60%) and Ungentlemanly (+86%).  Pretty much hit expectations just like the regionals.  As a reminded - these are all unadjusted comps (inflation/ATP).  Ungentlemanly, Monkey Man and Challengers all pointing to right at 2m so I'll go with the recent trend!

 

Tarot - 61/4,161

 - Firestarter - 2.26x (847k)

 - Northman - .264x (356k)

 - Abigail - .526x (526k)

 - First Omen - .56x (406k)

 - Smile - .384x (652k)

 

Pretty wide range. I'll go with 650k based on yesterday's growth.

 

Phantom Menace (Fri) - 534/5,040 

 - Dragon Ball Z - .387x (2.56m)

 - Avatar 2 - .089x (3.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .092x (3.02m)

 - Batman - .069x (2.42m)

 - Spy x Family - 2.427x (3.73m)

 

Thinking around 3m for Friday

[Gavin Feng]

suddenly I can’t read English 

 

 

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

suddenly I can’t read English 

 

 

IndieWire is one of the worst movie websites currently going. They are absolute filthy trash.

[filmlover]

34 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

suddenly I can’t read English 

 

 

Literally

[TwoMisfits]

57 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

suddenly I can’t read English 

 

 

 

So, reading the article title, he ruled out all results for the Fall Guy between $30-$50M...seems a risky approach...

[SpiderByte]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

And I would agree with that if this were being released on  some random weekend in Jan or Feb or whenever. They timed this for a reason. But looking at Friday's sales going down Saturday would have to really explode to hit the 25 so I will lower the range to 13-20 or something.

Yes, because of a pun.

[Boxofficerules]

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Not Another Church Movie is on sale as well.  I'm only seeing ~300 theaters so far; not sure if it's gonna be very limited or they are just now adding shows.  Releases next week

[kayumanggi]