Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[Daxtreme]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

box office desert

 

[DInky]

15 minutes ago, ozardvark said:

Saw it with the Dune re-release and it looked like they've significantly improved the CGI. Looked incredible. 

 

Which is interesting because they actually got this into production fast (the movie was ready to go just 2 years after the first released) and the budget is not substantially bigger (especially if you consider that all the leads probably got a pay rise).

[wildphantom]

Trailers I had in my IMAX showing….

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Godzilla x Kong

Furiosa

Quiet Place: Day One

The Fall Guy

[Blankments]

it's march 1! @Eric Atreides @WrathOfHan

 

11x:

 

Bob Marley: One Love: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby, Meg 2: The Trench Dolby, Shortcomings, Strays, The Nun II Dolby, Stop Making Sense IMAX, Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, The Color Purple, I.S.S., The Zone of Interest

 

9x:

 

Dune: Part Two: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Dolby, Oppenheimer IMAX 15/70mm, Meg 2: The Trench Dolby, Oppenheimer Round 3 IMAX, The Nun II Dolby, Batman Begins, Wonka, Oppenheimer Round 5 IMAX, The Color Purple

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: The Marvels Dolby, Thanksgiving, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, Godzilla Minus One, Poor Things, The Iron Claw, Napoleon, All of Us Strangers, I.S.S.

 

8x:

 

Inside Out 2: Trolls Band Together, Wish Dolby, The Boy and the Heron Round 2, Wonka, Migration, Soul Round 2, The Color Purple, Turning Red Round 2

 

7x:

 

Turning Red: The Addams Family 2, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Encanto Dolby Atmos, West Side Story Dolby Round 0, Sing 2 Dolby, Wonka, Migration

 

6x:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: The Marvels Dolby, The Boy and the Heron Round 2, Wonka, The Book of Clarence, Napoleon, I.S.S.

 

5x:

 

Arthur the King: The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, The Iron Claw, The Boy and the Heron Round 2, Napoleon, I.S.S.

The Garfield Movie: Trolls Band Together, Wish Dolby, Migration, Soul Round 2, Turning Red Round 2

Kung Fu Panda 4: The Boy and the Heron Round 2, Wonka, Migration, Soul Round 2, Turning Red Round 2

 

4x:

 

White Bird: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Dolby, Elemental 3D, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Round 3 Dolby

Drive-Away Dolls: Asteroid City, Asteroid City Round 2, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Dolby, Talk to Me

Problemista: You Hurt My Feelings, Past Lives, Talk to Me, The Zone of Interest

Imaginary: The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, Godzilla Minus One, Poor Things, Out of Darkness

If: Wonka, Migration, Soul Round 2, Turning Red Round 2

 

 

3x:

 

Luca: Raya and the Last Dragon Dolby, Wonka, Migration
The Fall Guy: The Marvels Dolby, The Iron Claw, Oppenheimer Round 5 IMAX
Lisa Frankenstein: Five Nights at Freddy’s, Priscilla, Out of Darkness

2x:

Fantastic Four: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man
Adhira: RRR, RRR Round 2
Challengers: No Hard Feelings, Barbie
Godzilla x Kong: A New Empire: Wonka, The Color Purple
The American Society of Magical Negroes: The Book of Clarence, The Color Purple
Civil War: The Iron Claw, The Zone of Interest
Madame Web: The Book of Clarence, The Zone of Interest
Love Lies Bleeding: The Iron Claw, Out of Darkness
The First Omen: All of Us Strangers, Out of Darkness
Ordinary Angels: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Turning Red Round 2

1x:

MaXXXine: Pearl
Elio: Elemental 3D
Unsung Hero: The Color Purple
Land of Bad: I.S.S.
Abigail: I.S.S.
One Life: I.S.S.
Out of Darkness: I.S.S.
Housekeeping for Beginners: The Zone of Interest
Sasquatch Sunset: Out of Darkness
Despicable Me 4: Turning Red Round 2

 

Edited March 1 by Blankments

[PNF2187]

7 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Trailers I had in my IMAX showing….

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Godzilla x Kong

Furiosa

Quiet Place: Day One

The Fall Guy

I had this plus Ghostbusters and Civil War... so pretty much everything on the IMAX website through the end of June save for Inside Out 2.

[Eric the IF]

2 hours ago, Daxtreme said:

$11M was horrible

 

$12M - looks like EVERYTHING is back on the menu boys?!

 

Am I doing BOT correctly

I know it sounds silly, but this is honestly valid? Every million in a preview number counts in terms of a film's potential box office opening and appeal. Like an 11M opening would indicate low-mid 70s, and now we're probably getting to high 70s with a shot at 80M. It matters.

[von Kenni]

20 hours ago, von Kenni said:

OK final estimates from me before Preview actuals.

 

Not jumping on the gloom-doom train but also wondering how that affects my numbers here...if I intentionally suppress it in parts.

 

Here are ATP developments from the last 5 days

 

						Estimates
	Dune 2 / Dune 1 ATP Difference Last 5 Days					Today	Tomorrow	Saturday
THU	5.81%	5.67%	5.33%	5.26%	5.35%	5.20%
FRI	6.81%	6.60%	6.35%	6.03%	5.91%	5.70%	5.50%
SAT	6.56%							5.40%

 

I'll use the 5.2% ATP Dune 1 comp increase in my tables for THU previews.

 

Here are Dune 1 Presale comps from the last 5 days (notice SAT!)

 

	Dune 2 / Dune 1 Presales Comp Last 5 Days
THU	181%	182%	188%	187%	182%
FRI	187%	187%	190%	188%	183%
SAT	264%

 

I'm projecting in the table below how Dune 2 / Dune 1 Walkups Comp affects the final THU Preview outcome. E.g. if the walkups are double compared to Dune 1, previews are around $10M but if they are just 150% (while the comps have been 181-188% for THU past 5 days - 181-182% being perhaps the "baseline"), i.e. much less than the baseline, then THU previews are only $9.3M (all previews here without EA).

 

Here is a thorough breakdown of that comp relationship

 

 

If I'd know Oppy's THU walkups, I could make better educated guesses but now it is more of showing a possible spread and finding the middle ground. Conclusion:

 

With an 80% confidence level, the THU previews will hit between $9.3M and $9.9M (20% chance outside). The midpoint is $9.6M. Down from the yesterday's $9.9M.

 

 

Regarding OW I am expecting a higher IM (8) than yesterday (7.8-7.9) simply because of the weekend presales of Dune 2. More background data below:

 

	MTC1 Weekend Spread Dune 1 vs 2
	Dune 1		Dune 2		Difference
THU (T-5)	44211	35%	80224	31%	181%
FRI (T-6)	47266	37%	88344	34%	187%
SAT (T-7)	34878	28%	92163	35%	264%
	126355		260731

 

	Dune MTC1 Weekend T-5 vs. T-1 (THU)
THU	80224	31%	125368	28%
FRI	88344	34%	154760	35%
SAT	92163	35%	164927	37%
	260731		445055

 

Dune 1 had an IM of 8.05. Presales imply that it should go higher this time but I'll keep it conservatively at 8 as of now. Conclusions:

 

With an 80% confidence level, OW is between $74-83M with an expected value of $79M. I.e. $1M less on all accounts since yesterday's estimates.

 

 

You can use the above tables for weekend projections too. I'll do an updated version later today focusing on the IM based on Dune 1 comps but already IF the THU previews are

 

$9.6M it's about 1/3 chance that OW is over $80M

 

$9.8M about 55% chance

$9.9M about 80+% chance, I.e. highly likely

$10M about 90+% chance 

 

Subject to change after my updated IM estimates tonight.

 

What a thriller!

[Eric the IF]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Unrelated to Dune, but now that I'm working now and no longer in school, I have more time on my hands in my non-work hours, and have been trying to catch up on (good) movies from the 80s-90s-00s that I've never seen (so if any of you have recommendations, send them my way!)

Imma do the opposite and recommend you stuff from before the 80s. I saw your Letterboxd, and you really need to be cultured on the real classics.

 

Spoiler

City Lights

I Am a Fugitive From a Chain Gang

Gold Diggers of 1933

The Invisible Man

Duck Soup

Bride of Frankenstein

The Adventures of Robin Hood

The Wizard of Oz (HOW HAVE YOU NOT SEEN THIS)

Pinocchio

The Philadelphia Story

Citizen Kane

Bambi

Casablanca

Double Indemnity

Beauty and the Beast (1946)

One Wonderful Sunday

Out of the Past

Treasure of the Sierra Madre

Bicycle Thieves

Cinderella

Sunset Boulevard

A Streetcar Named Desire

Singin' in the Rain

Ikiru

East of Eden

Lady and the Tramp

Rebel Without a Cause

A Face in the Crowd

Vertigo

Imitation of Life

Some Like it Hot

Black Orpheus

The Apartment

One Hundred and One Dalmatians

The Hustler

West Side Story (1961)

Cleo from 5 to 7

What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?

To Kill a Mockingbird

Days of Wine and Roses

8 1/2

Mary Poppins

The Sound of Music

The Great Race

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

In the Heat of the Night

The Jungle Book

Z

The Wild Bunch

The Boys in the Band

McCabe & Mrs. Miller

The Last Picture Show

The French Connection

A Clockwork Orange

What's Up Doc?
The Godfather (HOW HAVE YOU NOT SEEN THIS)

Paper Moon

The Exorcist

Phantom of the Paradise

The Godfather Part II

Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Jeanne Dielman

Jaws (HOW HAVE YOU NOT SEEN THIS)

Dog Day Afternoon

One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Barry Lyndon

Taxi Driver

All the President's Men

Rocky

The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh

House

Close Encounters of the Third Kind

Superman

 

And that is just the movies I gave 5 stars to. I have like a million more movies to recommend you dawg. But I think this is a good starting lineup.

[AniNate]

53 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

I know it sounds silly, but this is honestly valid? Every million in a preview number counts in terms of a film's potential box office opening and appeal. Like an 11M opening would indicate low-mid 70s, and now we're probably getting to high 70s with a shot at 80M. It matters.

 

The margins matter on like a 10% threshold or so. Dune's previews are on the borderline.

[AniNate]

On the subject of classics, Fritz Lang did a couple two-part epics that I think are pretty obscure even among the cinephile circles, but they're both quite worth watching. One is the silent Die Nibelungen (Siegfried / Kriemhild's Revenge) and the other is the Indian saga Tiger of Eschnapur / Indian Tomb from the late 1950s

[Eric the IF]

@Blankments @WrathOfHan Let's do this.

 

10x:

Argylle: The Creator, Killers of the Flower Moon, Priscilla, The Holdovers, Napoleon, Godzilla Minus One, The Color Purple, Mean Girls, American Fiction, The Boys in the Boat

Dune: Part Two: Fast X, Oppenheimer, Oppenheimer Round 2, Haunted Mansion, Blue Beetle, The Nun 2, The Iron Claw, Mean Girls, Anyone But You, Lisa Frankenstein

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: Napoleon, Godzilla Minus One, The Iron Claw, Ferrari, Poor Things, Anyone But You, The Boys in the Boat, Dune, Dune: Part Two, All of Us Strangers

 

8x:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire: Wonka Round 2, The Color Purple, Poor Things, The Book of Clarence, American Fiction, The Boys in the Boat, The Beekeeper, Dune: Part Two

Challengers: No Hard Feelings, Joy Ride, Barbie, Mean Girls, American Fiction, Anyone But You, The Boys in the Boat, The Beekeeper

Inside Out 2: Wonka, The Boy and the Heron, Wonka Round 2, The Color Purple, Soul, Wish, Migration, Turning Red

 

7x:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: Napoleon, The Book of Clarence, Anyone But You, The Boys in the Boat, Dune, Dune: Part Two, All of Us Strangers

The First Omen: Poor Things, The Book of Clarence, American Fiction, Lisa Frankenstein, Argylle, Drive-Away Dolls, All of Us Strangers

 

6x:

Madame Web: Napoleon, Wonka, Poor Things, The Book of Clarence, The Beekeeper, Dune

Ordinary Angels: Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, Theater Camp, Soul, Wish, Migration, Turning Red

Arthur the King: The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Napoleon, The Iron Claw, The Boy and the Heron, Wonka Round 2, All of Us Strangers

The Fall Guy: The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, The Iron Claw, Anyone But You, Dune, Argylle, Dune: Part Two

Elio: Frozen, Beauty and the Beast, The Incredibles, Coco, The Lion King, Moana

 

5x:

Turning Red: West Side Story, The Boy and the Heron, Wonka Round 2, Wish, Migration

 

4x:

Soul: The Boy and the Heron, Wonka Round 2, Wish, Migration

Origin: Ferrari, The Color Purple, The Book of Clarence, American Fiction

Kung Fu Panda 4: The Boy and the Heron, Wonka Round 2, Soul, Migration

Luca: The Boy and the Heron, Wonka Round 2, Wish, Migration

Abigail: The Book of Clarence, The Beekeeper, The Zone of Interest, Lisa Frankenstein

The Garfield Movie: Soul, Wish, Migration, Turning Red

 

3x:

Mean Girls: The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Wonka, Wonka Round 2

Bob Marley: One Love: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One, Killers of the Flower Moon, Mean Girls

Drive-Away Dolls: Past Lives, Asteroid City, The Holdovers

Problemista: Past Lives, Talk to Me, The Zone of Interest

Civil War: The Iron Claw, Ferrari, The Zone of Interest

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: Argylle, Drive-Away Dolls, Dune: Part Two

Furiosa: Ferrari, Drive-Away Dolls, Dune: Part Two

The Bikeriders: The Creator, Ferrari, The Beekeeper

White Bird: Thor: Love and Thunder, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, The Little Mermaid

 

2x:

The Beekeeper: Godzilla Minus One, Ferrari

Lisa Frankenstein: The Holdovers, Mean Girls

Perfect Days: Ferrari, The Zone of Interest

Imaginary: The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Mean Girls

The American Society of Magical Negroes: Lisa Frankenstein, Drive-Away Dolls

Back to Black: Lisa Frankenstein, Drive-Away Dolls

IF: Mean Girls, Dune: Part Two

 

1x:

The Book of Clarence: The Equalizer 3

Amelie: Anyone But You

Land of Bad: The Beekeeper

Tenet: Dune

Love Lies Bleeding: The Iron Claw

Monkey Man: Argylle

Despicable Me 4: Turning Red

The Unbreakable Boy: King Richard

[vale9001]

With 75-80 in the Us result could reach 200M global opening 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 1 by vale9001

[Jake Gittes]

3 hours ago, DAJK said:

Unrelated to Dune, but now that I'm working now and no longer in school, I have more time on my hands in my non-work hours, and have been trying to catch up on (good) movies from the 80s-90s-00s that I've never seen (so if any of you have recommendations, send them my way!)

 

Heat

[ozardvark]

59 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Imma do the opposite and recommend you stuff from before the 80s. I saw your Letterboxd, and you really need to be cultured on the real classics.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

City Lights

I Am a Fugitive From a Chain Gang

Gold Diggers of 1933

The Invisible Man

Duck Soup

Bride of Frankenstein

The Adventures of Robin Hood

The Wizard of Oz (HOW HAVE YOU NOT SEEN THIS)

Pinocchio

The Philadelphia Story

Citizen Kane

Bambi

Casablanca

Double Indemnity

Beauty and the Beast (1946)

One Wonderful Sunday

Out of the Past

Treasure of the Sierra Madre

Bicycle Thieves

Cinderella

Sunset Boulevard

A Streetcar Named Desire

Singin' in the Rain

Ikiru

East of Eden

Lady and the Tramp

Rebel Without a Cause

A Face in the Crowd

Vertigo

Imitation of Life

Some Like it Hot

Black Orpheus

The Apartment

One Hundred and One Dalmatians

The Hustler

West Side Story (1961)

Cleo from 5 to 7

What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?

To Kill a Mockingbird

Days of Wine and Roses

8 1/2

Mary Poppins

The Sound of Music

The Great Race

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

In the Heat of the Night

The Jungle Book

Z

The Wild Bunch

The Boys in the Band

McCabe & Mrs. Miller

The Last Picture Show

The French Connection

A Clockwork Orange

What's Up Doc?
The Godfather (HOW HAVE YOU NOT SEEN THIS)

Paper Moon

The Exorcist

Phantom of the Paradise

The Godfather Part II

Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Jeanne Dielman

Jaws (HOW HAVE YOU NOT SEEN THIS)

Dog Day Afternoon

One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Barry Lyndon

Taxi Driver

All the President's Men

Rocky

The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh

House

Close Encounters of the Third Kind

Superman

 

And that is just the movies I gave 5 stars to. I have like a million more movies to recommend you dawg. But I think this is a good starting lineup.

Watch that list an read Film Art by David Bordwell (who sadly died today) and you've got yourself a free film studies degree. 

[WrathOfHan]

@Blankments@Eric Atreides We need new trailers stat

 

6x:

Argylle (Killers of the Flower Moon, Five Nights at Freddy’s, The Holdovers, Oppenheimer IMAX Re-Release, Napoleon, Saltburn)

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (The Marvels, Napoleon, The Iron Claw, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two)

 

5x:

Bob Marley: One Love (Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers, Napoleon, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release)

The Fall Guy (The Marvels, The Iron Claw, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two)

Ghosbusters: Frozen Empire (Napoleon, Wonka, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two)

 

4x:

Civil War (The Iron Claw, Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two)

Drive-Away Dolls (Asteroid City, No Hard Feelings, The Holdovers, Napoleon)

Dune: Part Two (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Oppenheimer, Tenet IMAX)

 

3x:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two)

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire (Dune: Part One IMAX Re-Release, Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two)

 

2x:

Challengers (No Hard Feelings, Barbie)

Lisa Frankenstein (Five Nights at Freddy’s, The Holdovers)

Madame Web (Napoleon, Wonka)

Twisters (Tenet IMAX Re-Release, Dune: Part Two)

 

1x:

A Quiet Place: Day One (Dune: Part Two)

Arthur the King (The Iron Claw)

Elio (Elemental)

Love Lies Bleeding (The Iron Claw)

Problemista (Past Lives)

White Bird (Elemental)

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

20 minutes ago, ozardvark said:

Watch that list an read Film Art by David Bordwell (who sadly died today) and you've got yourself a free film studies degree. 

Oh man, didn't know he died today. Was introduced to him through his analysis of Nolan's films (and was hoping we'd get a 3rd edition of his book on Nolan, after Tenet and Oppenheimer), and he's probably my favourite contemporary film theorist. RIP

Edited March 1 by lorddemaxus

[ozardvark]

12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Oh man, didn't know he died today. Was introduced to him through his analysis of Nolan's films (and was hoping we'd get a 3rd edition of his book on Nolan, after Tenet and Oppenheimer), and he's probably my favourite contemporary film theorist. RIP

Yeah, he was an emeritus professor for me when I was a grad student. Both he and his wife, Kristin Thompson (an exceptional scholar in her own right), were so approachable and knowledgeable, much like their writing on film. 

Edited March 1 by ozardvark

[TMP]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

On the subject of classics, Fritz Lang did a couple two-part epics that I think are pretty obscure even among the cinephile circles, but they're both quite worth watching. One is the silent Die Nibelungen (Siegfried / Kriemhild's Revenge) and the other is the Indian saga Tiger of Eschnapur / Indian Tomb from the late 1950s

A Die Nibelugen/Wagner’s The Ring double feature would pretty much turn even the most uncivilized into a bastion of culture

[Avatree]

1 hour to go until my showing. Dune 2 is on 5 screens out of 9 and all showings after 6pm were over 80% sold out, both imax showings sold out.

 

 

Edited March 1 by Avatree

[TMP]

5 hours ago, DAJK said:

Unrelated to Dune, but now that I'm working now and no longer in school, I have more time on my hands in my non-work hours, and have been trying to catch up on (good) movies from the 80s-90s-00s that I've never seen (so if any of you have recommendations, send them my way!)

Beau Travail by Claire Denis in terms of 90’s stuff

If you wanna watch some great classics, I burnt through a bunch recently that I thought were immensely fun:

-Jeckyl/Hyde 1931 (camera work for this thing is nuts)

-Jean Coctau’s Beauty & The Beast

-Wuthering Heights w/ Olivier (biased on this one since I love the book immensely)