JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM | 22 JUN 2018 | Universal | J.A. Bayona to direct | The Park is Closed | NOT THE FRANCHISE WARS THREAD

[Krissykins]

Deadline said projections are $130-150m and no one is expecting a $200m opener like last time. 

 

$150m would be fine, but I hope it doesn’t do a Deadpool or Solo and miss it’s low end tracking all together. 

 

For reference: Jurassic World was tracking at $110-140m in 2015, before doing a then record of $208m. 

[Brainbug]

http://deadline.com/2018/05/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-box-office-opening-projection-chris-pratt-1202400803/

 

‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Eyes $130M-$150M Stateside Start – Early Projection

 

Forecasts are percolating for Universal’s June 22 release Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and in regards to those figures this far out, know that they can fluctuate wildly for an event film of this size. A safe bet for the dinosaur sequel is an opening range of $130M-$150M range per Deadline sources.

 

Total awareness, unaided, and definite interest are either slightly above or in sync with the first 2015 reboot, with first choice, a few points behind, but not greatly. The first Jurassic World had pre-week projections of $110M-$140M and shocked the industry when it soared to a then all-time record opening record (before Disney’s Force Awakens and Last Jedi) of $208.8M. The notion was that the sampling of $100M openings is small statistically, and therefore more of a challenge to make forecasts from — which is still true. In addition, what clouds some analysts’ projections is when a number of event titles arrive on tracking as they’re all measured against each other, and that can throw off projections (whether they come from the studio or a rival). While Avengers: Infinity War was the huge opener everyone was expecting, Deadpool 2 filed under its low-end $130M opening projection with $125.5M (which is still great), while Solo: A Star Wars Story was well below its $130M bottom end 4-day with $110.3M.  Fallen Kingdom is a sequel, we’ll remind you, so no one is expecting that shock-and-awe legacy opening that the 2015 film yielded; everyone is just expecting another healthy $100M-plus opening this summer.

 

Fallen Kingdom gets a head start abroad before we get to savor it, the overseas schedule is as follows:

Wednesday, June 6  — Belgium, France, Germany, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Switzerland (F)

Thursday, June 7   — Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Lebanon, Malaysia, Netherlands, Middle East, Portugal, Russia, Serbia & Montenegro, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland (G), Thailand, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates.

Friday, June 8    — Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, India, Latvia, Lithuania, Mongolia, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, South Africa, Sweden, Taiwan, Turkey, United Kingdom, Vietnam

Friday, June 15   — China, Egypt

Friday, June 22   — Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, New Zealand, Paraguay, Peru, Slovakia, Trinidad, Uruguay, Ecuador, Mexico, Venezuela

[Alli]

I said 160M last week, but it might be too much

[Yandereprime101189]

I think I'll go with $165 million

[Mekanos]

I'm wondering how big it will open after Incredibles 2 is poised to open in the 140 million range. Would be the first time since May 2007 that a month has two 100 openers in the same month, let alone back-to-back.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Mekanos

[Avatree]

8 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I'm wondering how big it will open after Incredibles 2 is poised to open in the 140 million range. Would be the first time since May 2007 that a month has two 100 openers in the same month, let alone back-to-back.

Jurassic World opened to 231.8M then the following weekend Inside Out opened to 100.4M

 

(adjusted for inflation.)

 

 

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I'm wondering how big it will open after Incredibles 2 is poised to open in the 140 million range. Would be the first time since May 2007 that a month has two 100 openers in the same month, let alone back-to-back.

 

It all comes down to the demand. If people want to watch both movies, they will see both. The marketplace is certainly big enough for two giant blockbusters.

[Lothar]

People are underestimating JW2. Dinosaur movie is going high. Everyone loves Dino. 200+ OW for me.

[Andreas]

Going with $170M. Won't be big on Thursday, but GA will go crazy on Sat and Sun. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Lothar said:

People are underestimating JW2. Dinosaur movie is going high. Everyone loves Dino. 200+ OW for me.

 

Thats my dream.

[Krissykins]

Variety says the range is $140-150m. 

[Jessie]

Call me crazy but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this wound up making less than 100m OW. The trailer lacks the excitement of the first and if it doesn't deliver it's going to have 2 weeks of mixed WOM lurking. World cup or not, it seems silly having a 2 week wait with a film of this magnitude, especially with social media today.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Jessie said:

Call me crazy but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this wound up making less than 100m OW. The trailer lacks the excitement of the first and if it doesn't deliver it's going to have 2 weeks of mixed WOM lurking. World cup or not, it seems silly having a 2 week wait with a film of this magnitude, especially with social media today.

No way, and I'm saying that as someone who agrees the hype is lacking and the drop off on OW will be huge. But sub 100 is just absurd for a movie whose predecessor opened to 208m, especially when that was built around walk ups. 115m worst case scenario.

Edited May 31, 2018 by MovieMan89

[GraceRandolph]

3 minutes ago, Jessie said:

Call me crazy but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this wound up making less than 100m OW. The trailer lacks the excitement of the first and if it doesn't deliver it's going to have 2 weeks of mixed WOM lurking. World cup or not, it seems silly having a 2 week wait with a film of this magnitude, especially with social media today.

I agree completely

[Chewy]

12 minutes ago, Jessie said:

Call me crazy but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this wound up making less than 100m OW. The trailer lacks the excitement of the first and if it doesn't deliver it's going to have 2 weeks of mixed WOM lurking. World cup or not, it seems silly having a 2 week wait with a film of this magnitude, especially with social media today.

 

Jurassic World: A Star Wars Story??? 

[Alli]

The final trailer has half the likes of AntMan2. That one is sure generating excitement. But JW is more of a walk up movie. we'll see. Under 100M would be a disaster

Edited May 31, 2018 by Alli

[That One Girl]

26 minutes ago, Jessie said:

Call me crazy but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this wound up making less than 100m OW. The trailer lacks the excitement of the first and if it doesn't deliver it's going to have 2 weeks of mixed WOM lurking. World cup or not, it seems silly having a 2 week wait with a film of this magnitude, especially with social media today.

 

There is a 0% chance this happens.

[Brainbug]

34 minutes ago, Jessie said:

Call me crazy but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this wound up making less than 100m OW. The trailer lacks the excitement of the first and if it doesn't deliver it's going to have 2 weeks of mixed WOM lurking. World cup or not, it seems silly having a 2 week wait with a film of this magnitude, especially with social media today.

 

Youre crazy.

 

Honestly, i might be a JW stan, but i remain very realistic about this movies box office. Right now, without any official reviews, the lowest it can go imo is 130M OW. Anything under that is pretty much impossible. The first reactions from Spain are incredibly positive about the film and the matter of fact is, the people love them dinosaurs. This aint Solo: A Star Wars Story,

[WrathOfHan]

125M is the floor IMO. Tracking being at 140-150M (fuck Deadline’s expanded range to 130) is encouraging

[That One Girl]

btw @WrathOfHan pulled an Ethan and said “there’s no hype lol” in the telegram chat so make sure to @ him whenever the number goes higher over the course of the weekend thread