MARY POPPINS RETURNS | Disney | 12.19.18 | Rob Marshall directing | Emily Blunt, Lin Manuel Miranda

[Deja23]

If the audience score was dropping a few percentages after several hours or over he course of a few day, I’d probably consider it kinda accurate. But it’s dropped near 20% in a few hours on its opening day with only not many screenings yesterday. That’s what makes me discredit the audience score. RT stopped reviews for Black Panther prior to its opening for similar concerns. 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Deja23

[ThomasNicole]

Audience score up from 52% to 60%

 

Maybe it will keep climbing now people actually see the movie

Edited December 19, 2018 by ThomasNicole

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Daenys said:

https://deadline.com/2018/12/mary-poppins-returns-opening-box-office-1202522986/

 

 

 

So, since Disney isn't reporting the previews separately, they probably rolled them in.  Would $1M seem like a close guess for those early previews?  So, true Wed is $6-7M?

[That One Girl]

49M 5-day (low end early projection) means there is still a chance for under 250M.  Club ain't dead yet.  Still hanging on.

[Manny G]

15 minutes ago, Daenys said:

https://deadline.com/2018/12/mary-poppins-returns-opening-box-office-1202522986/

 

 

 

Could be better tbh. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

DC fans (Russian Bots) attacking Poppins RT score

[Barnack]

24 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

But those were flops? Audiences didn't love these movies, and their RT audience score isn't even bad. How can you tell they got hit?

22 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

I don’t have any sort of data to look at, but I’d check for a flood of 1/10s just prior to or at release.

 

Yup that also my tricks, 1/10 vote on IMDB and reading some of the users reviews on imdb/RT, delta with cinemascore/deltascore/multiplier, if the imdb/RT score goes up instead of down has more people see it is an other strong indication, regular movies see their audience score go down has the best target audience for it see it first.

 

That say it just tell if it was hit not:

26 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

how influential they can be in the long run. Sure, a few dozen trolls might give an early 1/10 but it soon becomes insignificant.

Like glass said.

 

 

[Porthos]

As much as I love to bash and discredit the audience score over at RT, I do want to point out there's only been 36 reviews actually posted since it flipped from "Want to See" to "Audience Review".

 

Doesn't take many troll/want-to-see-the-world-burn entries to cause the score to bounce around.  Also probably why it's already bounced back to 60 over there.

 

I mean, don't get me wrong.  Self-selecting samples should ALWAYS be looked at with healthy skepticism.  But a glance at the actual reviews over at RT hasn't shown the sign of a dedicated review bomb yet.

 

---

 

I also note the existence of a flag option over there, which I hadn't seen before.  Presumably it's to report a review that looks suspicious so RT might get rid of it.  Could be that some of the more obvious troll reviews are getting removed.  Maybe.  Possibly. Who knows.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Porthos

[AdamKendall]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

DC fans (Russian Bots) attacking Poppins RT score

Why is it always 'DC fans'?  I mean, do you think DC fans give a shit about The Last Jedi? 

[Ryan Reynolds]

9 minutes ago, AdamKendall said:

Why is it always 'DC fans'?  I mean, do you think DC fans give a shit about The Last Jedi? 

Only because Aquaman is opening this week, combined with down with Disney Facebook groups magnify the bot effort

[DAR]

51 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

And it’s just not Disney movies: First Man and Widows both got hit.

 

 

Well those were moon conspiracists

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

As much as I love to bash and discredit the audience score over at RT, I do want to point out there's only been 36 reviews actually posted since it flipped from "Want to See" to "Audience Review".

 

Doesn't take many troll/want-to-see-the-world-burn entries to cause the score to bounce around.  Also probably why it's already bounced back to 60 over there.

 

I mean, don't get me wrong.  Self-selecting samples should ALWAYS be looked at with healthy skepticism.  But a glance at the actual reviews over at RT hasn't shown the sign of a dedicated review bomb yet.

 

---

 

I also note the existence of a flag option over there, which I hadn't seen before.  Presumably it's to report a review that looks suspicious so RT might get rid of it.  Could be that some of the more obvious troll reviews are getting removed.  Maybe.  Possibly. Who knows.

Since there are many folks who don't leave an actual review when they are rating, I took a look at the Wayback Machine snapshot from yesterday when the Want to See score was still 93.  

 

There were 1587 "user ratings" at that point and 1718 "user ratings" as of the moment I am typing this post.  That give us 131 ratings.  For it to whipsaw all the way down into the low 50s before bouncing back up to 60 shows there probably was a mini-bomb of folks leaving poor reviews (without writing one in the actual review section), but not huge swell of people one way or another.

 

If I had to guess, I suspect it was a small cadre of folk trying to influence things, but not a dedicated and sustained hit piece.  

 

But it's just a guess, and I could very well be wrong.  I mean, it's really really REALLY hard (not to mention futile) to deduce much out of 131 'votes'.

[terrestrial]

14 minutes ago, AdamKendall said:

Why is it always 'DC fans'?  I mean, do you think DC fans give a shit about The Last Jedi? 

I think its a bit of a 'joke'/turn the tables. Maybe bcs recently a very few DC/specialised DC fans wrote a lot of posts that were rather badly worded about Disney/...

 

If there are a few who do it, I guess it is for the release time near situation and if really done, probably per rather young DC fans, not the general DC fan

I still think the majority of mostly-DC-fans (as in not into MCU,...) are level headed people.

I also think the fast majority of people who watch CBMs are watching not only DC or only Marvel

 

[AndyK]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Since there are many folks who don't leave an actual review when they are rating, I took a look at the Wayback Machine snapshot from yesterday when the Want to See score was still 93.  

 

There were 1587 "user ratings" at that point and 1718 "user ratings" as of the moment I am typing this post.  That give us 131 ratings.  For it to whipsaw all the way down into the low 50s before bouncing back up to 60 shows there probably was a mini-bomb of folks leaving poor reviews (without writing one in the actual review section), but not huge swell of people one way or another.

 

If I had to guess, I suspect it was a small cadre of folk trying to influence things, but not a dedicated and sustained hit piece.  

 

But it's just a guess, and I could very well be wrong.  I mean, it's really really REALLY hard (not to mention futile) to deduce much out of 131 'votes'.

Been a while since I registered at RT, but you do have to multi stage register so its not easy for bots to work the site.

 

and I thought you had to leave a review to give a rating.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, AndyK said:

and I thought you had to leave a review to give a rating.

There's only 64 actual reviews listed on the audience pages (including the Want to See portion) dating back to June 2017, so who knows where the rest is coming from.  I know it's connected to Flixster in some regard, but I don't know how it works on that end.

 

Really, this opaqueness between the number of "user ratings" and the actual number of reviews I can personally see on their audience review page is a major reason why I discount the RT audience score in the first place.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Porthos

[DMan7]

5 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Been a while since I registered at RT, but you do have to multi stage register so its not easy for bots to work the site.

 

and I thought you had to leave a review to give a rating.

I thought the RT comments sections are no more?

[terrestrial]

7 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

I thought the RT comments sections are no more?

not the comments section, there is an audience review section

[AJG]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

 

I don’t have any sort of data to look at, but I’d check for a flood of 1/10s just prior to or at release. I’d also look for people who just joined to post a review or rating. 

 

tbh, if these aggregators cared about this, they wouldn’t allow audience scores for the first week or so. 

 

I had lunch with a guy i used to work with that does analytic work (for and about social media "influencers") and he explained what was wrong with RT.

 

The "want to see" score is made up from written "want to see" comments, however you can still score it without commenting. All the "want to see" scores are what makes up the opening Audience Score. Theoretically you could influence the audience score months or years before a film is released.

 

It used to be that you would have to leave a written review and give a film 2-Stars. 2-Star reviews are what allegedly triggers the score to drop (this is why there are pages upon pages of 2-star reviews on Black Panther and Solo) but I'm guessing they got rid of the "written" requirement (and thus got rid of the pages of 2 Star reviews). RT would rather have the appearance of legitimacy rather than sort out the problem.

 

His guess is they're getting pressure to do something about it and they would 100% do something, but with RT's login and accounts so tied into Facebook they would need a full overhaul of the site and it's not yet worth it. (They could cut the “Want to see” feature but that reduces engagement with the site. They could wait until a certain amount of votes are cast for a film before displaying a score but some films may never actually reach the threshold of votes etc).

 

Also he suspects YouTube's trending page tried to display trends like Twitter, and is moving away towards being handpicked and corporate... so there's that.

Edited December 19, 2018 by AJG

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Really, this opaqueness between the number of "user ratings" and the actual number of reviews I can personally see on their audience review page is a major reason why I discount the RT audience score in the first place.

I want to expand on this a tiny bit before I take off for a while.

 

I think what irks me the most about the RT/Flixter audience score is that it's a lot like a black box. We can see the output, but I don't know all of the sources of input.  The actual audience reviews left over on RT are obviously one source of input, but it can not possibly be the only one.  The sheer lack of reviews posted on the RT page makes that clear.  

 

I seem to recall hearing of other ways the RT/Flixter score is added to, but I don't recall them at the moment. 

 

More to the point, I'm not entirely sure we know how RT/Flixter interprets everything that goes into the box and what it spits out.

 

It's the opaqueness that bugs me, mostly.  Like if I knew for certain that the vast majority of votes were just a glorified web-poll where one drops a score and moves on AND where most of the web-polling input was coming from, I could deal with it on its own terms.  Or at least have a better sense to how to gauge things.  Like, if I knew where these votes were coming from, I could check the sources and see if there was any funny business going on, or what sorts of groups were congregating there.

 

Say what one will about IMDB or reddit (and I'll say plenty), at least I can see which folks are screeching the loudest and which aren't.

 

But the RT Audience Score?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sums it up for me.  

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

I had lunch with a guy i used to work with that does analytic work (for and about social media "influencers") and he explained what was wrong with RT.

 

The "want to see" score is made up from written "want to see" comments, however you can still score it without commenting. All the "want to see" scores are what makes up the opening Audience Score. Theoretically you could influence the audience score months or years before a film is released.

 

It used to be that you would have to leave a written review and give a film 2-Stars. 2-Star reviews are what allegedly triggers the score to drop (this is why there are pages upon pages of 2-star reviews on Black Panther and Solo) but I'm guessing they got rid of the "written" requirement (and thus got rid of the pages of 2 Star reviews). RT would rather have the appearance of legitimacy rather than sort out the problem.

 

His guess is they're getting pressure to do something about it and they would 100% do something, but with RT's login and accounts so tied into Facebook they would need a full overhaul of the site and it's not yet worth it.

 

Also he suspects YouTube's trending page tried to display trends like Twitter, and is moving away towards being handpicked and corporate... so there's that.

This does help me quite a bit, so thanks. 👍

 

 

One thing is interesting though.  I remember when the TLJ controversy was raging that I, for some reason, checked out the Rotten Tomatoes page for ROTK.

 

It currently has over 34 million 'user ratings'.  Thirty-four.  Million.

 

I don't remember the number I saw in Dec 2017/Jan 2018 (and I'm not about to dig through my posting history to find out), but I do recall a super high number in the tens of millions.  Probably over 30 million, as that number stuck in my head.

 

Was it so if folks left a user rating WITHOUT leaving a review, it wouldn't affect the Audience Score?  And that has possibly changed?

 

Either way, the number of ratings on an RT page has been kinda whack for a while now.  Hence my whining about opaqueness.