MARY POPPINS RETURNS | Disney | 12.19.18 | Rob Marshall directing | Emily Blunt, Lin Manuel Miranda

[AndyK]

I need to see it so I can justify the 5 stars I gave it on RT.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

55 minutes ago, AndyK said:

I need to see it so I can justify the 5 stars I gave it on RT.

How much were you paid?

[terrestrial]

Do people even realise the saying ~

to conclude from themselves on others...?

Like how biased and worse they look like if posting so much about e.g. RT... bias pro in this case Disney (or....  it's not an anti-Disney phenomenon only)

[Johnny Tran]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

Do people even realise the saying ~

to conclude from themselves on others...?

Like how biased and worse they look like if posting so much about e.g. RT... bias pro in this case Disney (or....  it's not an anti-Disney phenomenon only)

Nah I'm kinda with @TombRaider on this.  Disney nostalgia usually goes a very long way.  No matter the quality one would expect a Mary Poppins sequel to have more support but the more troubling thing to me is how low the audience score has started out. 

[terrestrial]

12 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

Nah I'm kinda with @TombRaider on this.  Disney nostalgia usually goes a very long way.  No matter the quality one would expect a Mary Poppins sequel to have more support but the more troubling thing to me is how low the audience score has started out. 

I speak about such kind of posts.....

14 hours ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

How much were you paid?

 

but yours too can be understood in another way-

Plus: how low it started out.... after around 100 reactions?

Disney nostalgia... too a bit difficult maybe to judge, as the original movie is older than typical and....

 

Before starting to get concerned I'd wait at least for a week or so after its release, like the % down in its 2nd weekend per BO but also per audience reactions, as then the normal audience will be more present.

 

In my POV too strong a reaction after a too early a date, especially considering the time of year

 

Edited December 21, 2018 by terrestrial
bit not but

[SofNascimento]

Just watched it. Really surprised how much I liked the first half, the first two set pieces were beautiful. The second half however... Mary Poppins just kind of drifts away and she was the best thing about the movie up until that point. Although I would probably say that regardless. 

Anyway. Blunt's next film is Jungle Cruise which will not come out until 2020. What Tom Cruise and Doug Liman up to? Time for that sequel nobody asked for but which must make thing right. (talking about box office) 

[jedijake]

MPR won't get close to TGSM's legs. TGSM's legs were the result of building WOM. MPR was already well publicized and the great WOM came from reviews on social media a week or two before release. It already had its explosion of good WOM. That came and went and the dust has already settled from that blitz and left behind a trail of poor opening days. $23 million 3-day opening is hard if not impossible to recover from especially considering the peak of positive buzz came prior to official opening. Now it's more of a "meh" reaction from everyone else. Doesn't bode well after the holidays.

[Zakiyyah6]

46 minutes ago, jedijake said:

MPR won't get close to TGSM's legs. TGSM's legs were the result of building WOM. MPR was already well publicized and the great WOM came from reviews on social media a week or two before release. It already had its explosion of good WOM. That came and went and the dust has already settled from that blitz and left behind a trail of poor opening days. $23 million 3-day opening is hard if not impossible to recover from especially considering the peak of positive buzz came prior to official opening. Now it's more of a "meh" reaction from everyone else. Doesn't bode well after the holidays.

The comparison baffles me as well. Mary Poppins is not in same position. It had a massive marketing campaign. It was Disney's Star Wars replacement. It should have good legs, maybe even really good legs but The Greatest Showman had some of the best legs for a modern film. That idea that the same thing will happen a year later is far fetched. People put too much on MPR. 

[Plain Old Tele]

57 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

It was Disney's Star Wars replacement.

 

It was? I don’t really buy this. Yes, it was slotted as a December release but that feels appropriate for the franchise — I don’t think Disney expected anything remotely like a SW performance.

[Zakiyyah6]

7 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

It was? I don’t really buy this. Yes, it was slotted as a December release but that feels appropriate for the franchise — I don’t think Disney expected anything remotely like a SW performance.

I'm not literally saying that they expected 500-900mil. 

[AndyLL]

31 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

It was? I don’t really buy this. Yes, it was slotted as a December release but that feels appropriate for the franchise — I don’t think Disney expected anything remotely like a SW performance.

That certainly was the rumor of why they didn't move Solo... that they didn't want to cannibalize MPR.

 

Probably kept coming up because no one could think of any other reason not to move Solo. 

[Plain Old Tele]

6 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

That certainly was the rumor of why they didn't move Solo... that they didn't want to cannibalize MPR.

 

Probably kept coming up because no one could think of any other reason not to move Solo. 

 

I think we all might be overthinking this. Why move SOLO from a spot that traditionally served SW very well, while keeping MPR in a winter slot that felt perfect for it as well? There’s a whole ripple effect that comes into play if they moved SOLO... plus, of course, they might’ve figured it would be fine where it was. 

[Horner]

Yeah Solo simply ended up being the first Star Wars movie of the Disney era that landed on the calendar where originally intended.  December only happened in the first place for TFA because that was the compromise Iger made with Abrams when he tried to get it pushed out a full year.  The next two got shuffled as a result.  Disney had wanted it in the summer from the get.

Edited December 23, 2018 by Horner

[MrGlass2]

But December was the new tradition, highly successful and extremely lucrative. It doesn't really matter when the previous SW were released, 10 years ago or more.

 

It is even more baffling looking at this list:

1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$936,662,225	4,134	$247,966,675	4,134	12/18/15
2	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$620,181,382	4,232	$220,009,584	4,232	12/15/17
3	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$532,177,324	4,157	$155,081,681	4,157	12/16/16

9	Solo: A Star Wars Story	BV	$213,767,512	4,381	$84,420,489	4,381	5/25/18

 

Star Wars: Episode IX

BV

12/20/19

 

There really was no reason to break the streak, except to accommodate the blockbuster MPR. Disney probably expected a lot from it.

[Plain Old Tele]

But studios don’t look at schedules from the perspective of one movie or two or even a franchise. They look at it as one holistic thing. They might’ve felt a December release was MPR’s best chance, while SW had a long-proven track-record of dominating in late May. It’s not as simple as saying they felt MPR was “so important” they couldn’t move SOLO.

 

edit: I mean, it’s possible they DID think MPR would be a juggernaut. But it’s basically impossible to know unless someone inside spills the beans someday, and since we tend to create our own assumptions with this sort of thing (which harden into “fact” over time), it’s worth always reminding ourselves that we’re just guessing. We don’t know, and we won’t know. 

Edited December 23, 2018 by Telemachos

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, Horner said:

Yeah Solo simply ended up being the first Star Wars movie of the Disney era that landed on the calendar where originally intended.  December only happened in the first place for TFA because that was the compromise Iger made with Abrams when he tried to get it pushed out a full year.  The next two got shuffled as a result.  Disney had wanted it in the summer from the get.

I feel like Disney struck gold though with that date and Star Wars.  They worked perfectly together.

 

Solo still would have done poorly in another spot, given the way it was marketed.  However, I reckon Solo in December right now would have pulled around the 300m range DOM, maybe 500-650m WW.  Enough to be a major disappointment for SW, but not a total disaster at the BO.

 

Memorial Day is a fairly overrated spot imo.  You get a nasty second weekend drop, so there’s little chance to recover from a slow start.  And since “summer movies” start at the end of April now, you’re surrounded by competition.  You don’t even get to really take big advantage of Summer weekdays like a 4th of July release would.

 

Idk why Disney covets it so much.  Granted, the movies they’ve put there likely wouldn’t have been much bigger elsewhere, but I think that weekend hurts more than it helps.

Edited December 23, 2018 by PANDA

[cookie]

Remember that up until a few months ago MPR was supposed to come out on Christmas Day. I think if they had gigantic expectations from the get-go, they would've scheduled it to open a week or two earlier (which they ended up doing but way after the fact).

[Zakiyyah6]

32 minutes ago, PANDA said:

I feel like Disney struck gold though with that date and Star Wars.  They worked perfectly together.

 

Solo still would have done poorly in another spot, given the way it was marketed.  However, I reckon Solo in December right now would have pulled around the 300m range DOM, maybe 500-650m WW.  Enough to be a major disappointment for SW, but not a total disaster at the BO.

 

Memorial Day is a fairly overrated spot imo.  You get a nasty second weekend drop, so there’s little chance to recover from a slow start.  And since “summer movies” start at the end of April now, you’re surrounded by competition.  You don’t even get to really take big advantage of Summer weekdays like a 4th of July release would.

 

Idk why Disney covets it so much.  Granted, the movies they’ve put their likely wouldn’t have been much bigger elsewhere, but I think that weekend hurts more than it helps.

I don't see why the overseas audience would care about Solo more in December than in May. Don't think Solo was ever hitting 300mil overseas no matter when it was released.

[Barnack]

6 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

There really was no reason to break the streak, except to accommodate the blockbuster MPR. Disney probably expected a lot from it.

Except maybe wanting to try to keep that tradition special by just putting the main star wars in there. and augmenting audience clarity by a distinguished release pattern.

Edited December 23, 2018 by Barnack

[jedijake]

I'm now putting MPR at $170 million at the ABSOLUTE ceiling. Could be as low as $150 million (domestic).

 

Not sure if it will go down as a flop, disappointment, or just on par for musicals that have a narrow audience target range.

 

Couple that with the realistic possibility that Ralph 2 won't reach $200 million and Disney has had a rougher than usual 2nd half of the year as well as 2 "bombs" in the first half (Solo and Wrinkle).

 

Really makes you wonder about next year considering all the pre-mature hate for their non-Marvel movies next year

Edited December 23, 2018 by jedijake