The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's not doomsday so much as reality kicking in, IMO.

 

Detective Pikachu is not the first movie to have its appeal vastly overestimated and it won't be close to the last either.

I guess part of the confusion was from the enormous trailer views of the first trailer. I do think those views show a decent level of curiosity/interest in the franchise, so had the marketing been better and the reviews been glowing, it could have broken out a decent bit more. So I don't think the appeal of the premise is the problem, more so issues specifically related to this movie (mediocre reviews/looks like meh WOM, marketing not breaking out other than trailer 1, Endgame breakout/crowded May)

[dakus]

8 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I'm seeing a lot more negative thoughts on Pika's box office potential today then through the rest of the week. 

Am I missing something? What's changed? 

 

Taking a quick  look at some theatres, it seems to be selling decently this evening for preview. 

I'd say it's still pointing towards a 50-60 million open. 

A Muted start from China and flopping in South Korea is a big part of the doomsday. I’m not crying bomb just yet, but naturally i’m lowering my expectations once again.

[YM!]

To be honest I think every thing else in May is going to underperform barring Wick 3 as it is the only true counter.

 • Dog’s Journey is already dead

 • Aladdin is looking real likely to underperform from it’s true potential even with Pikachu (ie around ~$240M-$260M)

 • Starting to legitimately wonder how G14 will effect KOTM

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

To be honest I think every thing else in May is going to underperform barring Wick 3 as it is the only true counter.

 • Dog’s Journey is already dead

 • Aladdin is looking real likely to underperform from it’s true potential even with Pikachu (ie around ~$240M-$260M)

 • Starting to legitimately wonder how G14 will effect KOTM

KoTM is fine. At least with my expections of 60+

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

I guess part of the confusion was from the enormous trailer views of the first trailer. I do think those views show a decent level of curiosity/interest in the franchise, so had the marketing been better and the reviews been glowing, it could have broken out a decent bit more. So I don't think the appeal of the premise is the problem, more so issues specifically related to this movie (mediocre reviews/looks like meh WOM, marketing not breaking out other than trailer 1, Endgame breakout/crowded May)

Yeah I think the trailer views really threw people off. Youtube views is actually a fairly solid predictor. On top of that the high views actually made sense (rather than being an out of nowhere anomaly), given the enormity of the brand. It just seemed logical that this would be a smash. Now when I say smash, I don't mean I was as high as some here but I took this for a $700M+ franchise starter for sure.

 

That being said, let's let the OW finish first.

Edited May 9, 2019 by JB33

[DAJK]

From BOM

 

• Avengers: Endgame (4,662 theaters) - $73.0 M
• Pokemon Detective Pikachu (4,202 theaters) - $60.0 M
• The Hustle (3,007 theaters) - $12.0 M
• Poms (2,750 theaters) - $8.5 M
• Tolkien (1,495 theaters) - $6.0 M
• Uglydolls (3,652 theaters) - $5.5 M
• Long Shot (3,232 theaters) - $5.5 M
• The Intruder (2,222 theaters) - $5.3 M
• Breakthrough (1,902 theaters) - $2.3 M
• Captain Marvel (1,504 theaters) - $2.3 M

[JB33]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

From BOM

 

• Avengers: Endgame (4,662 theaters) - $73.0 M
• Pokemon Detective Pikachu (4,202 theaters) - $60.0 M
• The Hustle (3,007 theaters) - $12.0 M
• Poms (2,750 theaters) - $8.5 M
• Tolkien (1,495 theaters) - $6.0 M
• Uglydolls (3,652 theaters) - $5.5 M
• Long Shot (3,232 theaters) - $5.5 M
• The Intruder (2,222 theaters) - $5.3 M
• Breakthrough (1,902 theaters) - $2.3 M
• Captain Marvel (1,504 theaters) - $2.3 M

Please be right, BOM! I don't see it though, given this week's Tuesday-Thursday (likely to be around $8M even).

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

To be honest I think every thing else in May is going to underperform barring Wick 3 as it is the only true counter.

 • Dog’s Journey is already dead

 • Aladdin is looking real likely to underperform from it’s true potential even with Pikachu (ie around ~$240M-$260M)

 • Starting to legitimately wonder how G14 will effect KOTM

If the reviews end up really solid I think Rocketman could surprise. Tracking is already $20-25M and tracking for films strictly targeting adults can be difficult sometimes (Bohemian Rhapsody began in the $30M range and ended up going over $50M, for instance). I've been on board the train for it being a breakout of sorts for a while now honestly.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

From BOM

 

• Avengers: Endgame (4,662 theaters) - $73.0 M
• Pokemon Detective Pikachu (4,202 theaters) - $60.0 M
• The Hustle (3,007 theaters) - $12.0 M
• Poms (2,750 theaters) - $8.5 M
• Tolkien (1,495 theaters) - $6.0 M
• Uglydolls (3,652 theaters) - $5.5 M
• Long Shot (3,232 theaters) - $5.5 M
• The Intruder (2,222 theaters) - $5.3 M
• Breakthrough (1,902 theaters) - $2.3 M
• Captain Marvel (1,504 theaters) - $2.3 M

I like the optimism...they are obviously predicting that The Hustle, Poms, and Long Shot will NOT be the big beneficiaries of the Mother's Day Sunday crowds, b/c either you get those crowds or you don't:)...and at those numbers, seems like a don't...

Edited May 9, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[MrPink]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If the reviews end up really solid I think Rocketman could surprise. Tracking is already $20-25M and tracking for films strictly targeting adults can be difficult sometimes (Bohemian Rhapsody began in the $30M range and ended up going over $50M, for instance). I've been on board the train for it being a breakout of sorts for a while now honestly.

 

Christ, end me now

[cdsacken]

14 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

To be honest I think every thing else in May is going to underperform barring Wick 3 as it is the only true counter.

 • Dog’s Journey is already dead

 • Aladdin is looking real likely to underperform from it’s true potential even with Pikachu (ie around ~$240M-$260M)

 • Starting to legitimately wonder how G14 will effect KOTM

Aladdin is making me saddin....yikes that was bad.

[filmlover]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

Christ, end me now

Well, it can only be better than BoRap, so there's a consolation prize.

[Jonwo]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If the reviews end up really solid I think Rocketman could surprise. Tracking is already $20-25M and tracking for films strictly targeting adults can be difficult sometimes (Bohemian Rhapsody began in the $30M range and ended up going over $50M, for instance). I've been on board the train for it being a breakout of sorts for a while now honestly.

$30-40m would be great for Rocketman, the budget is only $40m so it doesn't need a huge gross, half of what BR did would be a huge hit for it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Please be right, BOM! I don't see it though, given this week's Tuesday-Thursday (likely to be around $8M even).

The only way I could see this is that rule that some on here said that 3 hour movies tend to have weaker weekdays and stronger weekend bumps. Hopefully that would come into play, though I'm not gonna bet on it. I was thinking $80 million a couple days ago but now more like BP's third weekend

[Tinalera]

30 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Jesus, the reviews for The Hustle and Poms are scathing. Not really surprised by the latter (the trailer I got at Long Shot was very cringe), but The Hustle being this bad is a bit surprising.

Thats interesting, London ontario cineplex ADDED 2 showings of The Hustle on Sat for 6 showings up from 4.  Surprised me a bit going by the general poor stuff im reading

 

Edit: right mothers day weekend. That explains a bit

Edited May 9, 2019 by Tinalera
Added info

[Mulder]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

KoTM-693

KoTM-703

[Rorschach]

Detective Pikachu Thursday Night Showings - Davenport 53rd 18 and IMAX @ 5:45 CST

 

6:45 - 99/135

7:15 - 41/141

9:30 - 33/135

10:00 - 8/141

 

181/552 (32.79% of all seats sold)

[JB33]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

The only way I could see this is that rule that some on here said that 3 hour movies tend to have weaker weekdays and stronger weekend bumps. Hopefully that would come into play, though I'm not gonna bet on it. I was thinking $80 million a couple days ago but now more like BP's third weekend

BP's 3rd weekend is what I had as well. However, it could reach $73M if it goes like this (off $8M Thursday):

 

Friday: $18.8M (+135%)

Saturday: $31.0M (+65%)

Sunday: $23.6M (-24%, Mother's Day drop)

Total: $73.4M

 

That's a more "standard" Marvel weekend. It could do it if Pika does relatively disappoint, therefor not taking much business from Endgame. Otherwise, this is my actual prediction:

 

Friday: $17.6M (+120%)

Saturday: $28.2M (+60%)

Sunday: $20.3M (-28%)

Total: $66.1M

[WrathOfHan]

19 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Christ, end me now

REGGIE!

[Alli]