HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[pepsa]

2 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Saying it’s locked to do 2B means that under no circumstances will it miss that threshold. That’s no longer the case anymore.

But then you have a subjective discution about when you said it, if it did the worst case (obviously not), so many things are unpredictible and even the laws of gravity don't have a probability of 100%. So this is fully subjective and makes no sense to debate. 

 

I do agree with you guys that we don't know for sure that it will cross 2B at this point. But that is not what I was argueing.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Thrylos 7 said:

Whatever, 2 billion was locked for me from early on and I havent changed my stance one bit even after many people did and I have kept  saying it in the international thread. It’s not our fault that Disney keeps underestimating this both os and domestic and then the actuals come ever so slightly higher to ensure 2 billion. This started at 1.904 after the first weekend estimates and will end with 1.911 with the actuals and at the stage that it is these few extra million are a big deal.

 

 

in actuality it's kind of arbitrary if it makes $2b... suppose it helps with marketing for the next film

[m3racer123]

6 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

@IronJimbo only gets maths when it's told in Avatarian terms. 0.5A, 0.009A etc. Describe it that way.

While that's true, I actually agree with him on this! You can't go back in time and change the probability to suit the outcome.

 

Nothing is ever completely locked when it comes to box office, there's always a small chance of something going horribly wrong.

Edited May 29, 2018 by m3racer123

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

in actuality it's kind of arbitrary if it makes $2b... suppose it helps with marketing for the next film

Pressure is on, Avengers 4. 

 

Especially if this played like a part 1 (which it is). 

[Thrylos 7]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

in actuality it's kind of arbitrary if it makes $2b... suppose it helps with marketing for the next film

You are the one who is constantly bringing this up. For me 2 billion worldwide is way more important than 700 million in the u.s and for every film I am of the opinion that worldwide is what matters, which actually should work fine for your bias since it does make TFA seem much lesser than the Cameron mega hits,

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

In English chance and probability mean the same thing, perhaps this is the source of the confusion?

 

 

 

It might be, but in my native language  (Dutch) 'kans' and 'probabiliteit' often get confused by people because in main stream it is seen as the same whilst in Dutch it isn't when you see statistics at the universities. (statistical physics). But yeah my English isn't that good so I might be wrong.

If so, my sincere apologies.

[pepsa]

11 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

@IronJimbo only gets maths when it's told in Avatarian terms. 0.5A, 0.009A etc. Describe it that way.

 @IronJimbo I do have a question about this, when A2 does more than Avatar. What will be the norm then? Do you still take 0.5A as 0.5*Avatar or would it become 0.5*Avatar2. If so will IW drop under 0.5A and be unimpressive again, or was IW never impressive?

[Valonqar]

25 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

surprised me that it's only a week away. it's great that i'll never have to watch that trailer again.

[baumer]

6 hours ago, somebody85 said:

I'm not so sure about that. That is releasing the same week as Hereditary which is already getting strong reviews and should pull the horror crowd despite being more indie based. So there's already that against it. The monstrous Incredibles 2 releases the next week which a lot of families could be saving for and the giant Jurassic World the week after that.

As far as Oceans 8, the trailers have been underwhelming and have not generated a ton of hype. One has 11 million views and the other has almost 10 million. That's not breakout numbers.
 

If Oceans 8 does not get stellar reviews, I wouldn't be so confident to say it does anything huge but I understand it's potential to be something like The Heat. Everything has to go right though and I haven't seen a ton of marketing for it.

 

Maybe trailer views aren't always that important.  Sometimes you just have to go with your gut.  I've gotten a good vibe from O8 since the first trailer has come out.  It's got a lot of really popular actresses to get people interested in plus it's targeting a female fan base and it has a good release date.  I do't really think Hereditary is going to be much of a threat.  It's a horror film which I realize targets women for the audience but O8 has so much more going for it.  Sometimes you just have to ignore trailer views and other prerelease info and just look at a film and realize that there's going to be interest in it.  I personally took O8 as one of my surprises in the summer game and I still feel that way.  If it opens in the 40-50 range and gets good reviews, I believe it could get a nice multiplier of 3 or more.  

 

You can quote me on this, save this post and if I'm wrong so be it.  But O8 is going to be one of the break-outs of the summer.

[SpiritComix]

5 minutes ago, pepsa said:

 @IronJimbo I do have a question about this, when A2 does more than Avatar. What will be the norm then? Do you still take 0.5A as 0.5*Avatar or would it become 0.5*Avatar2. If so will IW drop under 0.5A and be unimpressive again, or was IW never impressive?

 

But that will not happen ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Avatree]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

Well tbf Chance is alway 1 or 0, so the it is or it isn't.

What you are describing i probability. If you say 2b is locked and it gets to 2B it is 1 not 0. 

With saying it's lock you say it will atleast get there, so once it reaches that number you were correct.

The term "locked" means it is guaranteed. As in 99% chance that it passes that goal by any reasonable measure. Infinity War was locked for 1B. 2B was absolutely not guaranteed...

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, pepsa said:

 @IronJimbo I do have a question about this, when A2 does more than Avatar. What will be the norm then? Do you still take 0.5A as 0.5*Avatar or would it become 0.5*Avatar2. If so will IW drop under 0.5A and be unimpressive again, or was IW never impressive?

Firstly I have to say that making above >0.5A is a massive achievement that any film that passes the gargantuan milestone should be proud of.

 

After A2 is released 0.5A will still mean $1.39b dollars but 0.5A2 will mean around $2b dollars.

[Nova]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Maybe trailer views aren't always that important.  Sometimes you just have to go with your gut.  I've gotten a good vibe from O8 since the first trailer has come out.  It's got a lot of really popular actresses to get people interested in plus it's targeting a female fan base and it has a good release date.  I do't really think Hereditary is going to be much of a threat.  It's a horror film which I realize targets women for the audience but O8 has so much more going for it.  Sometimes you just have to ignore trailer views and other prerelease info and just look at a film and realize that there's going to be interest in it.  I personally took O8 as one of my surprises in the summer game and I still feel that way.  If it opens in the 40-50 range and gets good reviews, I believe it could get a nice multiplier of 3 or more.  

 

You can quote me on this, save this post and if I'm wrong so be it.  But O8 is going to be one of the break-outs of the summer.

Even if trailer views aren't the end all be all it still has over 20 million trailer views. The Ocean's franchise is decent but were people expecting a ton of trailer views for it lol 

 

Also the fact that the newest trailer was able to retain a similar amount of viewers from the first tells me that the interest never died down from the first trailer which is always a good thing. 

 

Im with you Baumer. Ocean's 8 is gonna be a surprise 

[baumer]

7 hours ago, Fake said:

I would have agreed with you if there was even one 50M+ opener next weekend. But it is completely empty. All movies should be seeing good drops.

 

But, assuming 54-55% drop, next weekend should be 20M and week 30M. Take another 50% weekly drop next weekend, and DP2 will be at 275M when Incredibles opens.

 

285M is the low end I am seeing right now.

 

I believe it will get to 300.  It will see what looks to be an ugly drop this coming weekend because that's what films do on the weekend after MD.  But it will recover in the coming weeks and have enough to get to 300.  And if it does, it will represent about a 20% drop from the first.  And it looks like (according to imdb) it still has HK and Japan to open in so it could still push for 700.  I know it has a very slim shot of getting there, but it should clear 650.  So that would be a 15% drop from the first one.  Those would be fantastic numbers. 

[WrathOfHan]

I’m sticking with 33M for O8 rn. I don’t see any reason for it to come close to 40M when buzz is pretty muted.

[IronJimbo]

16 minutes ago, pepsa said:

It might be, but in my native language  (Dutch) 'kans' and 'probabiliteit' often get confused by people because in main stream it is seen as the same whilst in Dutch it isn't when you see statistics at the universities. (statistical physics). But yeah my English isn't that good so I might be wrong.

If so, my sincere apologies.

It's taught here in school that Probability is the chance of something happening.

 

Common English phrase would be "What's the chance of it raining today?", they want to know the probability of it raining.. a common answer would be "high chance"

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, Ranger Tree said:

The term "locked" means it is guaranteed. As in 99% chance that it passes that goal by any reasonable measure. Infinity War was locked for 1B. 2B was absolutely not guaranteed...

Well if you define it like that, I have no problem to say it was not locked. But I do think after it's 3rd weekend it was very likely that it would cross 2B, it had some prety bad drops since then. (Specialy OS) but yeah atm it still in the air.

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I believe it will get to 300.  It will see what looks to be an ugly drop this coming weekend because that's what films do on the weekend after MD.  But it will recover in the coming weeks and have enough to get to 300.  And if it does, it will represent about a 20% drop from the first.  And it looks like (according to imdb) it still has HK and Japan to open in so it could still push for 700.  I know it has a very slim shot of getting there, but it should clear 650.  So that would be a 15% drop from the first one.  Those would be fantastic numbers. 

That Monday drop though 

[FantasticBeasts]

Speaking of probabilities and possibilities...

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

Even if trailer views aren't the end all be all it still has over 20 million trailer views. The Ocean's franchise is decent but were people expecting a ton of trailer views for it lol 

 

Also the fact that the newest trailer was able to retain a similar amount of viewers from the first tells me that the interest never died down from the first trailer which is always a good thing. 

 

Im with you Baumer. Ocean's 8 is gonna be a surprise 

 

I mean, it's Sandra Bullock in a tent-pole.  She's been gone for three years, but look at her last few films that were major studio films.  I'm not going to include the abhorrent Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close because it was just plain awful.

 

Minions (voice only but she was prominent in the marketing): 336

Gravity:  274

The Heat:  159

The Blindside:  255

All About Steve:  33 (horrible movie and she even showed up to accept her Razzie)

The Proposal:  164

 

What do all of her successes have in common?  Easy.  Great films first of all and second she has terrific co-stars.  Ocean's 8 should be a fine movie, I'm assuming anyway.  And she has Cate Blanchett and Anne Hathaway to share the spotlight with.

 

O8 is going to be huge.  No doubt in my mind.