Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[TMP]

Between Pikachu and Godzilla 2 looking like under-performers, WB's really gonna need a strong back-end. Joker and IT 2 should do great, but everything else looks pretty small.

[AJG]

Just now, Porthos said:

Just addressed this.  Hell, I addressed it in my post.

 

But just because something has little value doesn't mean it has no value. If anything, I was curious to see if it was going to get review bombed.  So far, it hasn't.

 

That more than anything is what I was commenting on.

 

It has no value. None. 

 

We should’ve abandoned ship when we all figured out you could rate movies months before they’re released.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Between Pikachu and Godzilla 2 looking like under-performers,

both produced by legendary. WB is no loser!

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

Between Pikachu and Godzilla 2 looking like under-performers, WB's really gonna need a strong back-end. Joker and IT 2 should do great, but everything else looks pretty small.

My guy you know I like you but at this point it's literally concern trolling. Enough.

[Brinatico]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

Between Pikachu and Godzilla 2 looking like under-performers, WB's really gonna need a strong back-end. Joker and IT 2 should do great, but everything else looks pretty small.

Where do you get the facts DP and GZ are under-performing. 

The first one is doing great on the states and well on China and the other don't even is showing yet.

[nevermore]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

i trust imdb audience score more than RT.   since the changes on RT, the sample is really low

The sample is the same, they just no longer include the 'want to see' numbers. which simply inflated the amount of reviews, but didn't affect the percentage.

[ScoobyDoo21]

8 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Google’s percentage is also quite good.

 

IMDb remains king though.

 

Metacritic is a waste of time. If it wasn’t for gamers flat out decimating their ratings system that site would be far bigger.

A game isn't perfect at launch? 0.0

 

Game has its characters to be redesigned to be more than anime titties on a stick? 0.0

 

Game has a few questionable prices on clothes? 0.0

 

Metacritic user reviews are borderline useless.

Edited May 10, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[Alli]

4 minutes ago, nevermore said:

The sample is the same, they just no longer include the 'want to see' numbers. which simply inflated the amount of reviews, but didn't affect the percentage.

i see.

 

now we don't have "want to see " anymore. sucks. it was useful.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Alli

[Alli]

imdb should introduce a "want to see" option

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

The most I can see 4 endgame this weekend is around 63 million.

That's fair I'm at 67 and feeling pessimistic

[Cap]

25 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Endgame to become WW champion 4 weeks in a row?

John Wick's Gonna lay a beatdown on Thanos.  It's inevitable. 

[AJG]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

i see.

 

now we don't have "want to see " anymore. sucks. it was useful.

 

The final “Want to see” scores were the starting point for the final audience score, if a movie had a 67% ‘Want to see’ score then the movie would start at a 67% audience score when it was finally released. It meant users could review films months-years before release.

 

RT are also trying to remove bot reviews (which were super easy to do on the site). You can still see bot reviews for Star Wars Episode 8 in the audience review section for Shape of Water and other movies that were released around the same time.

[Wrath]

55 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Hey, we have traditions here at BOT. This is one of them.

The funny thing about those Deadline numbers?

 

Starting a little before the Derby got back up and running again, I did a weekly thread here in which I asked people to predict how the openers would do and I'd also include all the predicts from the Weekend Predict thread. On average there were probably ~15 people predicting each week (ranging from like 5 to 50). Did it for a couple years, and learned some interesting things.

 

First, none of us were as good individually as we all were on average. I also tracked the mean and median results from our collective predicts, and the median (which did slightly better than the mean) was a more accurate prediction than *anyone* on the site who predicted a decent number of movies (I think I think I set the cut-off at 50, which was like 10-15% of the possible predictions). The only one who gave the median a run for its money was TalismanRing and s/he just barely made it over the minimum cut-off.

 

Second, as much as we like to bash the big sites, they're all genuinely good at this. I also tracked Variety, Deadline, BO.com, and a few other places (which kinda came and went over time) each week using the last predict they made by Thursday night. The little sites were really hit and miss. Most were pretty awful, while one (who's name escapes me but it stopped doing public predicts after about a year) was surprisingly great.

 

And Variety and Deadline were surprisingly strong, consistently beating our median prediction. Not on every single one, obviously, but often enough that there was a clear (if small) gap. But the obvious winner was BO.com. Absolute gold-standard and a step ahead of *everyone* else except that one site who's name escapes me. They were basically neck and neck.

 

Anyway, the point is, for all of their inability to extrapolate and do math, Variety and Deadline are consistently pretty good at estimating OWs.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Wrath

[baumer]

22 minutes ago, TMP said:

Between Pikachu and Godzilla 2 looking like under-performers, WB's really gonna need a strong back-end. Joker and IT 2 should do great, but everything else looks pretty small.

 

Pikachu is not going to be an underperformer. It's going to do amazing business for a video game movie. only reason why it will underperform is because some of you guys had outlandish and ridiculous ideas for what it could do.

[John Marston]

Why would you make a Pokemon movie and not get Michael Bay to direct? 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Why would you make a Pokemon movie and not get Michael Bay to direct? 

And with this post we've hit worst BOT weekend thread in a while.

[Sue Denim]

Doing a little reconnaissance at my local theater for the remaining shows for the evening:

 

DP    7 showtimes     382 Tickets sold

A:EG  10 showtimes  437 Tickets sold

 

I expect both movies will be walk-up heavy tonight.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I agree, it should fight for September/October imho. It’s a better spot than May. I was just saying in the case WB is stubborn and being completely incompetent at family films, they could move it up a week, but I agree that May isn’t good for it. 

 

As for Spongebob, it was one of the few animated films to fail to reach 3x multiple and the fact that it’s all CG means there’s not much of a hook the last one had as well as being a prequel.

There really is no better place for Scoob than Fall. Preferably in September, so it doesn't go too soon into post-Halloween, especially since November seems like a crowded month for family films atm.

 

SpongeBob 2 opened to 55 in March and was a sequel with a built-in fanbase. It not reaching 3x doesn't negate that it was pretty huge, all things considered. Probably a lot bigger than anyone anticipated it to be. And the 3rd one does have a hook: it's the character's origin story and how he met his friends. It will probably be frontloaded, but that is a massive hook for fans of the series and even non-fans who have simply heard of SpongeBob before. I wouldn't be shocked if it stays flat from the 1st movie.

 

@John Marston Because that is the worst idea ever and even Michael Bay himself knows that. He should never touch another non-Bad Boys property after what he did with the Transformers sequels.

Edited May 10, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[CaptainJackSparrow]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Why would you make a Pokemon movie and not get Michael Bay to direct? 

I would pay to see that for sure. 

[Mr Impossible]

30 minutes ago, TMP said:

Between Pikachu and Godzilla 2 looking like under-performers, WB's really gonna need a strong back-end. Joker and IT 2 should do great, but everything else looks pretty small.

Wait at least Sunday to wait before you write off Pikachu and 3 weeks for Godzilla... Movies don't need to be Avengers sized hits to be successful...

Edited May 10, 2019 by Mr Impossible