SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

[FilmBuff]

Got back from Soiderman FFH. Mysterio saved the movie for me. Very very mixed on it, leaning towards positive.

 

 

 No spoilers of course, but I felt like they played too safe with the movie, and didn’t take enough chances. After Endgame, they needed to take more risks. Not as good as Homecoming. It’s definitely in the bottom half of MCU movies for me.

[Zakiyyah6]

Well I'm going to be interested in seeing the actual estimates tomorrow.

[RealLyre]

deadline were saying 26.5M friday 7 hours ago but Charlie is confident with 31M+ today. I think 180M-190M 6-day is still alive if Charlie's estimates hold up 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

deadline were saying 26.5M friday 7 hours ago but Charlie is confident with 31M+ today. I think 180M-190M 6-day is still alive if Charlie's estimates hold up 

I hope so too. That would be awesome. But Charlie seems emotionally attached to Spidey. I hope his methodology is correct. He is spot on more often than not. We will see. Normally, wouldn’t trust Deadline over either of our Asgardians,  but they have been spot on with their predictions for FFH thus far. 31-32 million bodes very well for a super fantastic 180-190 6 day.

[Devil]

@Charlie Jatinder For all of us who have money riding on this weekend, I have a request: Can you post the full top 14 movies when you give your Friday night numbers? Thanks!

[druv10]

AEG $1mn Approx, depending on night shows.

 

TS4 10.75-11.25

Aladdin 2.6

 

Per Charlie from the FFH. Fantastic for all 3!!!!

[RealLyre]

since when do people bet real money on box office numbers 

[kitik]

4 hours ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

 I’m talking about how this film is the 4th movie with Spider-Man in the past 15 months.

 

3 hours ago, Deja23 said:

I’ve loved both recent Spider-Man movies, but I agree with this point. Was talking to classmates today about seeing FFH and they were confused about there being another Spider-Man movie so soon after Into the Spider-Verse.

 

You both forgot to mention Venom too. Spidey may not have been in it, but that movie is 100% associated with Spider-Man.

[Ledmonkey96]

Hmm..... so with Aladdin only being about 140k behind Annabelle on Thursday what are the chances it manages to beat Annabelle for #4 this weekend?

[narniadis]

24 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

I hope so too. That would be awesome. But Charlie seems emotionally attached to Spidey. I hope his methodology is correct. He is spot on more often than not. We will see. Normally, wouldn’t trust Deadline over either of our Asgardians,  but they have been spot on with their predictions for FFH thus far. 31-32 million bodes very well for a super fantastic 180-190 6 day.

Emotionally attached has nothing to do with the data, his only off number was Tuesday which was due to not having another Tuesday opener to compare it with - and dealing with cheap Tuesday on top of the other things. Also the 31m would match what the theater watchers were seeing in their presales way more than deadlines "gotta have clicks" number. 

[narniadis]

As well as the increases look so far with the Disney trio and Spidey, I would hazard to caution that Saturday will probably be more along flat than anything else, especially if 2013 is anything to look at. 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Emotionally attached has nothing to do with the data, his only off number was Tuesday which was due to not having another Tuesday opener to compare it with - and dealing with cheap Tuesday on top of the other things. Also the 31m would match what the theater watchers were seeing in their presales way more than deadlines "gotta have clicks" number. 

Look, I am not into disparaging Charlie nor anyone else. We all know his value and what he contributes here. But I am pretty sure that he has stated that Spidey is his favorite MCU character. Moreover, he predicted well over 400 for the movie. It would be natural for him to root for it and interpret numbers in the best light possible for FFH. I am not going on the record to defend Deadline and their often laughable predictions. However, truth is truth. The movie has been out four days including today and they accurately predicted the first three days from the numbers extrapolated from early shows. Could they be wrong on the fourth day? Abso-freaking-lutely!

[PKMLover]

29 minutes ago, druv10 said:

AEG $1mn Approx, depending on night shows.

 

TS4 10.75-11.25

Aladdin 2.6

 

Per Charlie from the FFH. Fantastic for all 3!!!!

Aladdin leg is amazing, will it pass EG's OW $357M ?

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Look, I am not into disparaging Charlie nor anyone else. We all know his value and what he contributes here. But I am pretty sure that he has stated that Spidey is his favorite MCU character. Moreover, he predicted well over 400 for the movie. It would be natural for him to root for it and interpret numbers in the best light possible for FFH. I am not going on the record to defend Deadline and their often laughable predictions. However, truth is truth. The movie has been out four days including today and they accurately predicted the first three days from the numbers extrapolated from early shows. Could they be wrong on the fourth day? Abso-freaking-lutely!

Charlie also said he didn't care for the movie to an extent he wasn't excited about tracking it anymore.  He also ha correct numbers for Wed & Thur before Deadline.

 

Deadline's article taking about spiking at matinees - coming out before evening shows even started on the East Coast was iffy all on it's own.  It read like they were using 4th of July business as a comp when its notoriously matinee heavy.  Even the internal multi was off.  Their internal multis were also a bit off for the other films they projected.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Charlie also said he didn't care for the movie to an extent he wasn't excited about tracking it anymore.  He also ha correct numbers for Wed & Thur before Deadline.

 

Deadline's article taking about spiking at matinees - coming out before evening shows even started on the East Coast was iffy all on it's own.  It read like they were using 4th of July business as a comp when its notoriously matinee heavy.  Even the internal multi was off.  Their internal multis were also a bit off for the other films they projected.

I don’t know much about how numbers are extrapolated and how you all gather data. I just take a look at the bottom line, which is the prediction. If Deadline is wrong, then they are wrong. I am not here to defend them. In this instance, Friday would be the first day they got incorrectly. Perhaps, they are due. I am just in wait and see mode for the Friday number, since there is such a huge gap between Charlie and Deadline. No big deal... 

[narniadis]

6 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

I don’t know much about how numbers are extrapolated and how you all gather data. I just take a look at the bottom line, which is the prediction. If Deadline is wrong, then they are wrong. I am not here to defend them. In this instance, Friday would be the first day they got incorrectly. Perhaps, they are due. I am just in wait and see mode for the Friday number, since there is such a huge gap between Charlie and Deadline. No big deal... 

You first line explains why it sounds like you were being harsh like. Charlie attempts to give a working estimate earlier than any other source. Obviously in the many hours between his first Tuesday and the deadline one - in which it had become obvious that midnight show numbers were not being separated as the previews usually are - the end game changed. Charlie adjusted his numbers down once his mistake / skew in data was noticed. He also took the time to recalibrate for Wednesday and hasnt been off since. 

Deadline is notoriously bad because their goal is page click, not being right on the first go around. They managed to be right this time until they pulled the trigger once again for their early Friday headline. Charlies yay or nay for a film has not caused him to be off in high hopes or low in frustration - it was literally a computation error from too early in the day without accurate data. 

 

His current Friday is updated MANY hours after the deadline eyeroll and will be significantly more accurate than they were. 

[YM!]

Far From Home was pretty good, definitely an improvement over Homecoming due to Mysterio and delicious Spideychelle for the shipper In me. I have two major problems with it though. 

 

1.) Spiderverse

2.) SM2

3.) TASM

4.) SM1

5.) FFH

6.) SM3

7.) Venom

8.) Homecoming 

9.) TASM2

[Gokai Red]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

since when do people bet real money on box office numbers 

In the summer of 2013, when I worked at a movie theater, my coworker and I made a bet. Iron Man 3 vs Man of Steel, me for Iron Man, him on Man of Steel. Whichever movie grossed more was $20 for the winner, and an additional $20 for every $50m over. I won $60 from the bet ($20 for winning in general, an additional $40 since Iron Man made 118m more).

 

Homeboy gave me $60 in pennies. Needless to say, my bank was not ammused. 

[Cooper Legion]

14 minutes ago, Gokai Red said:

In the summer of 2013, when I worked at a movie theater, my coworker and I made a bet. Iron Man 3 vs Man of Steel, me for Iron Man, him on Man of Steel. Whichever movie grossed more was $20 for the winner, and an additional $20 for every $50m over. I won $60 from the bet ($20 for winning in general, an additional $40 since Iron Man made 118m more).

 

Homeboy gave me $60 in pennies. Needless to say, my bank was not ammused. 

Too bad your bet wasn’t for WW

[Ryan Reynolds]

still odd no CinemaScore for Spidey