MEMORIAL DAY 2021 WEEKEND THREAD | AQP2 19.3 Fri, Cruella 7.7 | SALE: $5 OFF FIRST MONTH OF GOLD

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Poor holdovers except that never go away Raya, 20% up from last week! 

Double features with Cruella.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

People need to stop with TENET trashing. Once again Deadline trashing TENET today. TENET released in way more tough period with Pandemic still raging and 2 biggest states literally closed. Canada which was in much better condition, TENET did equivalent of $150M, not to forget excellent numbers across Europe.

It's weird that an original movie like Tenet doing 360M last year are treated like a disaster but GxK being part of a famous franchise doing 430M in a way better scenario are treated like the salvation of theaters.

 

Both did great all things considered, that's a fact.

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It have 71M trailer views on first day, and it's trending on social media for more than 24 hours now so i'm sure it's not just because of some people making fun.

 

Maybe isn't that buzzy, but even the numbers on box office are showing that are a good audience for it.

It's not just "some people" making fun of it though. There seems to be a decent audience for it, but it wouldn't have opened as high as AQP2 (as Madhuvan said) even if it went theatrical exclsuive. 

Edited May 29, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

F9 is the next big movie opening over the next two months that won't have a home release the same day to go along with it, right? Imagine it must be feeling the pressure right now knowing that they won't be able to use the pandemic or streaming as an excuse in the event the results leave Universal underwhelmed.

 

A certain sequel rabbit is now crying into his carrot...and I only mention this b/c my youngest wants to see it...

 

His words "Mom, you let us watch the 1st one in the theater"...so now we have a deal - I'll pay 50% for the movie, but not a penny more, b/c my ticket better be the equivalent of free if I'm taking him:)...

[Maggie]

I gotta say Paramount finally made a good decision with the release for AQP2....moving it up from September 2021. It would have had so much competition in September.

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

F9 is the next big movie opening over the next two months that won't have a home release the same day to go along with it, right? Imagine it must be feeling the pressure right now knowing that they won't be able to use the pandemic or streaming as an excuse in the event the results leave Universal underwhelmed.

I have a feeling it'll be In the Heights. It's the best reviewed major release of the year so far and the marketing has been better than other June releases. I'm thinking $40 mil+. But of course, I'd like to see some pre-sales numbers first.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's not just "some people" making fun of it though. There seems to be a decent audience for it, but it wouldn't have opened as high as AQP2 (as Madhuvan said) even if it went theatrical exclsuive. 

Oh, i think Madhuvan said it would do 60M debut in pre pandemic, at least i understand that. Which is kinda reasonable.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

I have a feeling it'll be In the Heights. It's the best reviewed major release of the year so far and the marketing has been better than other June releases. I'm thinking $40 mil+. But of course, I'd like to see some pre-sales numbers first.

I'm thinking around $ 25M for In The Heights, but i think we can see a 5-6x multplier here despite HBO Max, seems like a huge crowdpleaser.

[grey ghost]

Any chance Disney will release their VOD numbers for Cruella during their next quarterly? 

[Borobudur]

Speaking about buzz, is it just me or really there is nobody talking about AQP2? 

 

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Projections are back

 

A Quiet Place:

May 28: 53.8M (24.7M weekdays, 78.5M Total)

Jun 4: 19.6M (11M weekdays, 109.1M Total)

Jun 11: 14.7M (10.1M weekdays, 133.9M Total)

Jun 18: 11M (4.9M weekdays, 149.8M Total)

Jun 25: 5.3M (2.9M weekdays, 158M Total)

Jul 2: 2.5M (1.3M weekdays, 161.8M Total)

Jul 9: 1M (600k weekdays, 163.4M Total)

Final Total: 168M (3.12x from 3 day/2.47x from 4 day)

 

I'm guessing The Conjuring + no holiday will cause at least a 55-60% drop next weekend, but it should stabilize well the following two weeks with minimal releases and Father's Day. Big theater losses will probably start around the Fourth of July and fully hit with Black Widow, but it should come fairly close to the first's gross with strong WOM.

 

Cruella:

May 28: 20.7M (10M weekdays, 30.7M Total)

Jun 4: 7.8M (4.3M weekdays, 42.8M Total)

Jun 11: 6.1M (5.2M weekdays, 54.1M Total)

Jun 18: 5.9M (3.1M weekdays, 63.1M Total)

Jun 25: 2.9M (1.4M weekdays, 67.4M Total)

Jul 2: 1.4M (500k weekdays, 69.3M Total)

Jul 9: 500k (200k weekdays, 70M Total)

Final Total: 73M (3.53x from 3 day/2.79x from 4 day)

 

I have no idea what to expect from Father's Day, but legs should be good until it starts losing theaters around F9/Fourth of July.

Any insight of how Saturday is doing at your theater? 

[wildphantom]

In the Heights has become my most anticipated movie of the summer, given all the superlatives being thrown around about it. 
 

This one is going to really play for weeks. If only WB would do the right thing and take it off HBO Max. Sigh. 

[LegendaryBen]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm thinking around $ 25M for In The Heights, but i think we can see a 5-6x multplier here despite HBO Max, seems like a huge crowdpleaser.

An A+ CinemaScore would not surprise me. In fact, I could even see it outgrossing Fast 9 domestically.

[Eric Duncan]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

F9 is the next big movie opening over the next two months that won't have a home release the same day to go along with it, right? Imagine it must be feeling the pressure right now knowing that they won't be able to use the pandemic or streaming as an excuse in the event the results leave Universal underwhelmed.

Don't know what capacities will be, but I feel like F9 might gross less than Quiet Place 2 domestically tbh. Feel like they haven't found a strong hook since the Han reveal and the mediocre reviews aren't really helping matters either.

[wildphantom]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Any chance Disney will release their VOD numbers for Cruella during their next quarterly? 

I wasn’t even aware we’ve ever even had a figure for any of their VOD movies? I know we had projections from ‘sources’ but nothing from Disney as far as I know? Which (unless I’m wrong) is telling. If they were great you’d think they’d be shouting from the rooftops. 

[filmlover]

Cruella likely would've opened in the $50-60M range over the 4-day in normal times if the Summer 2021 schedule had gone as planned and it had positioned itself as counterprogramming against bigger, more CGI-driven tentpoles like Matrix 4, Jurassic World 3, The Batman, etc. (all of which ended up delayed due to COVID-induced production setbacks) based on concept (Emma Stone as iconic Disney villain Cruella de Vil) + good reviews alone. It was never going to rival Disney's biggest live-action remakes, but between theatrical and PA I imagine it's gonna turn a nice profit for them, unlike previous Disney Memorial Day nonstarters like Prince of Persia, Tomorrowland, and Alice Through the Looking Glass (especially when the budget is certainly much lower than it was for any of those mega-bombs).

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Eric De Vil said:

Don't know what capacities will be, but I feel like F9 might gross less than Quiet Place 2 domestically tbh. Feel like they haven't found a strong hook since the Han reveal and the mediocre reviews aren't really helping matters either.

F9 is bad. Even if it gets a good opening, it will die on the Vine. I'm not going to be surprised if it ends below 120M domestic

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, wildphantom said:

I wasn’t even aware we’ve ever even had a figure for any of their VOD movies? I know we had projections from ‘sources’ but nothing from Disney as far as I know? Which (unless I’m wrong) is telling. If they were great you’d think they’d be shouting from the rooftops. 

They don't do it ever, even with free projects.

 

For example Disney reveal The Falcon series is their biggest debut ever, but never the audience like Netflix reveal. Same for free movies like Soul and the PA movies like Raya.

 

We know their series is a success because of Nielsen projected million minutes viewed. It seems like Raya did very well on PA because it consistently manage to be in Nielsen movie charts, but no official numbers.

 

I'm expecting the same for Cruella, BW and Jungle Cruise, it just seems like revealing numbers isn't their thing.

[TigerPaw]

7 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I wasn’t even aware we’ve ever even had a figure for any of their VOD movies? I know we had projections from ‘sources’ but nothing from Disney as far as I know? Which (unless I’m wrong) is telling. If they were great you’d think they’d be shouting from the rooftops. 

If it was that bad; they wouldn't have announced more simultaneous releases on D+ as well.

 

Do note that Disney's longer term goal is still streaming and D+.

 

We need to keep in mind that we all have our biases noting that this is a Box Office Forum; and BO numbers are much more transparent than streaming figures; but the Studio is not silly - if Cruella, Black Widow and Jungle Cruise does well on D+; doesnt matter what BO numbers we see, they might still push for such hybrid releases going forward.

[Chaz]

I think kids movies may have a harder time recovering as quickly as movies for adults. Most of them aren’t vaccinated so parents are probably still a bit skittish to take them out for now.  

[Porthos]

*sees the typical BOT Roller Coaster of Reactions of a Weekend Thread as good, then tepid, then good tracks/numbers come in*

 

Yep.  Nature is definitely healing Box office is well and truly on its way back. 👍