Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I don’t think we’ve seen much to suggest a delta impact on Saturdays? In July Saturday’s have all been impacted by one or more of:

July 4th

streaming

bad reception  

 

So it is admittedly a little hard to untangle.   
 

Cruella is a pretty clear comp and increased 15% on Sat from TFri — of course the one issue there is it was only partial summer, so I do expect less here, maybe 0-5%

You could be right. Plus there is rock factor. He is a draw for sure. Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

 

Anyway at MTC1 JC is at 132574/822461 1719238.30 4334 shows. MTC2 is tad below 119K tickets(after fixing dbox issue) at around $10 average ticket price. JC is holding slightly better at MTC1 than MTC2 when compared to SJ OD. I think its doing better than what I saw in the morning. I would say 9.5m true friday for now. 

[babz06]

1 hour ago, Last Man Standing said:

$6.5M-$8M is a big opening by A24's standards isn't it? Doing well considering the situation.

yea thats an acceptable number, not a flop. (imo) 

[wildphantom]

At this point I wouldn’t even like to guess where JC will end up by the end of its run. 
 

All I know is that in normal times, with just theatrical, this thing would have done very well and started a new franchise.  

[Yandereprime101189]

45 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Let’s circle back to this with Suicide Squad

 

And In the Heights was an utter failure despite the great reviews 

 

In the Heights is also on sale to purchase now via digital retailers starting today. Seems to be the norm for Warner. 30 days theater/HBO max then after a small handful of weeks (that has been shrinking with each title - Godzilla vs Kong and Mortal took two months to hit digital retailers while Conjuring 3 and In the Heights took a month - they stopped with the 19.99 48 hour rental bullshittery starting with Godzilla vs Kong)

 

So. . .that being said, I actually expect Suicide Squad to hit digital late September and Space Jam 2 late August. 

 

Sony's doing something similar - both The Unholy and Peter Rabbit 2 hit digital a little over a month after digital.

 

You think day and date is bad, wait till people release all they have to do is wait one extra month.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Yandereprime101189

[elcaballero]

I suppose it's not too much of a difference, but the 45-day window seemed like a decent compromise to me.

[CJohn]

For the sake of theaters, Jungle Cruise needs to hit 30M in theaters and fail on Disney+ this weekend.

[Chicago]

48 minutes ago, el sid said:

Next week ^^.

Oh we must get it a week early for some reason

[narniadis]

19 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

 

In the Heights is also on sale to purchase now via digital retailers starting today. Seems to be the norm for Warner. 30 days theater/HBO max then after a small handful of weeks (that has been shrinking with each title - Godzilla vs Kong and Mortal took two months to hit digital retailers while Conjuring 3 and In the Heights took a month - they stopped with the 19.99 48 hour rental bullshittery starting with Godzilla vs Kong)

 

So. . .that being said, I actually expect Suicide Squad to hit digital late September and Space Jam 2 late August. 

 

Sony's doing something similar - both The Unholy and Peter Rabbit 2 hit digital a little over a month after digital.

 

You think day and date is bad, wait till people release all they have to do is wait one extra month.

And BW is hitting VOD on the 10th? So at like only 6 weeks post release.... its nuts. 

[BK007]

Nah, the Green Knight may not have been sold as action heavy, but it was still sold like an epic medieval fantasy. 

 

Maybe that may not be true, but audiences don't have many points of reference. I wonder if I'll like it, but these bait and switch campaigns are only good for opening weekend, if that. 

 

Re: the window. They should really keep it at 45 days. 30 days, or basically a month, is enough for a person to say, they'll wait for streaming. 15 days doesn't seem like a lot of difference, but I think in the human mind it is.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Black Widow dropped 41% Fri-Sat. 
Cruella dropped 5.5%. 
Kong dropped 30%. 

Not saying 10% drop WILL happen but it wouldn’t be surprising if it did. 

Using FRI inflated with THU to SAT drop is pretty much useless IMO. 

 

Widow dropped 41% because FRI was inflated by $13M worth of THU. The pure FRI SAT drop was 10%, which July MCU movie usually have 0-5% growth but SAT jumps have been quite low recently clubbed with film being on Disney+ cutting repeat viewings and middling reception.

 

As for the other 2 comps, Cruella and Kong released during April-May when SAT jumps are higher than during June/July.

As for JC, True Friday seems like 9.5-10. SAT will be 9.5-10.5 probably. Whatever that means in OD-SAT drop.

[charlie Jatinder]

Looking back, TLK had 11% growth from True FRI to SAT while Christopher Robin grew 7% from FRI to SAT. 

 

Now Jungle Cruise dropping from FRI on SAT isn't really far fetched considering the factors I listed above for BW, but I am thinking SAT can stay flat atleast.

[AJG]

4 hours ago, AJG said:

How will Deadline Anthony spin the flops of theatrical exclusives Green Knight and Stillwater?

He’s not saying a thing about the collapse of Old.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

So, another mid 60% drop for last weekend opener.

 

This time Deadline didn't have any streaming to blame and have a meltdown

If you are talking about a movie like Old having a 60% drop, that would be in line with what a C+ cinemascore -52% audience score on RT Shyamalan release would have done, no ?

 

The Village: -68%

Lady in the water: -60%

The Happening -66%

After earth -61%

Devil: -46%

last airbender: -59%

The visit -55%

Split -36% (is well received affair)

Glass -53%

 

Is average the last 15 year's second weekend drop is like -56%

[Ethan Hunt]

Can not believe we're talking about Green Knight having misleading marketing on the weekend that Stillwater came out... because THAT movie is uhhhh a lot of things and many of them are definitely not what's on the tin

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Can not believe we're talking about Green Knight having misleading marketing on the weekend that Stillwater came out... because THAT movie is uhhhh a lot of things and many of them are definitely not what's on the tin

It’s because no one even cares about Stillwater

[Eric Duncan]

Tom McCarthy's career, especially post-Spotlight, is up there as one of the strangest, at least in terms of creatives working today

 

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0565336/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

It’s because no one even cares about Stillwater

It's good!

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

If you are talking about a movie like Old having a 60% drop, that would be in line with what a C+ cinemascore -52% audience score on RT Shyamalan release would have done, no ?

 

The Village: -68%

Lady in the water: -60%

The Happening -66%

After earth -61%

Devil: -46%

last airbender: -59%

The visit -55%

Split -36% (is well received affair)

Glass -53%

 

Is average the last 15 year's second weekend drop is like -56%

Yes, but i'm not getting into this.

 

I was only talking because Deadline is having a meltdown for weeks now because of consecultive 65-69% drops ignoring exactly that all the movies have average to bad reception from audiences, Old being another one.

 

But they are blaming only streaming for the drops, but Old didn't even have this excuse for them to use.

[Webslinger]

4 hours ago, Skipper Eric said:

Tom McCarthy's career, especially post-Spotlight, is up there as one of the strangest, at least in terms of creatives working today

 

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0565336/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0

I forgot that he had a couple episodes of 13 Reasons Why and that Disney+ movie. I'd totally thought of Stillwater as "the Spotlight follow-up" every time I got the trailer in front of something this month.

 

Honestly though, I think it's even weirder that McCarthy had a universally reviled Adam Sandler indie flick the same year he did Spotlight.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Webslinger

[AJG]

6 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

It's good!

Slap that on the poster.