NO TIME TO DIE WEEKEND THREAD | Bond 56M, Venom 32M

[RRA]

17 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I know this has become a deadhorse thing but I’m genuinely curious on how Ron Goes Wrong does box office wise. O/U Addams 2, on one hand it has theatrical exclusivity and likely much better reviews but on the other hand it has poor marketing and probably poor awareness compared to Addams.

 

I’m curious as it alongside Addams can be a good indicator on whether the families are back when predicting the much larger Encanto and Sing 2. 

Disney is certainly treating it like an obligatory release.

[wildphantom]

46 minutes ago, Maggie said:

It's just that  older adults (Bond's target audience) is staying home because of the virus

why would that be though when they haven’t in everywhere else it’s opened in the world? I believe this is the first big movie that the older audience are really wanting to come out for. 

All of the evidence we have from every other territory it’s opened in is that older audiences are showing up. 
 

I really don’t understand this absolute that older adults are staying home when the weekend has just started. 

 

Let’s wait and see what happens.  I don’t see any reason why just American older adults would stay at home due to the virus, when equivalent ages in other countries are showing up. 

[AJG]

Just now, RRA said:

Disney is certainly treating it like an obligatory release.

 

Yep. The studio behind Ron, Locksmith, one of those new nepotism funded studios like Laika and Annapurna, have already signed a new distribution deal with Warner.

[Inceptionzq]

Spectre is not a good comparison. 6 years ago, and 8PM previews start. I think a decent insight is how Fallout’s IM changed from Rogue Nation. 

Rogue Nation(2015): 4M previews/55.5M weekend. Almost 14 IM

 

Fallout(2018): 6M previews/61.2M weekend About 10 IM

 

Won’t be surprised with 9-10x for NTTD. Hopefully it can go closer to 11x though, but I’m not holding my breath.

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I know this has become a deadhorse thing but I’m genuinely curious on how Ron Goes Wrong does box office wise. O/U Addams 2, on one hand it has theatrical exclusivity and likely much better reviews but on the other hand it has poor marketing and probably poor awareness compared to Addams.

 

I’m curious as it alongside Addams can be a good indicator on whether the families are back when predicting the much larger Encanto and Sing 2. 

Discount Big Hero 6 Ron's Gone Wrong is another one of the last Fox titles that was obviously given the green light before the sale that Disney has no choice but to release due to pre-existing contracts. Not expecting much.

[RRA]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Discount Big Hero 6 Ron's Gone Wrong is another one of the last Fox titles that was obviously given the green light before the sale that Disney has no choice but to release due to pre-existing contracts. Not expecting much.

Honestly if not for the Fox/Max contractual reality, Disney would’ve dumped this on Plus or Hulu if they could’ve.

 

then again same Disney that wanted to do that with Free Guy (or at least a PA thing) but couldn’t because of said contracts. Knowing that with FG’s success still blows my mind.

[DAJK]

11 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Spectre is not a good comparison. 6 years ago, and 8PM previews start. I think a decent insight is how Fallout’s IM changed from Rogue Nation. 

Rogue Nation(2015): 4M previews/55.5M weekend. Almost 14 IM

 

Fallout(2018): 6M previews/61.2M weekend About 10 IM

 

Won’t be surprised with 9-10x for NTTD. Hopefully it can go closer to 11x though, but I’m not holding my breath.

Don’t forget that both MI5/MI6’s previews were during the summer, when Thursday’s and weekdays in general are much, much stronger.

 

I don’t think 10x is out of reach at all.

[Blankments]

in honor of the last Craig James Bond movie releasing, enjoy this super dumb edit I made five years ago

 

 

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

People only coming out to the theaters for superhero movies?m now? Not impossible 

It's tragic.

[filmlover]

Regardless of where No Time to Die ultimately lands, the fact there will be three $50M+ openers over the past six weeks and all of them are theatrical-exclusive is certainly a sign that movie theaters aren't going anywhere, even if there hasn't been much else of note to even things out (on the other hand, we also did welcome the first career-hurting "everyone point and laugh" disaster in quite a while in the form of Dear Evan Hansen so there's that).

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

FWIW re: Venom looking at an astronomical second weekend drop, it appears it has been forced out of all of the bigger auditoriums due to Bond arriving to claim them all so if anyone's looking at something to attribute to a potentially larger than expected decrease (in addition to the obvious frontloading) there it is.

Sony can blame themselves. Should have stuck with 24 Sep.

Edited October 8, 2021 by TigerPaw

[Inceptionzq]

18 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Don’t forget that both MI5/MI6’s previews were during the summer, when Thursday’s and weekdays in general are much, much stronger.

 

I don’t think 10x is out of reach at all.

Yeah, not really trying to straight up compare Mission Impossible to Bond, just the drop in IM. Spectre did a little over 13x, so I wouldn't be surprised by a comparable drop that Fallout had is what I'm saying

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

FWIW re: Venom looking at an astronomical second weekend drop, it appears it has been forced out of all of the bigger auditoriums due to Bond arriving to claim them all so if anyone's looking at something to attribute to a potentially larger than expected decrease (in addition to the obvious frontloading) there it is.

I mean even without considering that, the weekdays trend has been absolute shite.

[Cap]

For everyone saying that older folks aren’t going back to the movie theater, I just want to anecdotally say that my 60-year-old mother just called and said that she and my 90-year-old grandmother are going to watch James Bond In about 30 minutes. 

[Chrysaor]

Posted this in the tracking thread earlier today, but probably more appropriate here:

 

Call me overly optimistic, but I still think there's an incredibly strong chance that No Time to Die bests Spectre's opening weekend. Maybe even an outside chance that it bests Skyfall's. Yes, I know that traffic has dropped off a lot the past few days, but Bond has always been a franchise that's about legs than rather a big splash up front and that's true of the opening weekend grosses as well. For comparison, Spectre only did $6MM in previews on it's way to $70.4MM opening weekend. If the $5.25MM figure holds then sure, that means that previews are down (while preview grosses have continued to play a larger and larger role over the past 6 years), but it also means that an older audience skewing film will have grossed 80% of what it's predecessor did during the pandemic (according to NATO, the avg. ticket price is $916 for 2021 and was $8.42 in 2015, this works out to 573,144 vs. 712,589 tickets) that would be absolutely huge for the older demo. Does that mean that the opening weekend is going to be 80% of Spectre's? No, I don't think so at all.

 

Again, Bond's always been a leggy franchise even on OW, and we've seen some fantastic day to day holds in the opening weekends of recent tentpoles. I don't see any reason why this won't be just as true, perhaps even more so for Bond. If LTBC can have a 15% second day drop, I see no reason at all why NTTD can't too. LTBC benefited from, not just the overall trends of the marketplace in general right now (leggier weekends than usual) but also the fact that it was a much better received film than it's predecessor -- a fact that NTTD should absolutely benefit from as well. Now granted, word of mouth will definitely factor into this, but critics and audiences aren't usually as far apart on the Bond franchise as they sometimes are on other blockbusters and with a solid 90% RT audience score so far, I think it's set up to be in great shape. Will this have the kind of holds that Shang-Chi had? Probably not, but if any tentpole can put up similar ones it's probably Bond who has that baked into it's franchise history and is about un-reliant on preview showing as a major action franchise can be in 2021.

 

What's also absolutely key to remember in the NTTD vs. Spectre comp is that the latter was a huge anomaly in regards to how frontloaded it's opening weekend was -- not in terms of it's preview gross, but in terms of it's day to day -- it posted abysmal day to day holds at -52.2% SAT and -55.3% SUN. Compare that to Skyfall which had a higher SAT than true FRI (and if you want to go back that far, CR saw a FRI to SAT bump too, and even QoS only dropped 4%, although the latter posted a steep SAT to SUN drop). Spectre simply did not play like a Bond film opening weekend. And while I'm not sure that NTTD will go so far as to play like Shang-Chi over the three day, I think it will almost certainly play more like LTBC than Spectre. This is all to say that I think No Time to Die is in excellent shape to beat Spectre's opening weekend record. Even if it has a $27MM opening day, the holds should be enough to get it over Spectre's opening weekend, and if it tops Spectre's opening day then I think it has a shot (how good of a shot remains to be seen) of topping LTBC's (Skyfall did $88.3MM based on a $33.5 opening day and those kinds of holds would be much less of an anomaly now than usual). In any case, with this film, as with any Bond title it's all about the holds rather than making a big bang from the get-go.

 

 

UPDATE: Now that previews are in, this doesn't change anything for me except make me confident that Spectre's OW is in the dust and there's a chance that Skyfall and LTBC's are too. A guarantee? No. A chance? Absolutely. We'll see how things pan out today.

Edited October 8, 2021 by Chrysaor

[titanic2187]

It is MGM to distribute the film in NA right?? I heard this is their first in many years. Maybe they "forgot“ the know-how as distributor. 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, wildphantom said:

U.K. update. Screendaily.com, in its preview of this weekend, states NTTD is at £34.6 million through Thursday. 
 

Based on its huge weekday numbers it could definitely have £47- £50 million in reach by the end of this weekend. 

 

3 hours ago, wildphantom said:

£34.6 million I’m seeing @Krissykins

 

Where did you see the £37.3 million number? Or maybe screendaily’s figure didn’t include yesterday? 

£37.3m was from the film distributors association around 4 hours ago. RTH also gave £37m in the UK thread. 
 

 

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

FWIW re: Venom looking at an astronomical second weekend drop, it appears it has been forced out of all of the bigger auditoriums due to Bond arriving to claim them all so if anyone's looking at something to attribute to a potentially larger than expected decrease (in addition to the obvious frontloading) there it is.

Same happened to Candyman, without the huge drop. It’ll be more and more common in the future. 

[john2000]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Spectre is not a good comparison. 6 years ago, and 8PM previews start. I think a decent insight is how Fallout’s IM changed from Rogue Nation. 

Rogue Nation(2015): 4M previews/55.5M weekend. Almost 14 IM

 

Fallout(2018): 6M previews/61.2M weekend About 10 IM

 

Won’t be surprised with 9-10x for NTTD. Hopefully it can go closer to 11x though, but I’m not holding my breath.

it can hit 11 or so i think, sun drop will not be normal

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

it can hit 11 or so i think, sun drop will not be normal

 

11x Thur or 11 x (Thur + Wed) /  $58.53 v  $68.53m

 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

11x Thur or 11 x (Thur + Wed) /  $58.53 v  $68.53m

 

good question ,we will know tomorrow 😛