The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

75 OW is coming 

You joke, but I just talked about this.   @TalismanRing, IIRC, commented that AM&tW was a Marvel film that acted like a family film when it came to buying patterns.  That 1000 ticket sale period coming up on the final report helps point to that, IMO.

Edited March 7, 2019 by Porthos

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You joke, but I just talked about this.   @TalismanRing, IIRC, commented that AM&tW was a Marvel film that acted like a family film when it came to buying patterns.  That 1000 ticket sale period coming up on the final report helps point to that, IMO.

do you think that it it will be very frontloaded ?

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

do you think that it it will be very frontloaded ?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

No clue.

 

I've been looking at the Fandango 24 hour rolling tracker and noticed it isn't getting quite the bump that the more enthusiastic folks here might have hoped for.  Think it might be a little less the BP number that @CoolEric258 has on his spreadsheet.

 

That would be a very very good number, of course.

 

As for previews?  Sticking with my 22m plus or minus for now.  We'll see if I revise my thoughts when I get my final numbers.

[filmlover]

Captive State is back to a wide release with 2,200 theaters next weekend according to BOM. Not surprised since I've been getting a lot of ads recently but it'll probably be for naught. 

 

3,500 for Wonder Park and 2,600 for Five Feet Apart.

Edited March 7, 2019 by filmlover

[Rorschach]

Rave Cinemas 4:00 P.M. CST (Two hours before first showtime)

3D

7:30 - 39/85

10:30 - 4/85

 

IMAX 2D

7:00 - 254/387

10:00 - 45/387

 

2D (* = DBOX Showing)

7:15 - 74/94

*7:45 - 121/135

*8:00 - 54/78

8:15 - 53/94

8:30 - 91/141

8:45 - 20/85

9:00 - 22/56

9:15 - 64/238

9:30 - 11/85

9:45 - 6/67

10:15 - 11/94

*10:45 - 38/135

*11:00 - 1/78

11:15 - 4/94

 

Opening Night Fan Event

6:00 - 210/238

 

Total Seats Reserved: 1,122/2,418 (46.4%)

[Porthos]

CM is ticking upwards on the rolling 24 hour Fandango tracker.

 

62.99k

 

Flirting with the 65.45k final number for Thur for BP from @CoolEric258's spreadsheet.

[MrGlass2]

What's with the low-balling and some people still predicting $150M or even lower? CM is clearly exploding to 200+, as predicted (by the smartest box office watchers) but now confirmed.

[Alli]

so i haven't followed tracking lately. is it possible this opens under 140M?

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

so i haven't followed tracking lately. is it possible this opens under 140M?

at this point, unlikely 

 

$ 155 - 160M seems like a "safe" bet

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

CM is ticking upwards on the rolling 24 hour Fandango tracker.

 

62.99k

 

Flirting with the 65.45k final number for Thur for BP from @CoolEric258's spreadsheet.

Linear extrapolation from yesterday is 49,745*39341/28795=68k. Lower than early in the day, but not sure how it moves once showings actually begin.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

so i haven't followed tracking lately. is it possible this opens under 140M?

Anything is possible but it would have to be way more frontloaded than any of the other MCU films for that to happen

[ChipDerby]

2 hours ago, terrestrial said:

Exhibitor Relations Co.‏ @ERCboxoffice 5m5 minutes ago

More

Will CAPTAIN MARVEL arrive higher, go further and be faster than WONDER WOMAN? Diving into 4,310 venues, will Marvel's latest top $85M? $103M? $120M? $160M? Projections have run scattershot across the spectrum. What say you?

 

ERC is going to get a warning from BOT staff for saying people are projecting anywhere from $85-160 mil OW! No proof!

[DAJK]

Asgard in the Australia thread is saying CM is (I would say significantly) higher than BP in Aus

[JB33]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Asgard in the Australia thread is saying CM is (I would say significantly) higher than BP in Aus

Australia usually translates pretty well to the domestic market, right?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Asgard in the Australia thread is saying CM is (I would say significantly) higher than BP in Aus

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Australia usually translates pretty well to the domestic market, right?

Yes, it usually does.

 

However, don't forget that Black Panther's OS performance, while definitely much stronger than expected, should not be used as a perfect metric for Captain Marvel. BP is a film that had much, much greater meaning for DOM audiences than pretty much almost any other market combined (apart from maybe Africa).

[ChipDerby]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Australia usually translates pretty well to the domestic market, right?

 

Usually!

[HouseOfTheSun]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Australia usually translates pretty well to the domestic market, right?

Other than BP (which, while very good overseas, was an American behemoth)

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Asgard in the Australia thread is saying CM is (I would say significantly) higher than BP in Aus

25% higher than BP so far in AUS, would translate to some 10.5ish USD (can vary by a decent bit based on FSS). US OW is generally some 15-17x the AUS one, for maybe 157-178, but it’s not a hard and fast rule. BP was much stronger in the Us relative to AUS than usual. I posted a lot more detail in the AUS thread yesterday.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yes, it usually does.

 

However, don't forget that Black Panther's OS performance, while definitely much stronger than expected, should not be used as a perfect metric for Captain Marvel. BP is a film that had much, much greater meaning for DOM audiences than pretty much almost any other market combined (apart from maybe Africa).

True though even in Australia Black Panther performed better than any other MCU film except The Avengers and Infinity War and Iron Man 3 (in USD only). 

 

I'm starting to firmly believe Captain Marvel will easily exceed $600M OS but we shall see