The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sandro Mazzola]

5 hours ago, Free Eric said:

It's hard to find other good comps for this, but there's no way this will go as low as the Voyagers comp suggests...or will it????

You wouldn't happen to have tracking numbers for Replicas?

[Dominic Draper]

This is off topic and I apologize, I just wasnt sure where to post/who to ask. If anyone can direct me on where to go that would be awesome.

 

Is it possible to change my screen name? I picked this name years ago but I never posted and I don't really want it anymore but didn't want to make a new account.

[Old Crow]

1 hour ago, Dominic Draper said:

Is it possible to change my screen name? I picked this name years ago but I never posted and I don't really want it anymore but didn't want to make a new account.

I clicked on my screen name in upper left corner of web page then clicked Account Settings but, unfortunately, it doesn't give you the option to change screen name. You can change email and password but not screen name.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Dominic Draper said:

Is it possible to change my screen name? I picked this name years ago but I never posted and I don't really want it anymore but didn't want to make a new account

Name changing is paid service I believe.

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I checked there are 5 in Philly, 1 of @TalismanRing and 4 in Katniss's area. So we are tracking 21 (4%) out of 523. Please mention REGAL seat sold in your posts tomorrow for Shang Chi. Let's see if we can make some sense of it.

 

I've got 4 in Raleigh, and 2 in Jacksonville.  Just starting to pull numbers now.

[CJohn]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/venom-release-studios-blink-amid-delta-1234998912/ -> Link for more

Studios Begin to Blink on Theatrical Releases Amid Delta: “I Would Have Moved Everything”

As moviegoer comfort levels dive amid the spread of the COVID-19 variant, tentpoles like Sony’s 'Venom' sequel are once again on the move, but others (like MGM’s oft-delayed 'No Time to Die') may take the risk anyway.

 

 

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/venom-release-studios-blink-amid-delta-1234998912/ -> Link for more

Studios Begin to Blink on Theatrical Releases Amid Delta: “I Would Have Moved Everything”

As moviegoer comfort levels dive amid the spread of the COVID-19 variant, tentpoles like Sony’s 'Venom' sequel are once again on the move, but others (like MGM’s oft-delayed 'No Time to Die') may take the risk anyway.

 

 

if shang chi hit 60 mill ow or so then no , everything will be fine also their take for box office is a little out of place and the reason is here

 

 

 

 

 

 

in these 4 weeks many things changed and by a big margin yet the BO as you can see didnt.... and the dalies for holdovers are very normal so for now......

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Tickets on sale in Canada now.

Edited August 18, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[AdrianL]

One of the local Dolby theaters near me for 7pm for Candyman is nearly half full already... didn't tickets just go on sale? Hmm

Edited August 18, 2021 by AdrianL

[Borobudur]

24 minutes ago, CJohn said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/venom-release-studios-blink-amid-delta-1234998912/ -> Link for more

Studios Begin to Blink on Theatrical Releases Amid Delta: “I Would Have Moved Everything”

As moviegoer comfort levels dive amid the spread of the COVID-19 variant, tentpoles like Sony’s 'Venom' sequel are once again on the move, but others (like MGM’s oft-delayed 'No Time to Die') may take the risk anyway.

 

 

In the past few weeks, I didn't see much differenc

 

15 minutes ago, john2000 said:

if shang chi hit 60 mill ow or so then no , everything will be fine also their take for box office is a little out of place and the reason is here

 

 

 

 

 

 

in these 4 weeks many things changed and by a big margin yet the BO as you can see didnt.... and the dalies for holdovers are very normal so for now......

 

 

 

Yes, the number look pretty normal and stable to me. In fact, the impact of day-to-date model to box office is even more evident than delta. 

[WrathOfHan]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In tracking REGAL is a big variable we leave to chance. I was wondering that all the individual trackers must be tracking quite a many REGALs, so if we could somehow use that sample to estimate the chain.

 

@Porthos @Free Eric @katnisscinnaplex @WrathOfHan @Inceptionzq

 

How many REGALs you track.

I don't track any Regals. The Tallahassee Regal does not have reserved seating and is the lowest performing multiplex in the area by a wide margin (also one of the very last Regals to re-open). Central Florida isn't a big Regal market either; there's only two in the area, one of which has a heavy IMAX skew due to being one of the only real IMAXs in the state.

[DAJK]

37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Tickets on sale in Canada now.

Going to track very closely

[Tinalera]

16 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Have to laugh at Entertainment Weekly saying “marvel has another hit on its hands” just after they continuously put out negative headlines about the performance of Black Widow. Maybe this is doomed if it falls under $80.4m OW. 

Give it time for movies:

 

"Avengers Another Infinity War in the Multiverse" opens to a disappointing 700 million opening weekend, Box Office pundits are shocked. "We expected at least 800 opening weekend, I mean Infinity War did a billion, such a massive disappointment"

Edited August 18, 2021 by Tinalera

[Krissykins]

Candyman tickets on sale now in America.

 

Dying to see this film, finally! Hopefully UK tickets go on sale this week too. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Paw Patrol MTC2

 

Friday

Showtimes: 1901 (+543)

Seats Sold: 13770/236226 (+4349)

 

Data as of last night. Make of it what you will. 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

19 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-2	The Night House	Jacksonville	5	8	811	5	1	0.62%
		Phoenix	5	8	878	10	5	1.14%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,246	9	0	0.72%
	The Night House Total		16	28	2,935	24	6	0.82%
	The Protégé	Jacksonville	5	8	970	14	5	1.44%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,370	20	5	1.46%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,423	13	4	0.91%
	The Protégé Total		18	29	3,763	47	14	1.25%
T-3	Paw Patrol (Friday)	Jacksonville	3	16	1,793	99	13	5.52%
		Phoenix	6	17	2,698	106	49	3.93%
		Raleigh	3	18	1,581	216	98	13.66%
	Paw Patrol (Friday) Total		12	51	6,072	421	160	6.93%
	Reminiscence (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	18	2,646	12	4	0.45%
		Phoenix	6	17	2,528	10	2	0.40%
		Raleigh	7	28	3,728	15	7	0.40%
	Reminiscence (Friday) Total		18	63	8,902	37	13	0.42%

 

Apologies for the delay. On vacation this week and had to catch a ferry this morning.  I was able to pull all of these but decided to start looking at Shang Chi instead of posting in my last few minutes before leaving.  Paw Patrol had another good day, moving tracking back to 5.52m for OD (Space Jam 5.53 & Boss Baby 5.52).  Protégé is still trailing HWB previews 55-47 but pulled a little closer.  

 

While I didn't have time to finish Shang-Chi, I was able to pull all of the Raleigh shows.

 

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-16	Shang-Chi	Raleigh	7	26	3,317	175	175	5.28%

 

For T-16 Raleigh comps, F9 had sold 156, Black Widow had 690 and TSS had 93.  Black Widow had 222 in its first day, but that was T-27.  Tomorrow I'll be able to do comps for all three cities.

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	The Night House	Jacksonville	5	8	811	6	1	0.74%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,074	12	2	1.12%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,246	10	1	0.80%
	The Night House Total		17	29	3,131	28	4	0.89%
	The Protégé	Jacksonville	5	8	970	17	3	1.75%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,370	26	6	1.90%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,423	13	0	0.91%
	The Protégé Total		18	29	3,763	56	9	1.49%
T-15	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	5	36	5,621	153	153	2.72%
		Phoenix	6	26	4,663	202	202	4.33%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,314	225	50	6.79%
	Shang-Chi Total		18	88	13,598	580	405	4.27%
T-2	Paw Patrol (Friday)	Jacksonville	3	22	2,108	106	7	5.03%
		Phoenix	7	38	4,727	170	64	3.60%
		Raleigh	3	18	1,581	312	96	19.73%
	Paw Patrol (Friday) Total		13	78	8,416	588	167	6.99%
	Reminiscence (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	37	7,083	12	0	0.17%
		Phoenix	7	24	3,171	14	4	0.44%
		Raleigh	7	48	5,672	20	5	0.35%
	Reminiscence (Friday) Total		19	109	15,926	46	9	0.29%

 

Paw Patrol dropped from 5.52m to 5.28m, but still a solid day.  Tons of new showtimes for Reminiscence on Friday, but sales just aren't there for any of the other three openers.  The Protégé fell way behind HWB (97-56), and is now closer to the Zola range (54-56).  Reminiscence has sold 46 tickets, compared to the 47 that the Protégé had yesterday.  Awful for a full Friday OD. 

 

Shang-Chi comps

BW - .324x (4.28m)
F9 - 1.07x (7.61m)

TSS - 2.45x (10.03m)

 

These are all over the place; hopefully they'll converge as time goes on.

 

@charlie Jatinder Sales by chain on T-15:

 

 

Movie	AMC	Cinemark	Regal	Grand Total	AMC %	Cinemark %	Regal %
Black Widow	938	568	284	1790	52.40%	31.73%	15.87%
F9: The Fast Saga	361	119	59	539	66.98%	22.08%	10.95%
Shang-Chi	351	135	94	580	60.52%	23.28%	16.21%
Suicide Squad	141	65	31	237	59.49%	27.43%	13.08%

[katnisscinnaplex]

Didn't get a chance to post this yet, but here were the weekend sales by day for Jacksonville, as of yesterday morning with comps.  Don't have time to do predictions yet, but it's not looking good.  HWB opened on Wednesday (so Tues preview sales were 71), weekend sales are despite having Wed/Thu sales as well.

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total
The Night House	5	13	5	4	27
The Forever Purge	24	25	5	7	61
Escape Room 2	32	31	20	4	87
The Protégé	14	19	9	4	46
Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard	71*	26	22	23	71
Paw Patrol	0	99	106	27	232
Space Jam	0	340	150	68	558
The Boss Baby 2	58	45	15	6	124
Peter Rabbit 2	47	28	36	16	127
Reminiscence	0	12	1	9	22
Stillwater	13	14	23	9	59

[charlie Jatinder]

39 minutes ago, Menor said:

Paw Patrol MTC2

 

Friday

Showtimes: 1901 (+543)

Seats Sold: 13770/236226 (+4349)

 

Data as of last night. Make of it what you will. 

 

 

4.3K added on TUE. I suppose another 6K today and 15K+ on THU for 35K final PS, right where we had it few days back. As for PSm, still feel 3.5-4x, for 120-140K. Using $8.5 ATP, $1.05-1.2M in MTC 2. 

 

As for MTC 1, its not doing well at moment. Just 13K till yesterday, adding mere 3K on TUE. May be 4.5K today and 10K tomorrow for 20K final PS. 3.25x PSm for 65K final aka $650K. Adding non-coverage locs will take it to $775K. 

 

That make it feel like all MTC3 audience went to MTC2. Unless MTC1 improves, it will be mid $4M. 

[filmlover]

Weak reviews for Reminiscence, unsurprisingly. Think sub-$5M for the weekend is more likely than not now.

[el sid]

15 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Weekend trend in September with Sunday holiday is gonna be a lot different, so better practice will be to get THU and use 7.75-8.25x internal multi.

 

1.85x TSS will mean 7.6M previews. That's a bit low than it should be but let's see how that comp go.

Yes, I understand.
I guess that the factor will be higher when I count Shang-Chi the next time which will be on next Monday. Because then the conditions for both movies are equal. This time I compared days where TSS tickets were on sale since Tuesday or was it Wednesday (I was on vacation)? So it already had some days  and Shang-Chi only 24h.