THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[James]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Who gives a shit about this?

Me. That is why I post it, duh.

[Lordmandeep]

Regardless of the word of mouth, Saturday will see a 10-15% bump From Friday.

 

I do think Sunday Drop will be more around 20-22% though. 

 

 

[Noctis]

Yea, now THAT makes more sense.

 

Still...DH2 sold more tickets than TLJ for previews. I'm glad about that.

 

Anyway...will probably make $205m-$215m this weekend. I don't see it hitting $700m. 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, The Last Panda said:

Empire did not improve in numbers, Clones did not improve in numbers.

 

Mid-Trilogy drop should be expected.

 

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Lol.  You might want to check your numbers there.  

 

I meant opening weekend, sorry.

 

Looks like I’m right. 

[Maxmoser3]

Not horrible numbers. But word of mouth on RT is nothing to take to heart. Fans will flock to it easily this weekend and for the rest of the holiday box office. Even going into January, because minus maybe Insidious 4 and Proud Mary, January sucks. 

[TwoMisfits]

$45M - 3.75x-5x gives my own "personal thought" on possible OW of $168.75M (this seems way too low, but I can't discount it after seeing JL's #s - nothing is impossible even if I think it is) to $225M (which I think is probably too high, but again, not gonna discount).  I thought before this opened that this range would be the multiplier off OW previews...if I had to guess a firm number, I'd go with 4.2x (TFA was 4.35x, but I'd expect a little sequel frontloading) for $189M, but now I type that and it seems too low...but maybe I should trust the Math...

 

God, that means, like JL, I'm gonna lose almost all my casino bets unless my Math sucks...here's to the Math sucking!:)

 

EDIT: Rogue One was 5.35x, but it didn't have the "pay anything you want" showings or "trilogy rush" factor, so I think it's multiplier doesn't apply...although I hope it does...

Edited December 15, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, MattW said:

45+55+63+48?  Seems reasonable

sw7 was 57+62 = 119 od

so true friday was 8.8% more than previews.

that gives sw8 49 true friday for 45 + 49 = 94 od ... 45 + 49 + 54 (+10%) + 47 (-13%) = 195 ow

i think 100 od will be tough to crack but not impossible. 90-95 imo.

Edited December 15, 2017 by a2knet

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Not horrible numbers. But word of mouth on RT is nothing to take to heart. Fans will flock to it easily this weekend and for the rest of the holiday box office. Even going into January, because minus maybe Insidious 4 and Proud Mary, January sucks. 

 

Oh God, ive just looked at the schedule and January is a total wasteland.

[filmlover]

So I guess the question is whether it'll have enough firepower to pass Jurassic World/The Avengers to become the second biggest opening ever.

[FantasticBeasts]

Anyone willing to post what this number gives with TFA and RO multiplier for those of us who are lazy enough to search this?

[seduh]

I expect a +$95 OD, so a +$190 is on store. Great numbers. Let's see how it holds 

[MrGlass2]

11 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

$105.8m going into the weekend. 

That is crazy for Sweden, given the population.

[eddyxx]

So I just saw Empirecity's posts screen shotted on 4chan. 

[Lestranger]

I am loving the pessimism on this thread. It reminds me that bias is natural. Everyone has it.

[James]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

sw7 was 57+62 = 119 od

so true friday was 8.8% more than previews.

that gives sw8 49 true friday for 45 + 49 = 94 od

i think 100 od will be tough to crack but not impossible. 90-95 imo.

I just want an OD under DH2. 

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Oh God, ive just looked at the schedule and January is a total wasteland.

When is it not? January is basically dump month. Thankfully it should give SW and the other Christmas films more box office time. 

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

So I guess the question is whether it'll have enough firepower to pass Jurassic World/The Avengers to become the second biggest opening ever.

 

 

I am going to think it will go under at this stage, but I Think it will beat those films domestically. 

[filmlover]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Oh God, ive just looked at the schedule and January is a total wasteland.

It looks like death. Everything from December + expanding Oscar players should reap the benefits.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Anyone willing to post what this number gives with TFA and RO multiplier for those of us who are lazy enough to search this?

TFA muliplier = 195.75

RO multiplier = 240.75

[George Parr]

2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Anyone willing to post what this number gives with TFA and RO multiplier for those of us who are lazy enough to search this?

If I'm not mistaken, the same previews-to-weekend multipliers would lead to:

TFA: ~196m

Rogue One: 240.5m

 

edit: a bit too late

Edited December 15, 2017 by George Parr