THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[grey ghost]

I love when the alt right comes for Disney.

 

They get bitch slapped every time.

[TwoMisfits]

For perspective on the RT numbers and why so many of us are probably shocked...

 

The lowest 2017 Disney film RT audience number was for Pirates 5 at 62% and 3.6/5.  I mean, Disney hasn't made a movie in 2017 that audiences didn't like (at least on RT.com)...and they've had to handle other beloved franchises and expectations for those movies all year...pretty much every movie...

 

It would have been one thing if we saw critic reviews like B&TB critics on RT.com - much more mixed before settling at 71% and 6.6...but this one was 93% with an 8.2...with these numbers, Disney WOM is almost always slam dunk good...it's never even a question or a thought that crosses your mind that audiences might not just be "ehh", but might actively "hate", too...

 

I mean, now, the reality check - this is Star Wars, this is Xmas, and this will still be in the Top 2 DOM movies all year...and probably almost certainly #1 DOM (buuuttt, I'm gonnna not say "slam dunk" b/c JL has taught me a lesson last month - keep seeing if the numbers actually ever show before proclaiming certainty:)...

 

But maybe b/c it's Star Wars, THE flagship franchise, that even the possibility this isn't almost universally liked (b/c nothing is ever universally liked) is even more shocking...and why so many are posting as the scores just keep somehow dropping, like JL's BO just kept dropping that 1st Friday...

 

[WrathOfHan]

My thoughts on January:

 

Insidious: 15/40. Recent early January horror movies tend to open in the low to mid teens, and being part of a franchise helps this greatly. Plus, it's the first horror movie since Jigsaw and first PG-13 horror since HDD.

Molly's Game: 6/20. Buzz is pretty low on this one, although I did see an ad on TV earlier today. Maybe STX can push the eventual Adapted Screenplay nomination? It should hang onto theaters throughout January.

 

The Post: 35/160. I'm feeling a breakout here. With a 4 day OW, I have a hard time seeing it open below 30M for the 3 day, and strong WOM and awards will keep it floating until March (where it could win BP). A 40M OW isn't out of reach IMO.

Paddington: 20/80. I think it'll stay pretty close to the first at the bare minimum. The first has been on Netflix for quite a bit, which has helped the audience grow, and I'm already seeing ads for it. 90-100M may not be out of reach.

Proud Mary: 12/34. Sony has dropped the ball on marketing BIG TIME. I can't believe it's coming out in less than a month because there's been next to nothing since the first trailer!

Commuter: 8/22. Anything over 10M on OW should be a win because the trailers get bad reactions pretty consistently in my experience (others on here have reported the same).

 

12 Strong: 10/30. This could do anywhere from OTB numbers to Deepwater numbers. If it's good, it'll be closer to the latter.

Den of Thieves: 4/10. No.

Forever My Girl: 3/8. Assuming this is even going wide, I doubt it'll be successful. This looks like a TV movie.

 

Maze Runner: 25/70. Will enough people care outside of the fans?

[The Futurist]

No faith in Den of Thieves ?

Gerald Butler s filmography will be featured in cinematheques for decades to come, no bad apple there.

[grey ghost]

Ferdinand gotta make the top 15.

 

Save my Winter Game, John Cena!

[Goffe]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

I don't know, but there was some very strange manipulation of its score years after it was out.  It has over 34 MILLION ratings and the score dropped from the 90s down to I think the 50s then back to the mid 60s.

Same with the first Harry Potter movies. I think GOF has like 35 million votes.

[Brainbug]

When can we expect RTH to give us early numbers?

[grey ghost]

9 times out 10 when there's a lop sided critic vs user rating, the user rating is much higher.

 

I can't wait to see TLJ to analyze the discrepancy.

 

But how do we know it's not alt right bots or something?

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

9 times out 10 when there's a lop sided critic vs user rating, the user rating is much higher.

 

I can't wait to see TLJ to analyze the discrepancy.

 

But how do we know it's not alt right bots or something?

I went in (probably some spoiler territory) and read the audience reviews on RT. Looks like folks are genuinely pissed.

Edited December 15, 2017 by a2knet

[mahnamahna]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

It looks like death. Everything from December + expanding Oscar players should reap the benefits.

With WB distributing Paddington 2 in the US, it might also end up doing $80 million+ DOM like it deserves as opposed to the $50-65 million DOM from being a Weinstein production. With how awful Peter Rabbit looks, I hope Paddington 2 sneaks its way to $100 million DOM. 

 

If The Post get serious Oscar buzz (Best Picture + Best Actress frontrunner status), I could see Hidden Figures or Lincoln numbers, not Blind Side, though, since that was a zeitgeist phenomenon and 15:17 to Paris will kill some of its pre-Oscar momentum, I think. Still, $100 million DOM seems like a lock, given how empty MLK weekend and the following three weeks look. 

[grey ghost]

10 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

No faith in Den of Thieves ?

Gerald Butler s filmography will be featured in cinematheques for decades to come, no bad apple there.

January looks like a dumping ground.

 

Chances are, it got dumped.

[MattW]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

sw7 was 57+62 = 119 od

so true friday was 8.8% more than previews.

that gives sw8 49 true friday for 45 + 49 = 94 od ... 45 + 49 + 54 (+10%) + 47 (-13%) = 195 ow

i think 100 od will be tough to crack but not impossible. 90-95 imo.

Yeah reading through I think 55 maybe a bit tough, but starting from a lower base gives it more room to grow. Rogue one increased 45% Friday over Thursday. I think last Jedi should have a bigger Friday increase than TFA pretty easily.

 

45+52+59+48 might be more reasonable. I'm still def on the 200m train. 

Choo choo

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

When can we expect RTH to give us early numbers?

I dunno. Maybe 8 hours from now.

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

No faith in Den of Thieves ?

Gerald Butler s filmography will be featured in cinematheques for decades to come, no bad apple there.

But will MST3K still be around to play it?

[a2k]

ROAD CHIP did 4.1 OD and 14.3 OW.

If FERDI does that OD I think it will do 15-16 OW as ROAD CHIP had some frontloading being a tri-quel.

Hoping it can get close to 5 OD.

[Porthos]

19 hours ago, Porthos said:

Over/Under: 

 

Thread Bans 4.5

Forum Bans 1.5

How we doin' so far?

 

Something tells me the over is gonna get heavy traction on this. 

[MCKillswitch123]

I loved The Last Jedi, but unless the RT audience score is 80% trolls and pissed off fanboys, eek, that wom may not be too good.

 

This may be The Empire Strikes Back of our generation (not as much in quality as in sheer controversy for daring to try something unique and getting the massive short stick for it). I'm a Star Wars fan, and holy shit, while some arguments are valid, the enormous overreactions surrounding are something to behold   I thought half the internet despised TFA, now they're like "how dare this movie not answer all of TFA's questions"? I bet when Episode IX comes out, they'll be like "how dare this movie do [insert whatever] when TLJ did [insert whatever].

[MattW]

The thing to watch out for with early updates is that they're guessing at how walkups will be the rest of the day, and with a movie like Star wars presales are bigger than normal so there's more room to overestimate walkups, which is what happened with the force awakens and that ridiculous 130-145m Friday early DL estimate

[DAJK]

Talked to a friend from college who saw it last night. He went with a group of his friends, said he liked it but yea they were pretty split on it overall, half of them liking it half hating it.

[RandomCat]

Fair to say everyone I've spoken to, at work and family, has liked it. but that's only a handful of people.