INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[Biggestgeekever]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

It's a fake cap. Look at inflation on Jurassic World and the 2012 Avengers film. Both around $70m for true Friday after inflation. 

Indeed! Avengers first Saturday adjusts to $78M; in general Saturday business for opening weekends has gotten to be a bigger piece of the pie since then, so it's going to be very exciting to see if IW can top $80M today.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, The Futurist said:

67m is still pretty amazing tho.

But I appreciate your comments about taking into account inflation.

 

And so the next number to target for this film is around $78m Saturday. That's the inflation adjusted Saturday number for 2012 Avengers and Jurassic World. 

[Krissykins]

Disney fudging Wrinkle In Time, despite  losing half it’s locations. 

 

They did the same with Cinderella when Ultron opened. 

[meriodejaneiro]

It just keeps increasing the numbers ... i think it will beat the OW record at last. 

 

Saturday AM: Industry estimates have Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War at $106.7M (including that $39M Thursday night) and $245.6M over three days, which would put the pic second behind Star Wars: Force Awakens record opening of $247.9M.

 

http://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-weekend-box-office-opening-records-1202378032/

 

 

 

[Sam]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

It's a fake cap. Look at inflation on Jurassic World and the 2012 Avengers film. Both around $70m for true Friday after inflation. 

Gonna dispute another “cap” today. 

 

I guess Sunday is the only weekend day we don’t put a cap on since it’s the most unpredictable.

[Premium George]

So, what is more impressive, OS or DOM? I will go with OS right now. OS like performance in US would mean $80m friday.

[meriodejaneiro]

And this ...

 

5

Black Panther

Dis

1,650 (-280)

$1.2M (+3%)

$4.4M(-11%)

$688M

11

[Jake Gittes]

A Wrinkle in Time is getting the fudge (5th biggest PTA in the chart, 10% increase over last Friday despite losing almost half of its theaters) but still gonna be topping out at 96-97m.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, meriodejaneiro said:

It just keeps increasing the numbers ... i think it will beat the OW record at last. 

 

Saturday AM: Industry estimates have Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War at $106.7M (including that $39M Thursday night) and $245.6M over three days, which would put the pic second behind Star Wars: Force Awakens record opening of $247.9M.

 

http://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-weekend-box-office-opening-records-1202378032/

 

 

 

Deadline’s wrong, the official Friday estimate is 106m

[Thrylos 7]

Just now, meriodejaneiro said:

And this ...

 

5

Black Panther

Dis

1,650 (-280)

$1.2M (+3%)

$4.4M(-11%)

$688M

11

Yey, definately passing TLJ worldwide

[DMan7]

So what do you guys think the final total will be OS? 2B?

[grey ghost]

Not to toot my own horn but..

 

On 6/5/2017 at 9:36 AM, grey ghost said:

@Ethan Hunt pissed me off so much by shitting on Thanos that I made this club! 

 

It's not the boldest of clubs but I think this is a reasonable benchmark outside of those miserable bastards who think Marvel's glory days are over.

 

Anyway, my top reasons this club will be a runaway success.

 

1) No Mayweather fight, bitches. 200 m OW is possible.

 

2) This is the climax of phases 1 through 3. The culmination of a decade of building Marvel Universe.

 

3) It's not a Captain America movie.

 

4) The Russos are like James Gunn, among MCU's greatest directors and not to be underestimated.

 

5) Thanos is the Avenger's Joker. Expect a decent bump when he finally leaves his throne to get busy.

 

6) Dr. Strange was a huge success. GotG2 was a huge success. Thor 3 and Black Panther will most likely be a huge success. All these characters will be in Avengers 3, many of who never fought alongside the Avengers.

 

7) AOU had kind of weak trailers. Disney's marketing for MCU movies has never been stronger and they will pull out all the stops for their final phase 3 push.

 

8) With a 200 m OW, all Infinity War needs are 2.52 legs to beat Beauty and the Flea Bag.

 

 

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, DMan7 said:

So what do you guys think the final total will be OS? 2B?

Atm 1.2-1.4B

Edited April 28, 2018 by pepsa

[MCKillswitch123]

22 minutes ago, Joel M said:

Of course amazing OD for IW, it would be even if it was just a hair above the true friday record. I wonder how the preview/OD ratio is compared to CW and Ultron.

 

A Quiet Place might be able to manage an under 50% and I bet is gonna go back to under 40% drops for the next two weekends where nothing big opens. Phenomenal WOM.

 

Slightly dissapointed about Rampage, I thought it could manage an under 60% drop.

Ultron's previews had a 32.7% share of OD; Civil War's had a 32.9%; Infinity War had a 36.8%. When you consider that IW's previews were over 10M higher than Ultron's, that number isn't concerning by any means, and is actually encouraging if anything. 

 

As a matter of fact, here's a chart of the preview share of every movie that has made over 30M in previews:

1. Avengers: Infinity War - 36.8% (39M previews, 106M OD)
2. The Dark Knight Rises - 40.4% (30.6M previews, 75.8M OD)
3. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 - 42.3% (30.3M previews, 71.6M OD)
4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 - 42.7% (30.4M previews, 71.2M OD)
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 43% (45M previews, 104.7M OD)
6. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - 43.9% (30.1M previews, 68.5M OD)
7. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows, Part 2 - 47.7% (43.5M previews, 91.1M OD)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 47.9% (57M previews, 119.1M OD)

The higher previews you go, the higher the share of OD (which means that the movie was more frontloaded on Thursday) - though I should point out that Eclipse was a Wednesday opener, which probably downplayed its OD gross. But nevertheless, the fact that IW was the 1st movie with 30M+ previews - almost 40 - to make sub-40% share despite coming a few million behind DH2 and TLJ is a good sign of what its IM will be.

Edited April 28, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[DAR]

Assuming it does break the OW we could be having this same exact conversation again next year 

[pepsa]

And if next weekend drop is good, and china overpreforms 1.5-1.6B but thats a far stretch. 

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

It just keeps increasing the numbers ... i think it will beat the OW record at last. 

 

Saturday AM: Industry estimates have Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War at $106.7M (including that $39M Thursday night) and $245.6M over three days, which would put the pic second behind Star Wars: Force Awakens record opening of $247.9M.

 

http://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-weekend-box-office-opening-records-1202378032/

 

 

 

Industry estimates are usually conservative. 

[meriodejaneiro]

AWIT increases 10.7% from last friday although it lost almost half theaters count ... is this the "IW effect" too?

 

 

 

27 - (estimate)

$205,000

282.5% / 10.7%

371 / $553

$94,154,046 / 50

[bladels]

3 minutes ago, Critically Acclaimed Panda said:

Deadline’s wrong, the official Friday estimate is 106m

$105.9M is Disney's estimate

$106.7M is industry's estimate

Disney probably moved some to A Winkle in Time

[SteveJaros]

Disney is  going to be cautious with these weekend estimates, they remember how Ultron 's big expectations fizzled as their OW went on, and the embarrassment that ensued. 

Always low-ball as the weekend unfurls, there's no downside to doing that. You're not going to kill any momentum.

Edited April 28, 2018 by SteveJaros