HAN SOLO MEMORIAL (day weekend) THREAD | Solo Flops Domestically with 83M/101M weekend. Spectacularly Bombs Overseas with 65M weekend.

[Zakiyyah6]

I hate when people say "my friends liked this or that movie better." As if that that means that the film will do better than predicted. That's not proof of anything. I'm not a fortune teller, I don't KNOW what Solo will do over the weekend but I'm not going to trot out my friends opinions to try to prove a point. 

[dxmatrixdt]

400 people per theater multiplied by $9.16 average per purchase multiplied by my estimation of 3,957 for Thursday location showings gives a Thursday number of 14.50, half of Rogue One's.  If this 400 attendance avg # doubles on Friday to 800 at 4,381 locations with the $9.16 avg, you get a 32.1m Friday. 

if the 400 avg Thursday attendance goes to 800 on Friday and then 1,000 on Saturday, Saturday becomes 40.1m and -5%ish on Sunday could be 38 million.  This all adds up to around 110/125ish.  These are longshot numbers and it would be too risky for long range predictions because you will be stacking predictions on top of predictions.  A better guess would be 800 people-per on Friday, then 900 Saturday *(GOTG2 Friday level), and 900 Sunday.  I think 800 is the upper end range because it shows that Solo would be headed for 115*+ 3-day which is above forecasts.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Well I can only speak for my friends and I but the best thing about Star Wars to them are Jedi and Sith. Withot those elements Star Wars becomes a generic sci-fi franchise which they can find better films like GOTG or Thor: Ragnarok. Old Republic would appeal to them I reckon.  

[Rumpot]

8 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I hate when people say "my friends liked this or that movie better." As if that that means that the film will do better than predicted. That's not proof of anything. I'm not a fortune teller, I don't KNOW what Solo will do over the weekend but I'm not going to trot out my friends opinions to try to prove a point. 

"Hate" is kind of a strong word for a perfectly valid post in a thread that will have thousands of posts about one number (ie, most are gibberish).  Also, I think it's pertinent that a few hardcore Star Wars fans felt this lived up.  And I wasn't proving a point.  I said it "may pull partially out of a nose dive." Furthermore this isn't my friends, it's my social media (I know very very few of them) so we are at least talking 100+ people.  If you think that's SO irrelevant that you "hate" it while gifs about who knows what are very useful to you then...eh well, I guess I said what I was going to

[Zakiyyah6]

All I can say is that my sister got mad at me because I said that Solo didn't look good so I didn't want to see it. She's a hardcore fan. I like the films but I'm not a hardcore fan so Solo is just so horribly unappealing to me in every way shape and fashion. If the trailers weren't bland, maybe I would have seen it but they were. 

[pepsa]

11 minutes ago, pepsa said:

So now that we have most numbers numbers from the main markets the OS+China will come in below $80m.

 

So if does come in at $80m or less. Than even with good WoM that could give this a x3 multi it still would only be at $240m, let's be optimistic and say that japan won't drop. That would add another $40m and a total of $280m OS. 

Btw that x3 multi would in reality mean more like a 3.2 -3.5 multi in Europe and Australia because in Asia it might strugle with a 2 - 2.5 multi.

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Well I can only speak for my friends and I but the best thing about Star Wars to them are Jedi and Sith. Withot those elements Star Wars becomes a generic sci-fi franchise which they can find better films like GOTG or Thor: Ragnarok. Old Republic would appeal to them I reckon.  

Last Jedi hints that the jedi order will be rebuilt... not going to hold my breath that it actually happens but there is potential. We don't have to go back in time to have more Jedi (which I agree would be a good thing)

 

I think it's very strange that lucasfilm decided to recreate in 7 onwards, the same world of the originals where you have a tiny gang of rebels vs a massive empire. Especially since it makes particularly TLJ feel so small in scope

[Zakiyyah6]

5 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

"Hate" is kind of a strong word for a perfectly valid post in a thread that will have thousands of posts about one number (ie, most are gibberish).  Also, I think it's pertinent that a few hardcore Star Wars fans felt this lived up.  And I wasn't proving a point.  I said it "may pull partially out of a nose dive." Furthermore this isn't my friends, it's my social media (I know very very few of them) so we are at least talking 100+ people.  If you think that's SO irrelevant that you "hate" it while gifs about who knows what are very useful to you then...eh well, I guess I said what I was going to

There were plenty of people who thought that Justice League was better than BvS and that didn't save it at the box office.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 minutes ago, Ranger Tree said:

Last Jedi hints that the jedi order will be rebuilt... not going to hold my breath that it actually happens but there is potential. We don't have to go back in time to have more Jedi (which I agree would be a good thing)

 

I think it's very strange that lucasfilm decided to recreate in 7 onwards, the same world of the originals where you have a tiny gang of rebels vs a massive empire. Especially since it makes particularly TLJ feel so small in scope

Safe option which resulted in $2 Billion...but also meant developing markets with no attachment to the OT were alienated and didn't come back for the other Star Wars films.

 

 

[Poseidon]

So Solo might be somewhere in the ballpark of the first Hobbit Movie, but probably won't end up with the same legs. 

 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Poseidon said:

So Solo might be somewhere in the ballpark of the first Hobbit Movie, but probably won't end up with the same legs. 

 

 

Given the fact that The Hobbit opened in December like the last 3 Star Wars movies and got the same holiday boost as those, i think we can safely say Solo wont catch those legs in the summer even if WOM is great.

[dxmatrixdt]

Solo - 300-400 domestic, 500-700 worldwide.

*Rogue One ~1.05 billion

The Force Awakens ~ 2 billion

The Last Jedi ~ 1.33 billion

 

...............maybe 1.5 billion for Episode IX?

Edited May 25, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[DeeCee]

I’m watching the end of an AFL game from the future Marvel Stadium. 

 

 

(I don’t support them)

[stripe]

32 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I hate when people say "my friends liked this or that movie better." As if that that means that the film will do better than predicted. That's not proof of anything. I'm not a fortune teller, I don't KNOW what Solo will do over the weekend but I'm not going to trot out my friends opinions to try to prove a point. 

 

Obviously someone's friends are not a objective sample or proof of anything. But it's legit to note how the people we know is reacting to a certain movie. It's just some empirical data that may be helpful to draw a possible future.

 

[FilmBuff]

31 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I hate when people say "my friends liked this or that movie better." As if that that means that the film will do better than predicted. That's not proof of anything. I'm not a fortune teller, I don't KNOW what Solo will do over the weekend but I'm not going to trot out my friends opinions to try to prove a point. 

 

But the thing is, my friends did like Solo. So it’ll do good at the box office 

[nevermore]

4 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

Solo - 300-400 domestic, 500-700 worldwide.

*Rogue One ~1.05 billion

The Force Awakens ~ 2 billion

The Last Jedi ~ 1.33 billion

 

...............maybe 1.5 billion for Episode IX?

Personally I don't see it reaching 1.5B, but who knows.

[Lordmandeep]

7 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

Solo - 300-400 domestic, 500-700 worldwide.

*Rogue One ~1.05 billion

The Force Awakens ~ 2 billion

The Last Jedi ~ 1.33 billion

 

...............maybe 1.5 billion for Episode IX?

 

I think they be lucky if Episode 9 goes over a 1.2 billion

 

 

Could easily see

575

600 

1.175 billion for Episode 9 

[Valonqar]

52 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

  There's a greater chance it goes under Ant-Man 2.

[Zakiyyah6]

With the freefall the series is having overseas? 1.5bil would be surprising to me.

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

With the freefall the series is having overseas? 1.5bil would be surprising to me.

There's no way IX doesn't drop OS from TLJ and no way it recovers so well dom to offset OS loss and get to 1.5B. This isn't just the case of coming after a divisive second movie, but with Solo bombing (OS is a disaster, no way to spin it), it's a case of seriously weakened brand and fatigue. Plus competition will be even more serious than what TLJ had.