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Eric the Fall Guy

AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

By Eric the Fall Guy, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Water Bottle,

it's not official until Thursday but the sale is live. get a Gold Account for half off for the month or for a quarter off for the whole year!
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Posted by AndyLL,

Moderation:   Please be careful talking about the movie.   No matter how minor it seems... for us that haven't  seen the film the littlest tidbit about a plot points adds up.   You risk a warning or even worst... a thread ban... for posting anything about the movie that is not in the official materials.
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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I dont see any movie coming close for a decade. Not even Avengers assemble with XMen. SW franchise has gone downhill and DC is in shambles.

Careful, you could threadbanned for saying that! 

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted
Just now, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

My only legit hope now is Disney+ flopping but even that’s doubtful

Assuming 30$ per MCU movie to own (not including Homecoming) and 21 MCU movies for Disney you're looking at 630$ minimum to own them all, or you can spend 6$ a month on D+it'd take almost a decade for the MCU alone to not be worth it assuming no more are released and Spider man doesn't make it onto D+

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Eric the Fall Guy Global Phenomenon

Eric the Fall Guy

Posted
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5 minutes ago, iHeartJames said:

@IronJimbo loyalty to James Cameron is honestly hot if push comes to shove I would dress up as a Na'vi and be his little whore.

Well then...

 

On 1/14/2017 at 8:48 PM, IronJimbo said:

My biggest kink is a bit weird hehe.. I've lost 2 gf to it lol. After I'm comfortable with a new gf I tell them that my kink is blue body paint, like all over. Then I teach them a couple lines in na'vi to speak when I'm slamming them.

 

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Noctis Global Phenomenon

Noctis

Posted
Posted

Just saw the movie...the last hour is fucking insane on every level and I am in LOVE with the film. Best Marvel film alongside IM1.

 

I'm gobsmacked by how great the movie was. I did not expect a Marvel movie to have such an emotional impact. Glorious ending...could not have been more perfect.

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

I was just doing some rough calculations for Worldwide opening weekend.

 

OS total through Thursday including China - 305

 

Now lets look at Friday. We already have China (63.75) and South Korea numbers (8.4). Plus for Dom lets take a little smaller number than Rth's low end conservative estimate. So lets assume a Dom Friday of 145m. So total through Friday including all these numbers are:-

 

Total through Friday = 522 (remember this does not include OS Friday numbers as they have not been reported yet with exception of China and SK)

 

- China through Sunday looks to be adding 120m more on conservative side (realistically probably more)

- Dom through Sunday looks to be adding 165m more (for a total Dom weekend of 310. Again some might call it conservative)

 

Total through Sunday = 807m (Does not include OS FSS except for China)

 

Now guessing OS FSS is gonna be difficult so I went and looked at how Infinity War performed over the weekend. Infinity War and Endgame opened in almost exactly the same territories OS so there wont be too much difference here).

 

Using Infinity War drops over OS weekend and applying same number to Endgame gives 442m OS FSS.

 

Total through Sunday with all countries = 807+442 = 1249m

 

I cannot comprehend that number. We were all expecting it to cross 1b WW but cross it by this much? @Charlie Jatinder what do you think? Is my math wrong or is this possible?

Update

 

Now that we have total through Friday we can tighten our numbers a bit

 

Total through Friday - 643.7m

 

Expected China addition through Sunday - 112.75

Expected Dom addition through Sunday - 184 (This number is based on assumption of 340m Domestic. Most people are expecting more but I will stay conservative for now)

 

Expected total through Sunday (minus OS-China Sat/Sun) - 939.75

 

Now comes the difficult task of predicting OS Sat and Sun. In my previous post for OS FSS I used IW drops to calculate. Thus they were projections rather than predictions. Today I will use IW drops as reference but predict the drops

 

OS-China Sat - 148.75 (+25%) (Infinity War jumped 31.7% on the same day but I am using a lower jump because Endgame's Friday Jump of 34% was lower than Infinity War's Friday jump 52%)

OS-China Sun - 119 (-20%) (again giving a bigger drop than Infinity War which dropped just 16%)

 

Total worldwide through Sun - 1207.5

 

Adding in Russia's expected 25m OW which opens on Monday gives us a combined Worldwide opening of - 1232.5 (Infinity War's Russia OW was about 19m)

 

Infinity War had 2.38x multi from its Worldwide opening. Endgame is definitely going to be more frontloaded IMO. So giving a conservative 2.1x multi gives us a Worldwide total of 2588m.

 

I have gone fairly conservative with Domestic OW. And some people might think that my worldwide multi is also fairly conservative. Some think that the finale factor plus overwhelmingly positive reception would lead to lots of repeat viewing but I would like to stay conservative and be pleasantly surprised if numbers come higher rather than set too high a target and then be disappointed with frankly stupendous numbers nonetheless.

 

Even with BvS worldwide multi of 2.07 we get a worldwide total of 2550m. So for now I feel safe to say that Worldwide will come between 2.5-2.6b. 

To exceed Avatar's total and get to 2.8 billion will require a multi of 2.27 which is still lower than Infinity War's multi of 2.38 so there is still a realistic shot of doing so. 

 

Let's see how this plays out through Sunday. We will have a better idea tomorrow when worldwide and dom estimates come through. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by ZeeSoh
Please note that Infinity War's Sat and Sun OS drops are guesstimates rather than actual numbers. I couldnt find any actual numbers
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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

Im still holding out hope that Aladdin turns into another bomb for Disney like Dumbo.

Lol at hoping a movie bombs. What a juvenile attitude. This isn't sports. I don't particularly care for Sony and how they do things but I'm not hoping Morbius bombs. I didn't hope Venom bombed. I was elated when it did as well as it did. People who hate Disney because of their stranglehold on the market need to focus their energies on hoping other studios succeed,rather than on Disney failing. Even if Aladdin bombs, Disney will always have their tentpoles and ultra popular IP's so it doesn't matter which of their films bomb. What you need is other studios to do better.

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MrPink Global Phenomenon

MrPink

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm starting to think this will hold onto the #1 spot until Aladdin comes out Memorial Day weekend.

 

I think this is the case, especially if it hits 370 like Box Office has.

 

I still hope John Wick 3 can open in the high 40s tho

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