Weekend Thread: Estimates - Midway 17.5, Sleep 14.1, Fire 12.8, Xmas 11.6, Terminatah 10.8, Jokah 9.2, Mal2 8

[Legion Again]

I sure hope F2 doesnt flop with 599M or smth   

[forg]

As for A Good Day in the Neighborhood yeah feels like there's less hype now. And I don't think it will get that much awards buzz too. Sony has Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as their main prestige player and I could see them going all out with Little Women as well.  Little Women also has better chances in international box office too unlike A Good Day

Edited November 10, 2019 by forg

[Jonwo]

According to Deadline, Doctor Sleep will probably lose between $20-30m for WB. In the grand scheme of things, that's bad but nothing compared to what Terminator and Gemini Man will lose for Paramount. 

 

 

[JB33]

Change of plans. We're seeing Doctor Sleep right now and Last Christmas on Tuesday.

 

Thoughts on the other side. 

[reddevil19]

1 hour ago, Xftg123 said:

Incredibles 2 was the closest at 182M. And that ended up becoming the highest grossing animated movie at the domestic box office, and was the first animated film to make 600M domestically.

Jurassic World and The Lion King... 

[La Binoche]

1 hour ago, forg said:

As for A Good Day in the Neighborhood yeah feels like there's less hype now. And I don't think it will get that much awards buzz too. Sony has Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as their main prestige player and I could see them going all out with Little Women as well.  Little Women also has better chances in international box office too unlike A Good Day

What's the buzz like on Little Women? I haven't kept up with it. Have there been screenings? 

[CoolioD1]

5 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

What's the buzz like on Little Women? I haven't kept up with it. Have there been screenings? 

critics have tweeted reactions but there's still a review embargo. strong word so far. Florence Pugh mvp it sounds like.

Edited November 11, 2019 by CoolioD1

[forg]

20 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

What's the buzz like on Little Women? I haven't kept up with it. Have there been screenings? 

 The press have seen it and looks like it's good although no full reviews yet, embargoed. The awards prognosticators who I assumed saw it already are high on it too.

Edited November 11, 2019 by forg

[John2015]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

According to Deadline, Doctor Sleep will probably lose between $20-30m for WB. In the grand scheme of things, that's bad but nothing compared to what Terminator and Gemini Man will lose for Paramount. 

 

 

 

Paramount only financed 30% of the new Terminator.  They would lose around $50 million on the film; not good， but it won't break the company.

Edited November 11, 2019 by John2015

[John Marston]

 

From the Deadline article: 

 

I hear Warner suits are baffled and saddened by how a well-reviewed (74% fresh) and good audience polled movie like Doctor Sleep, with a B+ CinemaScore and 4 Stars/82% fresh on PostTrak, just crapped the bed.

[Webslinger]

Quite the bleh weekend. On balance, it's been a really long time since we saw a November weekend this weak outside of the occasional November 30 post-Thanksgiving weekend (see: 2007, 2012, and 2018), but that weekend effectively plays like a calm early December frame after the Thanksgiving storm. To see such a weak slate before even getting to Thanksgiving is discouraging, to say the least.

 

Midway gets a nice pyrrhic victory thanks to the weakness of the marketplace. Distributor investment breakdowns notwithstanding, a $17.5 million start isn't great for a film that carries a nine-figure pricetag. I could see it holding up decently, though I imagine that most adults will probably gravitate toward Ford v. Ferrari and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood in the next two weekends.

 

Doctor Sleep put up a rather disappointing debut, though I guess it's a case of the internet and film buffs having more interest than the general population. Even though The Shining is a classic with both of those segments, I'm not really sure how much familiarity or appreciation the younger crowd has for it. Throw in a 2.5-hour running time and it just seems clear in hindsight that it was never going to drum up enough mainstream interest to put up the expected $25-30 million opening. But like Mike Flanagan's other films thus far, I definitely think it's going to find a following among horror aficionados.

 

Playing with Fire did well enough for a poorly-reviewed live action family comedy. It should enjoy a nice hold next weekend before facing the Frozen II juggernaut in two weeks.

 

Last Christmas posted an anemic start, but it should have fairly decent staying power in the coming weeks. Given how crowded the next few weekends are, I don't really think holding off on the release date would have resulted in a much stronger start (and for reference, Love Actually opened one day earlier on the calendar in 2003).

 

Terminator had an awful hold. The fact that it couldn't get much traction even without a huge new opener in its path speaks to the weakness of its reception. A domestic total under $70 million should stick a fork in the franchise for a while.

 

Joker continues to put up some fabulous staying power. It's a lock to top the grosses of Batman v. Superman and Suicide Squad from three years ago and could wrap around or over $340 million.

 

Maleficent has recovered quite nicely since its large second weekend drop. It once looked like it might not cross $100 million by a whole lot, and yet it's already almost there. It's still off an alarming amount from the gross of its predecessor, but it has at least saved a little bit of face the last couple weekends.

 

Harriet has performed rather well thus far. I really wasn't expecting much from it after the good-not-great reviews started to roll in, but it should top at least $40 million domestically - far from a given for a Focus Features flick.

 

It's nice to see Jojo Rabbit and Parasite continue to put up solid expansion numbers. I'm very much looking forward to having both reach my area soon (hopefully).

[Ryan Reynolds]

Mrs. Ferguson starred in 3 notable wide release flops this year. Dune up next. 

[sfran43]

 

[lilmac]

This is a backloaded November. 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Mrs. Ferguson starred in 3 notable wide release flops this year. Dune up next. 

 

 

well it has nothing to do with her

[Old Spice]

Really enjoyed Doctor Sleep once the damn thing started. The problem was it took forever to do so. 10-12 minutes of ads and 3-4 trailers and sundry corporate housekeeping, and suddenly a 12:10 screening doesn't start until 12:35. The trailers I don't mind (Richard Jewell really looked great on the big screen) but the other stuff...

 

Makes me wonder if the people in charge of the major theater chains actually ever go out to movies themselves? 😒

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

looks pretty sketchy though.

yeah, take 74k.

[Zakiyyah6]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Mrs. Ferguson starred in 3 notable wide release flops this year. Dune up next. 

Eh, she wasn't the star of any of those films. Dune has a huge uphill climb but I'm not willing to definitively call it a flop until I at least see a trailer.

[Jiggly Del Rey]

I would like to see Last Christmas. lol

[filmlover]

Following its massive launch this weekend, Honey Boy will be getting a slow rollout throughout the rest of the month to the top 15 markets until it officially goes wide around the same time the Golden Globe nominations are announced (which aren't until the 9th of next month so December 6 or 13 is presumably the wide date).

 

https://deadline.com/2019/11/honey-boy-amazon-studios-the-kingmaker-greenwich-entertainment-showtime-documentary-filims-parasite-neon-specialty-box-office-1202782318/