THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[ImNotExcited]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

 

 

[Felandria]

38 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

And some fans are still claiming that nonsense talking point.

It’s almost like Last Jedi dropped around the same, percentage wise, as Empire and Clones.

 

Get outta here calling it nonsense, from a historical perspective, it was totally valid.

[Johnny Tran]

I haven't posted in here since Deadline projected $44-48M for Thursday previews.   A lot has happened since then  

[Zakiyyah6]

6 minutes ago, Felandria said:

It’s almost like Last Jedi dropped around the same, percentage wise, as Empire and Clones.

 

Get outta here calling it nonsense, from a historical perspective, it was totally valid.

The Last Jedi's had historically poor legs for the franchise. You guys never like to bring that up though. That is a word of mouth issue.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[Madhuvan]

Ultron and FK shouldn't be compared with TLJ. Yes, both were meh but they didn't hurt the franchise. 

 

JW3 will be a big hit. People have always loved dinosaur and they will come back for 3rd.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Madhuvan

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

1 hour ago, RthRise said:

Couple hrs ago had TROS  Sat about 48m try update later if any change

[lorddemaxus]

AOU didn't hurt the franchise because Disney did a better job at marketing Infinity War than TROS. Infinity war had better reviews and WoM. Stuff like this doesn't happen simply because of one factor. people are really overestimating the impact TLJ had. Maybe the bigger problem was that JJ didn't deliver?

Edited December 22, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, ImNotExcited said:

TLJ did have both though.

[narniadis]

I can tell the rest of the holiday week box office is going to be so fun to track *sigh* 

 

Saddened that ROS is dropping, but the chances seemed high earlier today so at least its not a last minute weird change and we've had time to consider it. 

 

The film ultimately ends up in the no mans land probably. Not a bomb like Solo, but no where close to original expectations for the "big hit" crowd. 

 

Finally - with the stupidity of the TFA to TLJ drop, the film was never touching 700m. The uber fan crowd for TFA refuses to recognize just how absurdly high the bar was just as TLJ crazed tend to refuse a lack of / negative word of mouth. Its 220m opening spoke to an end of at least 660 (3x) before the evidence of behavior and that 2nd weekend drop hit. 

The opening of ROS definitely shows both a lack of Disney selling the film to the masses as before AND the rejection of some fans on a large enough scale to be accountable. Lest the anti TLJ crowd thinks they won it all though, its obvious that ROS doesnt meet enough needs either. 

All a point which makes this box office follower sad. Reminds me somewhat of how Shrek 3 killed the momentum for Shrek 4 and Puss in Boots couldnt recover. We'd have seen similar drops in Transformers also if not for the addition of 3D which really did offset the look of how bad it was. 

[Mekanos]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

AOU didn't hurt the franchise because Disney did a better job at marketing Infinity War than TROS. Infinity war had better reviews and WoM. Stuff like this doesn't happen simply because of one factor. TLJ are really overestimating the impact TLJ had. Maybe the bigger problem was that JJ didn't deliver?

IW had novelty factor and good will from Phase 3. It was the first Avengers movie with the Guardians, Dr. Strange, Black Panther, and Spider-Man, all of which starred in successful and beloved movies. It helps that it was a great movie obviously, but it was always going to do better than AOU with a roster that stacked.

 

AOU was basically a redux of the first Avengers, no new draws to speak of, so interest was lower.

[titanic2187]

Maybe TROS will blow up like Frozen 2 in its 2nd week.

 

Frozen 2 had meh opening but breakout in its 2nd week despite so-called worrisome cinemascore.  

[water]

update based on new saturday estimate of 47.5. the drop is pretty catastrophic now imo, reaching only bvs being comparable. same methodology for saturday -> sunday drop as before, and this time i put 2.5 for multi to reflect worse wom than tlj

 

-28.3%, 34m sunday, 171m ow, 427m dom

 

Movie	Thurs	T->F	Fri	F->S	Sat	S->S	Sun	OW	Multi	Dom
TFA	57000000	9.0%	62119282	9.9%	68294204	-11.3%	60553189	247966675	3.7773714	936662225
RO	29000000	45.2%	42094394	10.0%	46308115	-18.6%	37679172	155081681	3.4312068	532117324
TLJ	45000000	32.6%	59684491	7.2%	63993205	-19.8%	51331888	220009584	2.8188835	620181382
TROS	40000000	23.1%	49250000	-3.6%	47500000	-28.3%	34034203	170784203	2.5	426960507
TLK	23000000	138.8%	54930758	11.1%	61007382	-13.4%	52832619	191770759	2.8348328	543638043
AOU	27600000	105.9%	56824532	-0.5%	56526635	-11.0%	50319942	191271109	2.3997658	459005868
I2	18500000	185.2%	52760321	11.6%	58894582	-10.8%	52533002	182687905	3.3312646	608581744
CW	25000000	102.0%	50502161	21.2%	61209001	-30.7%	42427980	179139142	2.2780301	408084349
BATB	16300000	191.3%	47477443	32.1%	62706808	-23.0%	48266365	174750616	2.8841911	504014165
BVS	27700000	94.4%	53858505	-5.9%	50657088	-33.3%	33791754	166007347	1.9900336	330360194
EG	60000000	62.4%	97461641	12.1%	109264122	-17.3%	90389244	357115007	2.4036318	858373000
IW	39000000	72.7%	67334939	22.0%	82131612	-15.7%	69231632	257698183	2.6341493	678815482
JW	18500000	243.0%	63453950	9.8%	69644830	-17.9%	57207490	208806270	3.1238077	652270625
BP	25200000	101.4%	50741146	30.1%	65995366	-9.0%	60067439	202003951	3.4655736	700059566
JL	13000000	95.9%	25471202	28.3%	32680117	-30.6%	22690920	93842239	2.4405246	229024295

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

AOU didn't hurt the franchise because Disney did a better job at marketing Infinity War than TROS. Infinity war had better reviews and WoM. Stuff like this doesn't happen simply because of one factor. people are really overestimating the impact TLJ had. Maybe the bigger problem was that JJ didn't deliver?

Out of likes but yes! Data is what data is but its so much easier for most to ignore what doesn't fit their predetermined narrative (goes both ways obviously.) 

Its a similar reason why it was easy to think that ROS could naturally increase based on past data (guilty as I was in that camp - barring a high enough opening). But that one data point ignored others. 

Always a learning field with the box office 15 years on the journey and always something to learn. 

[titanic2187]

IW succeed because there were so many beloved movies in between that help people to forget AoU. 

 

And the hatred to AoU is so much smaller than TLJ 

[Thelasttroll]

1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

What if it goes lower than that? Just based on looking around, I now don't foresee really good word of mouth happening. It's too early to say for sure of course. It just seems like so many fans are disappointed.

Yeah so many fans are disappointed thats why it has an 86% RT AUDIENCE score

[John Marston]

AOU  wasn't disliked by fans as TLJ was to SW fans. It also increased overseas. AOU was a more impressive performer than TLJ

[Mekanos]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

IW succeed because there were so many beloved movies in between that help people to forget AoU. 

 

And the hatred to AoU is so much smaller than TLJ 

Phase 3 was a legendary run of quality films and audiences were gobbling it up like it was going out of style. IW blowing the roof off of AOU was a foregone conclusion.

[narniadis]

6 minutes ago, water said:

update based on new saturday estimate of 47.5. the drop is pretty catastrophic now imo, reaching only bvs being comparable. same methodology for saturday -> sunday drop as before, and this time i put 2.5 for multi to reflect worse wom than tlj

 

-28.3%, 34m sunday, 171m ow, 427m dom

 

Movie	Thurs	T->F	Fri	F->S	Sat	S->S	Sun	OW	Multi	Dom
TFA	57000000	9.0%	62119282	9.9%	68294204	-11.3%	60553189	247966675	3.7773714	936662225
RO	29000000	45.2%	42094394	10.0%	46308115	-18.6%	37679172	155081681	3.4312068	532117324
TLJ	45000000	32.6%	59684491	7.2%	63993205	-19.8%	51331888	220009584	2.8188835	620181382
TROS	40000000	23.1%	49250000	-3.6%	47500000	-28.3%	34034203	170784203	2.5	426960507
TLK	23000000	138.8%	54930758	11.1%	61007382	-13.4%	52832619	191770759	2.8348328	543638043
AOU	27600000	105.9%	56824532	-0.5%	56526635	-11.0%	50319942	191271109	2.3997658	459005868
I2	18500000	185.2%	52760321	11.6%	58894582	-10.8%	52533002	182687905	3.3312646	608581744
CW	25000000	102.0%	50502161	21.2%	61209001	-30.7%	42427980	179139142	2.2780301	408084349
BATB	16300000	191.3%	47477443	32.1%	62706808	-23.0%	48266365	174750616	2.8841911	504014165
BVS	27700000	94.4%	53858505	-5.9%	50657088	-33.3%	33791754	166007347	1.9900336	330360194
EG	60000000	62.4%	97461641	12.1%	109264122	-17.3%	90389244	357115007	2.4036318	858373000
IW	39000000	72.7%	67334939	22.0%	82131612	-15.7%	69231632	257698183	2.6341493	678815482
JW	18500000	243.0%	63453950	9.8%	69644830	-17.9%	57207490	208806270	3.1238077	652270625
BP	25200000	101.4%	50741146	30.1%	65995366	-9.0%	60067439	202003951	3.4655736	700059566
JL	13000000	95.9%	25471202	28.3%	32680117	-30.6%	22690920	93842239	2.4405246	229024295

And again you ignore data.... BVS cannot be compatible as a weekend look due to opening with Good Friday which massively skews the behavior for films even with good word of mouth. 

Its not dropping 28% on Sunday. Sorry man but you are flat wrong. 

 

Edit, not saying BvS can be a bad comp past the weekend, but you have to understand how that weekend works to understand its behavior (esp Saturday falls which happen every year.)

Edited December 22, 2019 by narniadis

[Mekanos]

Just now, John Marston said:

AOU  wasn't disliked by fans as TLJ was to SW fans. It also increased overseas. AOU was a more impressive performer than TLJ

tbf AOU only increased in China, it was down everywhere else IIRC.

[Fox20]

Aou was not even that hated... People were already hyped again by Civil War.

 

And it dropped just 100millions WW, meanwhile the sequels of every movie that beat AOU in 2015 could not even reach AOU's total, showing that Avengers had better retention WW than Fast and Furious, Jurassic Park and Star Wars.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Fox20