Weekend Thread: Free Guy 18.79M (34% drop!) | PAW Patrol 13M, Jungle Cruise 6.2M | Protégé 2.9M, Night House 2.87M, Legendary Flop Reminiscence 2M (Worst opening for a movie in 3K theaters!)

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

It means exactly what I think it means!

[Legion Again]

Free Guy going for a sub 30% SatSun drop in all likelihood. 

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I mean, as good as Paw Patrol's numbers are (especially for its TV-on-the-big-screen nature) it's still going to make less than $60M total and there is still yet to be a family movie make anything above that mark throughout the whole pandemic (titles like Cruella and Jungle Cruise and Space Jam are excluded since they're aimed at a broader audience). With the vaccine situation for children under 12 (the primary audience for these movies) still up in the air, hybrid releases (or just skipping theaters completely like Luca and Hotel Transylvania 4 did) will be common for movies aimed at that demographic for the foreseeable future.

Studios skipping theaters or offering day and date are the reason for that lack of a breakout hit.  Mainly due to probably being afraid of bad PR. 

If anything, PP’s numbers show people want to take their little kids to the movies. As they should. 
 

If Disney had put Luca out only in cinemas it would have done great. Alas…here we are. 

[marveldcfox]

The first trailer made Free Guy look like a BOMB, but Reynold's social media marketing and the later trailers /TV spots created a strong impression. The reviews also were great, which boosted the buzz. Who knew this would be the surprise box office hit of the summer and beat bigger easier selling titles.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, marveldcfox said:

Who knew this would be the surprise box office hit of the summer and beat bigger easier selling titles.

@EmpireCity

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Studios skipping theaters or offering day and date are the reason for that lack of a breakout hit.  Mainly due to probably being afraid of bad PR. 

If anything, PP’s numbers show people want to take their little kids to the movies. As they should. 
 

If Disney had put Luca out only in cinemas it would have done great. Alas…here we are. 

I mean, $14M for a movie that was dirt cheap to make isn't going to move many needles either way but the lack of big grossers for movies aimed at that demographic when other types of movies have done just fine (some even with simultaneous releases) won't give studios much confidence about going theatrical only for their kiddie titles. I know plenty of people who still won't take their very young kids to many public places because of the complete lack of vaccine options for them at the moment. That more than anything else is what has factored into the studio's decisions. Pretty easy to see.

 

Adult-targeted titles aren't having it much better either. Respect is looking at a 60% drop in its second weekend according to Deadline despite an A CS grade and no simultaneous release and that's exactly the kind of movie where its main demographic isn't likely to rush out on opening weekend.

 

Edited August 21, 2021 by filmlover

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Studios skipping theaters or offering day and date are the reason for that lack of a breakout hit.  Mainly due to probably being afraid of bad PR. 

If anything, PP’s numbers show people want to take their little kids to the movies. As they should. 
 

If Disney had put Luca out only in cinemas it would have done great. Alas…here we are. 

Luca became a phenomenon on D+, not only it debut pretty close to Soul (another smash), but manage to keep on those heights for weeks.

 

I though if they put in on theaters exclusively, maybe it would debut with only 25-30M like Disney expect, but i wouldn't be surprised with 5-6x multiplier because people really loved this movie, despite everyone expecting it to be low tier Pixar before release.

[TwoMisfits]

21 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Studios skipping theaters or offering day and date are the reason for that lack of a breakout hit.  Mainly due to probably being afraid of bad PR. 

If anything, PP’s numbers show people want to take their little kids to the movies. As they should. 
 

If Disney had put Luca out only in cinemas it would have done great. Alas…here we are. 

 

If it opened at $50M, I'd agree with you...but it didn't...even Space Jam 2's numbers weren't close to what "normal kid movies" make in the summer...

 

I mean, a terrible Toy Story 4 made $434M (opening to $120M) in 2019's summer...

An awful Lion King reboot made more...

HTTYD 3 was considered almost a bomb for only making $160M ($55M OW)...as was Pets 2 for only making $158M ($46M OW)...and if we throw in Detective Pikachu as another "board certified bomb", that made $144M off a $54M OW...

(All Domestic Only Numbers)

 

I guess the biggest summer bomb was Angry Birds 2, which made $41M (off a $10M OW)...the budget was $65M and it made $147M WW, but it was a bomb...

 

Now, consider this summer's kid movies and tell me folks want to take their little kids to the movies...we're calling Angry Birds 2 level movie performances as "really good and indicative that parents want to take their kids to the movies"...

 

(And yes, I skipped the biggest summer bomb, UglyDolls, b/c that released so early and did so badly, it didn't make it to the summer season in any real theatrical numbers...but that was STX not knowing when kids are in school and when they aren't...and when you let Avengers just win")...

Edited August 21, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

If it opened at $50M, I'd agree with you...but it didn't...even Space Jam 2's numbers weren't close to what "normal kid movies" make in the summer...

 

I mean, a terrible Toy Story 4 made $434M (opening to $120M) in 2019's summer...

An awful Lion King reboot made more...

HTTYD 3 was considered almost a bomb for only making $160M ($55M OW)...as was Pets 2 for only making $158M ($46M OW)...and if we throw in Detective Pikachu as another "board certified bomb", that made $144M off a $54M OW...

(All Domestic Only Numbers)

 

I guess the biggest summer bomb was Angry Birds 2, which made $41M (off a $10M OW)...the budget was $65M and it made $147M WW, but it was a bomb...

 

Now, consider this summer's kid movies and tell me folks want to take their little kids to the movies...we're calling Angry Birds 2 level movie performances as "really good and indicative that parents want to take their kids to the movies"...

 

TS4 and TLK were well-received by audiences though, also with much more pre-release hype than Paw Patrol and were appealing even to older audiences, as was Dragon, and Pets 2 was a sequel to a huge hit. DP also hit big with a niche in gamer/Pokemon fan crowd. I think this is more comparable to Angry Birds 2 in the breadth of the appeal. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

TS4 and TLK were well-received by audiences though, also with much more pre-release hype than Paw Patrol and were appealing even to older audiences, as was Dragon, and Pets 2 was a sequel to a huge hit. DP also hit big with a niche in gamer/Pokemon fan crowd. I think this is more comparable to Angry Birds 2 in the breadth of the appeal. 

 

And Angry Birds 2 was a bomb placed after so many summer movies, parents had no money left...so, it's the exception that proves the rule...

 

If you look at "summer spend" (throwing in Dora and Ugly Dolls and yet giving 20-25% of each kid-skewing movie's revenue to childless adults), you have $800M-$1B DOM in kid/family movie theatrical revenue missing in 2021 from 2019...I'd have to pull out a calculator and do some Math, but it's down A LOT more than what non-kid skewing movies are...I'd say it's down about where senior-level skewing movies are...

 

PS - Of course, now I may go back to 2018 and 2017 b/c of curiosity to see if it's missing just as much:)...

[DAJK]

Lol Reminiscence is in 13th place in Canada. Protege 8th. Paw Patrol beat Free Guy yesterday. Night House is only 2K behind Protege. Suicide Squad passed Jungle Cruise total. 
 

Even the French dub of Paw Patrol is higher than all other openers.

[DAJK]

Interesting tidbit, it looks like British Columbia is the strongest region in Canada for Shang Chi (especially Vancouver). Large Asian population here, so I guess that’s not surprising. Curious to see how it plays out at the theaters I’m tracking over the next few weeks.

[titanic2187]

Wow at that 100% Friday bump of FG, in normal year, I would even predict a week-to-week gain in 4th week due to Labour Day but since SC will be there to steal the screen and spotlight, I should downplay a bit my hope to 110m total. 

 

Glad to see a great 2nd week hold after so many terrible hold throughout summer. With this, I can say FG is the first surprise hit since DS. 

[Felandria]

Even with these numbers, I don’t know what Disney Springs was thinking giving Paw Patrol full showtimes in the 500+ seat theater.

 

They’re showing it at 10PM in that auditorium, I think they sold one ticket for for it yesterday at that time.

 

I mean, nothing is gonna fill it, but surely they could be showing Jungle Cruise in that slot instead.

 

As for Free Guy, it must be said that, above all else, this is a BIG win for theatrical comedies.

[ThomasNicole]

51 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

If it opened at $50M, I'd agree with you...but it didn't...even Space Jam 2's numbers weren't close to what "normal kid movies" make in the summer...

 

I mean, a terrible Toy Story 4 made $434M (opening to $120M) in 2019's summer...

An awful Lion King reboot made more...

HTTYD 3 was considered almost a bomb for only making $160M ($55M OW)...as was Pets 2 for only making $158M ($46M OW)...and if we throw in Detective Pikachu as another "board certified bomb", that made $144M off a $54M OW...

(All Domestic Only Numbers)

 

I guess the biggest summer bomb was Angry Birds 2, which made $41M (off a $10M OW)...the budget was $65M and it made $147M WW, but it was a bomb...

 

Now, consider this summer's kid movies and tell me folks want to take their little kids to the movies...we're calling Angry Birds 2 level movie performances as "really good and indicative that parents want to take their kids to the movies"...

 

(And yes, I skipped the biggest summer bomb, UglyDolls, b/c that released so early and did so badly, it didn't make it to the summer season in any real theatrical numbers...but that was STX not knowing when kids are in school and when they aren't...and when you let Avengers just win")...

I mean, TS4 have 97% on RT, 84 on metacritic, A on CinemaScore, great audience reception online and 3.61x multiplier after opening with gigant 120M.

 

You can call this everything but terrible.

[Cmasterclay]

We used to do Candyman in the bathroom instead of Bloody Mary as kids and everyone I know watched the original. However, this is a plurality black urban area I am talking about so I'm sure kids in Des Moines have never even heard of the movie, so I fully admit I'm probably overindexing it big time. Still woulda done at least 20 in regular times tho.

[Justin4125]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

 

I mean, a terrible Toy Story 4 made $434M (opening to$ 120M) in 2019's summer...

An awful Lion King reboot made more...

HTTYD 3 was considered almost a bomb for only making $160M ($ 55M OW)...as was Pets 2 for only making $158M ($ 46M OW)...and if we throw in Detective Pikachu as another "board certified bomb", that made $144M off a$ 54M OW...

(All Domestic Only Numbers)

 

I guess the biggest summer bomb was Angry Birds 2, which made $41M (off a$ 10M OW)...the budget was $65M and it made$ 147M WW, but it was a bomb...

 

Toy Story 4 was terrible? It wasn't my cup of tea, but it was clearly a quality film. I just checked it has ridiculously good reviews from both critics and audiences, you can't just write that off because of a personal bias (which is obvious given that you prefaced Toy Story and Lion King with "terrible" and "awful", but did not comment on the quality of movies like pets 2 and angry birds 2....)

 

Also most of those movies, while not all big hits, were at least solid at the domestic BO. It would be a pretty big stretch to call any one of those a bomb. Yes, Pets 2 and HTTYD made less than their predecessors, but that is not enough to justify the bomb moniker (which takes into account other factors like a film's budget)

 

Lastly, as others have pointed out, Paw Patrol should not be compared to the films you listed. It has far less four quad appeal, and a smaller budget, compared to each of those titles. Its relative success is what people have been commenting on, I find it difficult to see how this movie would have played much better during normal times (though I can't say that with confidence, I'm not the target demo)

Edited August 21, 2021 by Justin4125

[dudalb]

What happened with Reminesence  will probably just  confirm Jackman's decision to concentrate more on his stage work; his Music Man revival Opens on Broadway early next year.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I'll be surprised if Encanto still comes out this year. That vaccine pass is going to kill family movies for the next few months. And thanks to ScarJo they can't do a dual release either. If it remains in November, they'll likely give it the 45-day window that a lot of movies these days come with. It didn't affect Free Guy, so it shouldn't affect Encanto.

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

F9 audience for Paw Patrol...in family form...

 

"Diversity demos were 35% Latino, 32% White, 13% Black, 10% Asian/other. Best markets for Paw Patrol were in the mid and South-west as well as Canada which we hear is overindexing."

Almost as good a diversity breakdown as Don’t Breathe 2, which is still the best of the year I think I with 30/30/30. 
 

 

Just back from The Night House and it has some really great scares. I got a few “hairs standing up” moments. I can see why America gave it a C-, they don’t seem to like endings that require some interpretation lol.