Weekend Thread (11/12-14) | Eternals 7.82 Fri, Clifford 4.22

[Daxtreme]

Amazing week-end, loving the numbers across the board   

 

Legs are back on the menu boys!!

[EmpireCity]

24 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Low key one of the better weekends of the pandemic box office. Great holds for everything, a mid-sized family opener, and three movies doing relatively well in the new version of "platform" release. Some foundational health returning to the box office, even if the ceiling is still hurting bad. 

 

Absolutely, and this is showing in the data across the board and is the most important thing for long term health of the industry.

 

The see it after a few weeks crowd (usually older) is starting to show up again.  What these movies need is time to breathe and not have their legs cut off prematurely.  The even more encouraging thing is that NTTD goes on digital for rental last Tuesday and it didn't affect the theatrical legs at all.  

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Absolutely, and this is showing in the data across the board and is the most important thing for long term health of the industry.

 

The see it after a few weeks crowd (usually older) is starting to show up again.  What these movies need is time to breathe and not have their legs cut off prematurely.  The even more encouraging thing is that NTTD goes on digital for rental last Tuesday and it didn't affect the theatrical legs at all.  

 

 

Yes, it is very good to see movies developing relatively normal legs again. The issue is movies making a minimum enough money on OW to not get shunted out of theaters and onto VOD/bargain bin like Last Duel, Respect, Soho, etc. Richard and Gucci both need at least 12m OW for this to happen.

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Yes, it is very good to see movies developing relatively normal legs again. The issue is movies making a minimum enough money on OW to not get shunted out of theaters and onto VOD/bargain bin like Last Duel, Respect, Soho, etc. Richard and Gucci both need at least 12m OW for this to happen.

If tracking holds, neither will accomplish this (at least for the 3 day in the latter's case; the 5 day should be 15 minimum)

Edited November 14, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

House of Gucci has sold a solid number of seats near me, but the catch is that the overwhelming majority of them are for Tuesday or Wednesday. Gaga's fanbase should help this avoid going as low as the other adult drama nonstarters of the year have, even if it's gonna be lucky to make even a fraction of A Star Is Born's total overall.

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Belfast is considered one of the Best Picture frontrunners. Not too much of a surprise its PTA was solid (for a sorta wide releasing indie in the pandemic era, that is).

Haven't seen the movie but its RT score and MC average rating doesn't scream a winner,  if so, Belfast will be the second worst reviewed BP winner in the past 10 years. And PG-13 film seldom win the final prize. Only GB and the artist achieved that in the past decade. I wish they bring back platform release as soon as possible. Losing Arclight cinema probably is too much to bear for indie market.     

  

2 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

My thoughts as well. I was surprised at the takes of an inflated Friday since I (and presumably others) didn't have Veterans day off, so the 4 day weekend angle always seemed weird to me.

Luckily Friday number wasn't inflated heavily, they look terrible as a inflated figures.  

 

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

Funny data point: Dune is still following meticulously NTTD's legs. It's been consistently ca. 4% short from NTTD's legs. At the end of 2nd weekend -4.2%, 3rd -4.1%, 4th (now) -4.0%. I've been waiting when Dune starts to drop a but further, but haven't happened yet. IF this would continue, it would mean Dune finishing 2.85x -4.1% ~ 2.73x OW ~ $112m.

Funny enough, Dune will back to theater exclusive after 30 days in release, which is about when NTTD moves to PVOD. Maybe this bold well for Dune legs up until NWH,  

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Saturday surge prove that the Friday was more like a just normal Friday than like a semi-Saturday.  

As expected from the historical data I would say

[Legion Again]

OW — Venom LTBC 90M

2nd wknd — SC 34.7M

3rd — SC 21.7M

4th — SC 13M

5th — SC 6.1M

6th — FG 5.1M (SC has now dropped below FG’s weekends)

7th — FG 4.1M

8th — FG 2.26M

9th — Croods2 1.8M

10th — Croods2 1.8M

11th — Croods2 1.7M

12th — Croods 2 2.1M

13th — Croods 2 1.7M  
 

NTTD slightly  missing 6th weekend. V2 very very close to 7th weekend record, seems poised to take 8th I’d say

Edited November 14, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[SpiderByte]

I've seen Belfast and it's definitely got what it takes to be a winner. When it gets ninated it'll benefit a lot from the post nomination boost.

 

[RRA]

4 hours ago, von Kenni said:

 

If this holds, much more than I was expecting and great result at this point.

But remember to quote a local, it’s not that popular. It’s simply the new Pacific Rim

[von Kenni]

I just realized the $6.8m OS now was this weekend, not for week (was wondering that something is off...). It actually looks like Dune has a great shot to make the $400m WW now. Quite probable, actually.

 

WW stands at $351 now. Adding +$17m dom ($110m run.. though might even get millions over that) +$20m more from current OS markets +$12m from Aus, NZ, Vietnam (BR2049 numbers) = $400m!

 

I think dom & existing OS will squeeze some extra millions more there and then Aus, NZ, Vietnam don't even need that BR2049 level performance to get to the 400.

[Flopped]

5 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Belfast opening PTA is so much better than Spencer although Spencer look more accessible by marketing. Spencer debut scale was a bit too wide and too fast. 

 

 

 

KStew is total box office poison outside of Twilight. Snow White & The Huntsman did well but that was sold on Charlize's Evil Queen character. Everything else has bombed. 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

If tracking holds, neither will accomplish this (at least for the 3 day in the latter's case; the 5 day should be 15 minimum)

From the House of Gucci thread: it has 4 days of promo coming this week, including 5 different talk shows. Should help with awareness. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

NTTD is looking for a 2.85x legs by end of its run, which is about the same as Spectre in 2015. I am surprised by the same level of hold between both movies since Spectre had the advantage of being closer to both Veteran Day and Thanksgiving yet NTTD somehow overcome those disadvantage..  

Lack of usual competition, helping even more in Europe.

[Legion Again]

V2 beat SC 6th weekend raw with a lower % of OW, and on track to win 7th with a very similar % of OW.  Look like dipping back into rotten really helped its legs 

[charlie Jatinder]

Eh. This weekend is coming from deflated last weekend by Eternals release + holiday benefit on FRI. 

Pretty bad weekend otherwise because the main film is doing bad. Doesn't matter what holdovers do as they are pretty much done now. 4-5-6M weekend are trinkets.

[Hilderic]

8 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Belfast opening PTA is so much better than Spencer although Spencer look more accessible by marketing. Spencer debut scale was a bit too wide and too fast. 

 

And despite solid numbers, TFD will likely be the lowest grossing Anderson's film since Fantastic Mr.Fox, signaling the tepid recovery of indie markets. Just realised Moonrise Kingdom did 45m in 2012, what a crazy gross for an indie film

 

Belfast is a crowd-pleaser (it won the People's Choice Award at TIFF). Spencer, despite the mainstream subject matter, is an art house oddity.

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Eh. This weekend is coming from deflated last weekend by Eternals release + holiday benefit on FRI. 

Pretty bad weekend otherwise because the main film is doing bad. Doesn't matter what holdovers do as they are pretty much done now. 4-5-6M weekend are trinkets.

 

Agreed, we're stuck in a sucky Top 10 and overall DOM box office haul again...about $10M than the Sept "same supers 2nd weekend set up" did, but $10M total DOM growth in 2 months after getting over the last Covid cliff isn't great...

 

It would be nice if Ghostbusters + Encanto plus all the Thanksgiving openers and the holiday could get the overall total DOM BO to break $130M for a weekend...that's the next recovery goal, since Venom got it to $129M...

[Fielding]

2 hours ago, Hilderic said:

Belfast is a crowd-pleaser (it won the People's Choice Award at TIFF). Spencer, despite the mainstream subject matter, is an art house oddity.

Spencer is just plain bad.

[marveldcfox]

14 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:

V2 beat SC 6th weekend raw with a lower % of OW, and on track to win 7th with a very similar % of OW.  Look like dipping back into rotten really helped its legs 

Rotten. It's powah.