Ocean's Eight | June 8, 2018 | WB | Gary Ross directing, Bullock, Blanchett, Hathaway, Rihanna, Bonham Carter, Kaling, Paulson and Awkwafina. Social Media Embargo up

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Webslinger said:

Somehow, despite being an enormous fan of Carol - it nearly took Best Picture on my personal 2015 ballot - I just now realized that this film is the reunion between Cate Blanchett and the chronically underrated Sarah Paulson. *squee!*

I'm so glad that People v O.J. finally gave her the breakthrough she needed to land more high-profile work (this, The Post, Glass). Now if she would only leave the decaying American Horror Story (but she won't because of her loyalty to Ryan Murphy).

[Noctis]

Anything below $30m OW would be disappointing for me. 

[La Binoche]

Below $40M would be a disappointment. 

[Barnack]

22 hours ago, La Binoche said:

Below $40M would be a disappointment. 

Not sure because at 39.2m it would come with the non sense biggest opening weekend in the franchise history click bait "news", but I would say below 35m would be specially 30m would feel low. ( 40m now is 28.2m in 2001 dollar to give a reasonable comparable and they didn't start playing movies Thursday 4:00 pm back then and could easily go over 4.0x)

 

Magnificant 7 achieved 34.7m with 3,647 screen and that was with mostly just one quadrant, with a 81% audience over 25, 60% male and a lot on the back of Denzel/Pratt and co. (60% of audience saying they were there because of the cast) power.

 

This franchise is arguably quite bigger, more recent but with still more than a decade break and feel like it could score among the female under 25 demo as well and not be as limited:

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Ocean's Eleven	WB	$183,417,150	3,075	$38,107,822	3,075	12/7/01
2	Ocean's Twelve	WB	$125,544,280	3,290	$39,153,380	3,290	12/10/04
3	Ocean's Thirteen	WB	$117,154,724	3,565	$36,133,403	3,565	6/8/07

Adjusted for ticket inflation:

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Adj. Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Ocean's Eleven	WB	$293,804,700	3,075	$61,672,700	3,075	12/7/01
2	Ocean's Twelve	WB	$183,895,600	3,290	$57,752,800	3,290	12/10/04
3	Ocean's Thirteen	WB	$155,979,300	3,565	$48,107,800	3,565	6/8/07

 

Adjusted for actual inflation OW

Ocean 11: 54m

Ocean 12: 52m

Ocean 13: 44m

 

 

30m on over 4,000 theater with absolutely 0 competition would be quite the setback a 33% drop from the least popular entry, the movie can live along Incredibles 2 / Jurassic World if it is well received obviously and leg out, but if is not well received it could be strong competition for it because those are appealing to virtually everyone.

 

 

Edited June 4, 2018 by Barnack

[Krissykins]

13 hours ago, La Binoche said:

Below $40M would be a disappointment. 

Not really when it’s tracking at $30m

[Jonwo]

16 hours ago, A2k Rex said:

Mummy released this weekend last : 31.7 ow, 80.2 dom = 2.53x

I think 35*2.7 = 94.5 is around the least O8 will do. If it has positive wom then 40 ow/120 dom.

 

No clue about the OS prospects but if it does sub-200 ww (don't think it's getting released in China) is a sequel feasible?

The Ocean's films did quite well OS so I imagine WB is expecting $100-150m OS

[Barnack]

34 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Not really when it’s tracking at $30m

Box office pro has it at:

6/8/2018

Ocean’s 8

$45,000,000

 

Same for deadline tracking saying some firm has it at 30m some other as high as 45m with numbers really close to Ghostbuster:

https://deadline.com/2018/05/rihanna-anne-hathaway-oceans-8-box-office-opening-projection-1202393228/

 

In overall audience tracking in definite interest and first choice, Ocean’s 8’s respective scores of 43 and 6 are very close to Ghostbusters’ numbers (44,5) and ahead of The Heat (33,5),Spy (37,3) and Girls Trip (34,5).

 

The r-rated Heat opened at 39m with like 1,000 less theaters, it would be easy to see why someone would be disappointed with this going lower than that.

Edited June 3, 2018 by Barnack

[KeepItU25071906]

34 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Box office pro has it at:

[Arlborn]

When are we getting reviews?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

When are we getting reviews?

Tuesday.

 

Also @CoolEric258 has started the trend of using avatars of the actresses so join us or else you are an MRA.

[Eric Loves Rey]

Just now, filmlover said:

Tuesday.

 

Also @CoolEric258 has started the trend of using avatars of the actresses so join us or else you are an MRA.

I'm a visionary.

 

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

When are we getting reviews?

Apparently midnight on Tuesday according to @Alli

[baumer]

On 02/06/2018 at 9:18 PM, harrycaul said:

If that's the budget I can't imagine this not being very profitable when it's all added up. Participations will be quite high, I'm sure, but still plenty of money to go around.

 

70 million seems really reasonable for a film with this many actors in it.  

[baumer]

I see a domestic tally of 200 and a WW total of at least 350.  This is going to be profitable, imo.

[Premium George]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

I see a domestic tally of 200 and a WW total of at least 350.  This is going to be profitable, imo.

$250m would be good for thinking about a sequel. $350 would be very good.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

I see a domestic tally of 200 and a WW total of at least 350.  This is going to be profitable, imo.

That franchise always achieved to do 2.5 it's dbo (and got close to 3.0).

 

I can see it being more domestic heavy (feel more like a straight comedy maybe and no Pitt/Roberts type), but it should do 50/50 at least right ? If that goes to 200m it should do it oversea also for 400m.

 

1 hour ago, Premium George said:

$250m would be good for thinking about a sequel. $350 would be very good.

350m that Murder on the Orient express success level, while being I would imagine more domestic heavy, a 250m would be quite good.

 

Using a recent example that is somewhat similar in cost and participation level, say the Hanks/Greengrass, 60m Captain Phillips. They had no gross dollar participation and were starting to get bonus around 120m WW, raising to make a bit over 50% of the profit if the movie was a hit (I would imagine that kind of near 50/50 split if the movie is a hit would be similar on this movie, it does seem standard many movie seem to do that).

 

Captain Philipps 92.5m budget for marketing is probably quite similar.

 

Captain Philips movie was estimated to make at those different performance level:

 

At 200m WW (85m/115m)

232.98m in revenues with 55m in profits (25m toward the talent, 31.28m studio), 13.4% ROI

 

At 235m WW (100/135)

268m in revenues, 84 million in profit, 40m to the talents, 44m to the studios, 16.4% ROI

 

353m WW (150 dbo / 203 intl)

360.65m in revenues and almost 160m in profit, with 77.42m in profits going to the studios with 80.45m going to the talent, 21.5% ROI

 

In reality the movie did around 219m WW, 107/111 and overperformed a little bit on home video for a better than anticipated at that level of performance 275m revenues for it is life time and a 50m profit for the studio.

 

Remove 10m for those profit figure for the 70m instead of 60m budget and I imagine it will look like that, probably start to look good financially around 200 and nice success unqualified success around 220-240m.

 

Edited June 4, 2018 by Barnack

[Hathawayfan]

This movie is coming out in perfect timing. With the me too campaign, audiences demanding diversity on the big screen, people demanding actresses to play more leading roles than supporting. Very relevant with current social movements. With all that being said, I predict falling a bit short opening weekend at 37 million. I feel like it will have strong word of mouth and that will lead in having strong legs throughout its theatrical run. 

[Lordmandeep]

Will see if sandra still has the pull with casual audiences.

[Hatebox]

Posters popping up around London. Some of the worst 'here's a bunch of actors who clearly aren't in the same room' photoshopping ever, makes it look really cheap.

[aabattery]