The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

On second look, this looks worrisome, the above two had 1st 24 hours doing 10% or more of weekend. IYKWIM.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Using 37% approx, gives $7.5mn for Thursday night and $3.5mn for Friday. Say another $3.5mn after opening day. That gives $14.5mn after 17 hours.

Using 18% gives $9mn for Thursday, $4.5mn Friday and say another $4mn after Friday. That gives $17mn after 20 hours.

 

This aligns well, separated by $2.5mn in 3 hours difference, say $16-17mn after 20 hours and $18-19mn Approx full day one.

 

After considering few factors and actually seeing theatre wise gross, I up my Endgame projection to $37mn Approx, taking 40% of $15mn reported sale of AMC in 24 hours. Also, that will give around $25mn for Force Awakens and $14mn Approx for Infinity War.

 

First 24 Hours estimated Sales.

1. Avengers: Endgame: $37mn Approx
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens: $25mn Approx
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker: $18mn Approx
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Avengers: Infinity War: $14mn

This looks believable. I suppose with presales starting so far out chains will be a much higher %. However I only cover 75-80% of Cinemark screens, so perhaps up my estimate to $11 min, $5.5, $5 and perhaps @keysersoze123 by a similar ratio. That will get $22 million rather than $18 million. Although I suppose reserved seating theaters would naturally have a much larger portion of presales so hard to say exactly how much to adjust.

Edited October 23, 2019 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

This looks believable. I suppose with presales starting so far out chains will be a much higher %. However I only cover 75-80% of Cinemark screens, so perhaps up my estimate to $11 min, $5.5, $5 and perhaps @keysersoze123 by a similar ratio. That will get $22 million rather than $18 million. Although I suppose reserved seating theaters would naturally have a much larger portion of presales so hard to say exactly how much to adjust.

damnit. let's see what @keysersoze123 number are.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Previews

AMC - 218824/761727 (it translates to about ~$3.3m if we assume 10-15% of tickets are kid tickets. )

 

SW9 OD

AMC - 116889/988785 (around $1.7m)

That's $8.5mn worth Thursday and $4.5mn Friday. Say another $4.5mn after that. 17.5-18mn in 27 hours.

 

@Menor I think Cinemark might be overperforming for now as you mentioned you have only 80-85%. Besides ideally Cinemark should be half of AMC so even that match up. I think 18 will be ok for 24 hours.

[Boxofficerules]

Anything for this weekends movies?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

10/23/2019 Update #2

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	1587	2808	$16.94	$28,389.50	56.52%	(+) 143	(+) $2,601
Friday	1703	5117	$14.62	$25,991.25	33.28%	(+) 243	(+) $3,598
Saturday	1538	5117	$14.62	$22,119.50	30.06%	(+) 336	(+) $4,785
Sunday	487	4895	$14.53	$7,015.25	9.95%	(+) 131	(+) $1,862
Total	5315	17937	$15.71	$83,515.50	29.63%	(+) 853	(+) $12,846

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's $8.5mn worth Thursday and $4.5mn Friday. Say another $4.5mn after that. 17.5-18mn in 27 hours.

 

@Menor I think Cinemark might be overperforming for now as you mentioned you have only 80-85%. Besides ideally Cinemark should be half of AMC so even that match up. I think 18 will be ok for 24 hours.

Hey this is only for reserved shows. Plus AMC seem to randomly remove shows sold out and so there is a delta between numbers I report and complete number. It could be skewed for a mega ticket sellers. I hope Wang can provide us a number soon.

 

Also some reserved thaters error out. But that is under 2%. But those shows could be mostly sold out. Once Frozen is out and I have the numbers at least I have another big movie to track. We need more data before confirming it. But I would say you must be right in this being below SW7.

Edited October 23, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's $8.5mn worth Thursday and $4.5mn Friday. Say another $4.5mn after that. 17.5-18mn in 27 hours.

 

@Menor I think Cinemark might be overperforming for now as you mentioned you have only 80-85%. Besides ideally Cinemark should be half of AMC so even that match up. I think 18 will be ok for 24 hours.

Only thing is @keysersoze123 number is not 100% of AMC either. So it just depends on how much coverage they have.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

I forgot to post this yesterday. But I guess it still kind of counts as first day of sales. Figure I'd keep this to comp for future big Christmas releases. 

 

CINEPLEX BANQUE SCOTIA MONTREAL

 

STAR WARS : THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - THURS DEC 19 2019

 

Regular (Fan Event)

5:00pm - 167/226

Regular

8:00pm - 168/314

8:30pm - 87/163

11:30pm - 5/314

11:59pm - 0/163

Regular 3D

7:00pm - 127/347

7:30pm - 82/390

10:30pm - 11/347

11:00pm - 0/390

UltraAvX 3D

6:00pm - 249/378

9:30pm - 223/378

IMAX 3D

6:30pm - 293/343

10:00pm - 252/343

Edited October 23, 2019 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[SchumacherFTW]

BFI IMAX in London are screening every 3.5hrs from 00.01 Dec 19th through to a 2000 show on Dec 24th

[keysersoze123]

26 minutes ago, Menor said:

Only thing is @keysersoze123 number is not 100% of AMC either. So it just depends on how much coverage they have.

As I posted earlier, there are non reserved shows plus 2% of shows dont return data and I think they are sellouts. On top of that some theaters seem to remove shows that are sold out. That is hard to rationalize. So this could be like 90% of overall data at best for normal movies and for mega blockbusters could be even slightly lower.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-58 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	253	10431	52004	41573	20.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 16

Total Seats Added Today: 3843

Total Seats Sold Today: 1661

 

===

 

Another great day for Skywalker. Still too early to make any calls but it's pace continues to be great. Probably today it will start phasing into its slow period until preview day gets closer.

[filmlover]

The Wrap:

 

$8-9M each for Black & Blue and Countdown

 

https://www.thewrap.com/the-current-war-finally-enters-theaters-on-quiet-box-office-weekend/

[MattW]

Is there a thread for the boxofficemojo update? 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl252151297/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs

 

No more calendar view, at least not that I can see.  

All time records split into multiple tabs, not sure if anything is missing yet.

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2019 by MattW

[TalismanRing]

23 minutes ago, MattW said:

Is there a thread for the boxofficemojo update? 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl252151297/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs

 

No more calendar view, at least not that I can see.  

All time records split into multiple tabs, not sure if anything is missing yet.

 

 

Calendar

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/calendar/?ref_=bo_nb_di_tab

 

I think Latest Int'l w/e are new - or at least finally being updated

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/?ref_=bo_nb_cso_tab

 

I can't find studio info  and studio names are no longer clickable

 

Franchise, Cast & Company info are now on the side and click to IMDB Pro... which sucks

 

And yet they're still doing dumb ass updating for Int'l numbers

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl4123887361/weekend/

Aug 8-11	25	$449	-80.9%	-	-	-	$17,723,546	16
Oct 3-6	39	$163	-	-	-	-	$13,978,434	24

 

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2019 by TalismanRing

[el sid]

1 hour ago, MattW said:

Is there a thread for the boxofficemojo update? 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl252151297/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs

 

No more calendar view, at least not that I can see.  

All time records split into multiple tabs, not sure if anything is missing yet.

 

I wanted to ask that too. I liked the old layout way better. But what I like is that a lot more countries appear now (International) but so far it's chaotic - only the Top 5 of week 42 are listed with the #5 earning 46 US$ e.g. I hope they will update it, then this would be a fine thing.
The release schedule works now (on the right site and above -> Calender), did you mean that with calender view?

Edit: At least they finally updated the International gross (total number) for several titles...

Edited October 23, 2019 by el sid

[DAJK]

NO I HATE THE MOJO UPDATE. BRING BACK THE OLD FORMAT  

 

But in all seriousness, could someone create a thread detailing how to navigate/use this new version?

[Xftg123]

I can't even find the Actors, Studios in terms of Market Share. They got rid of the All Time Box Office Records for the remainder months and holidays, so we can't even see that either.

 

All the Box Office Data for actors, directors, producers, etc is all on IMDB Pro.

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, MattW said:

Is there a thread for the boxofficemojo update? 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl252151297/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs

 

No more calendar view, at least not that I can see.  

All time records split into multiple tabs, not sure if anything is missing yet.

 

Ugh.  I don't think data is missing didn't see the other posts, but it's now might be scattered all over the place and some of it isn't grouped the way it used to be.  Just means having to re-learn how to access various things.

 

I've been keeping an eye on cumulative grosses, including sorted by month and I finally found it sort of.  I think.

 

Just gonna be a pain to learn to navigate the new system.

Edited October 23, 2019 by Porthos

[DAJK]

UGH I've spent 7 years navigating BOM I know it like the back of my own hand. But seriously

 

Where's the inflation adjustor? I know it's not 100% accurate but it's a fun toy to do comparisons with. What about actor/director grosses etc.? These are all things I technically don't need in my life, but that I've taken for granted and I WANT THEM BACK.

 

This is worse than that time BOM shut down in 2014 for a few days and everyone thought it was gone for good.