Official Oct 5 to Oct 7 Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Venom - 80M (205M WW OW); A Star is Born - 42.6M

[dxmatrixdt]

Friday to Friday declines % avg. tickets purchased

 

-37% Smallfoot

-58% Night School

-40% House/Clock

-36% ASF

-30% Nun

-62% Hell

-22% Crazy

-58% Predator

-46% WBR

+22% Searching

-36% Peppermint

-53% Christopher Robin

-24% Mi6

+63% Incredibles

-33% Unbroken

-20% Ant-Man

 

Saturday jumps should be about the same as last week.  +80% Smallfoot maxing out at +90% House/Clock.

All the rest around +55% including Night School.  ASF likely going to push +40% with Hellfest while the rest go to that 55 spot.

 

Sunday drops between -20% and -30%, and or +10% over Friday's #s on the holdovers.

Edited October 6, 2018 by dtairdryZid

[nevermore]

Great numbers for Venom. A lot of people underestimated the interest for this, which was obviously high based on the trailer views and likes.

[RichWS]

Self-centered enough to be convinced Mendelson keeps going with the "superhero fatigue" thing just to annoy me.

[WrathOfHan]

49 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

So this is coming in for a PTA around 6.5k this weekend. The Wife did 6.7k on its third expansion with 30 more theaters, and Leave No Trace did almost 11k in 12 fewer theaters. The 600 theater expansion on the 19th will definitely be the widest it goes.

42 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Will Gerard beat Jamie tho?  

 

[Johnny Tran]

I'm glad people are paying less attention to obvious clickbait articles. All these dumb "Catwoman 2.0" comparisons.  Fuck these little shitty blog sites,  go see the movie and judge for yourself..   and that's what happened.  

[LegendaryBen]

17 minutes ago, dtairdryZid said:

Friday to Friday declines % avg. tickets purchased

 

-37% Smallfoot

-58% Night School

-40% House/Clock

-36% ASF

-30% Nun

-62% Hell

-22% Crazy

-58% Predator

-46% WBR

+22% Searching

-36% Peppermint

-53% Christopher Robin

-24% Mi6

+63% Incredibles

-33% Unbroken

-20% Ant-Man

 

Saturday jumps should be about the same as last week.  +80% Smallfoot maxing out at +90% House/Clock.

All the rest around +55% including Night School.  ASF likely going to push +40% with Hellfest while the rest go to that 55 spot.

 

Sunday drops between -20% and -30%, and or +10% over Friday's #s on the holdovers.

How did you calculate this?

[Rumpot]

People get so rooted in their original prediction that once it's clear they are wrong the just nudge in that direction but try to stay as close to their original prediction as possible.  This is why you had people on this forum and Gitesh, etc still saying 50-55M even after the 10M Thursday. 

 

Once you realize you are wrong about something you will do better forgetting your original prediction and looking at it again fresh.

 

People are off Monday and this IS getting good WOM/buzz.  85M+ in my mind is quite likely and higher possible if it plays well with kids/matinees which it seems to be in this area at least

[Pinacolada]

Get that fucking money Tom!!!!

[Pinacolada]

4 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I'm glad people are paying less attention to obvious clickbait articles. All these dumb "Catwoman 2.0" comparisons.  Fuck these little shitty blog sites,  go see the movie and judge for yourself..   and that's what happened.  

That comparison was first made (and only made really) by Danielrpk on twitter. I've been saying it and I'll say it again. That dude sucks.  He purposely broke the embargo to say all those shitty things about Venom, then made a cheeky excuse of "oops." That guy SHOULD NOT be allowed to early screenings ever again. I would fucking blacklist him

[dxmatrixdt]

11 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

How did you calculate this?

take the Friday per screen average of this Friday, Fri(1) and divide it by last Friday's per screen average, Fri(2).  then subtract by 1 and multiply by 100%.

 

Edited October 6, 2018 by dtairdryZid

[filmlover]

Next week I'm predicting First Man to open with $25M (for a third place launch), Goosebumps with $15M, Bad Times at the El Royale with $10M.

[CJohn]

Higher OD than Doctor Strange  

[Nova]

2 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

That comparison was first made (and only made really) by Danielrpk on twitter. I've been saying it and I'll say it again. That dude sucks.  He purposely broke the embargo to say all those shitty things about Venom, then made a cheeky excuse of "oops." That guy SHOULD NOT be allowed to early screenings ever again. I would fucking blacklist him

The reality is that you would think Comic Book fans would ignore people like that since theyre wrong more times than not. Then again I guess an opinion cannot technically be wrong. My point is that comic book fans should stop holding what these guys say as if it's 100% fact. These bloggers only want clicks and acting like they have scoops or saying exaggerated things about films gets them clicks. I mean this guy has been endlessly trashing Dark Phoenix and talking about awful it is when the finished product isn't even done yet. Anyone who knows anything about film making knows that a movie months before release isn't always the movie that gets released. Editing things in or taking things out, effects etc make a difference. But would saying that get someone like Danielrpk clicks? No. talking about how AWFUL something is will though. 

 

Lastly, we actually don't know if that Danielrpk guy even attends any screenings what so ever.

 

 

Edited October 6, 2018 by Nova

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Next week I'm predicting First Man to open with $25M (for a third place launch), Goosebumps with $15M, Bad Times at the El Royale with $10M.

Shame that Bad Times at the El Royale looks to be a casualty of a jam packed October 

[B D Joe]

On the same weekend as Blade Runner 2049, Venom is breaking box office records.

[Jonwo]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

I'm thinking Venom will stay at #1 with around $32-34M (and A Star is Born is #2 with around $30M unless it has a crazy hold). WOM isn't great but it's better than the likes of Batman v Superman, Fantastic Four '15, etc.

I think Venom will be 60-65% drop, ASIB I can see having a small drop 

[RealLyre]

 

Sony after seeing Venom's BO 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

Shame that Bad Times at the El Royale looks to be a casualty of a jam packed October 

I'm really looking forward to it but I imagine it doesn't have a very broad audience. The marketing isn't clear as to what the film is about (most likely because they want to keep the twists a surprise).

[dxmatrixdt]

45 minutes ago, dtairdryZid said:

Friday to Friday declines % avg. tickets purchased

 

-37% Smallfoot

-58% Night School

-40% House/Clock

-36% ASF

-30% Nun

-62% Hell

-22% Crazy

-58% Predator

-46% WBR

-36% Peppermint

 

Saturday jumps should be about the same as last week.  +80% Smallfoot maxing out at +90% House/Clock.

All the rest around +55% including Night School.  ASF likely going to push +40% with Hellfest while the rest go to that 55 spot.

 

Sunday drops between -20% and -30%, and or +10% over Friday's #s on the holdovers.

 

updated - # is avg. purchases per theater

4,250	Venom		577.4
3,686	Star/Born		368.8
3,019	Night School		128.1	-56%
4,131	Smallfoot		94.1	-35%
3,456	House/Clock		57.1	-40%
2,408	Simple Favor		48.4	-36%
2,264	The Nun		37.8	-30%
2,297	Hellfest		29.6	-61%
1,466	Crazy		45.4	-22%
1,643	Predator		16.2	-58%
880	White Boy Rick		21.4	-47%
813	Peppermint		17.8	-36%
36	Hate U Give		524
30,349

 

[GraceRandolph]

2 hours ago, Nova said:

Lady Gaga still has fans? 

 

 

@GraceRandolph

If she does then it must be very very small (unlike her honk) given that the woman has been unable to score a hit single since 2013 - hence the sudden career change. 

Edited October 6, 2018 by GraceRandolph