Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

BTAB have 72% female on opening night and still manage a 10.7x for the 3-day.

 

They are being delusional with this range, even their high end require a really low multiplier. 

That was over 2 years ago...which tends to be a lifetime in box office...

 

I mean, since then, we have gotten, lost, and regotten huge movie subscriber bases in the US...and those bases now allow prebuys...that's an effect...

 

But again, we'll see this weekend whether Deadline is out to lunch (like they typically are) or whether they are finally nailing a movie...

 

Since tracking is still such a wide range, $85M doesn't seem out of the range of the possible...not til Friday and Saturday numbers come in... 

[lorddemaxus]

20 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

250

45

400

 

690-700

Just realised that the movie will also release in Japan. Yeah, I would actually go with your OS-China prediction. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

They are probably using the Pirates 5 multiplier, adjusting for the earlier presale start time (6pm plus 5pm expensive fan shows vs 7pm) and the movement towards higher Thursdays...

 

Whether they are right is still TBD, but 59% women for opening night is a largish percentage (especially if you look at the spring 2019 Thursday night opens), so if it continues to skew to women that strongly, it would indicate a "more presale, less walk up" audience for the weekend...

I just really can't see it being that presale heavy. If that was going to happen it should have shown itself on preview night, where its number was at the high end of non-holiday Fandango comps. Also I'm not sure the earlier preview start time makes that massive difference, plus POTC 5 was only 2 years ago. Seems like a definite lowball to me. I mean POTC even had a 78 million 4-day with significantly lower previews, I don't think the factors you mentioned really make up for that preview difference.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

That was over 2 years ago...which tends to be a lifetime in box office...

 

I mean, since then, we have gotten, lost, and regotten huge movie subscriber bases in the US...and those bases now allow prebuys...that's an effect...

 

But again, we'll see this weekend whether Deadline is out to lunch (like they typically are) or whether they are finally nailing a movie...

 

Since tracking is still such a wide range, $85M doesn't seem out of the range of the possible...not til Friday and Saturday numbers come in... 

Yeah $ 85M could happen, it would need to be extremelly frontloaded which i doubt, but could happen

 

$ 73M otherwise...

[Nova]

Shout out to @Litio who got both Aladdin's and Brightburn's preview numbers down!

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

It's a Guy Ritchie directed female skewing family blockbuster. 

 

Anything can happen right now.

 

 

[Jiffy]

Not a bad preview number... but yeah this is all still underwhelming given the potential for this project on paper. 

[DAJK]

Man they really need to put something substantial into November 2019. Even if Frozen 2 makes 600M it'll be a low month.

 

What about that Hanks WW2 movie that was supposed to open in march?

[Nova]

@TalismanRing its cute of you to think that Deadline is gonna update their projections with their early Friday number. You and I both know they're going to cling onto that $75M number even AFTER Aladdin has passed it during the 3-day. 

[sfran43]

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

Just now, sfran43 said:

 

Does this include last Friday’s early access shows?

[WrathOfHan]

50 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

You seen Laddy yet? I'm going tomorrow, but I NEED to know the deets about Friend Like Me.

Not yet, but I'm gonna try seeing it in Dolby on Monday maybe. 

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

Does this include last Friday’s early access shows?

Deadline only said it took it "in previews" as opposed to Brightburn where they said "last night" - so I'd assume so

 

[DisposedData]

10 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Not a bad preview number... but yeah this is all still underwhelming given the potential for this project on paper. 

Yeah it technically should have beaten Beauty and the Beast and I expected it to when it was first announced but considering all the consistent misteps Dinsey has made with this film, this is still a surprisingly good result.

[cookie]

9 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Yeah it technically should have beaten Beauty and the Beast and I expected it to when it was first announced but considering all the consistent misteps Dinsey has made with this film, this is still a surprisingly good result.

I think BatB was too much of a perfect storm for it to be easily replicated though, even if Aladdin was better marketed.

Edited May 24, 2019 by cookie

[DAJK]

Not bad for Booksmart. Might be able to cross 10M for the long weekend, which would be a big win for it (and the studio). 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Today will be another test of how good Pulse is with dailies. At 9AM Aladdin had 38612 tickets sold. Yesterday it added 11-12k or so from 9AM, which would put Aladdin at 50k by the end of the day conservatively (I would expect Friday night to see more late buyers than Thursday, but at least not a drop). This would put the floor for Aladdin at 22 million using Dumbo and Pikachu which were the best-performing of my comps yesterday, with a chance to go significantly higher.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, a2k said:

@Charlie Jatinder got it right and @Porthos again. 

In case folks are not reading the Tracking thread (and shame on you if you're not, BTW ) :

 

4 hours ago, Litio said:

Previews simulation based on fandango's sales (not taking into consideration the hour previews started)
	Aladdin	Detective Pikachu	Dumbo	The Nutcracker
Sales for Thursday	27393	23970	9642	2238
Previews numbers (in millions)	??	$5,7	$2,6	$0,63
Aladdin's previews simulation	~$7m	$6,51m	$7,39m	$7,71m
	Brightburn	Escape Room	The Nun	Overlord
Sales for Thursday	3730	6730	28191	3620
Previews numbers (in millions)	??	$2,35	$5,4	$0,9
Brighburn's previews equivalence	~$900k	$1,30m	$0,71m	$0,93m

 

 

Give @Litio some props as well, IMO.

 

3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Naa. I will say 7 is better.

On 5/23/2019 at 12:20 AM, Porthos said:

Here's what I'm willing to believe/bet on Aladdin.  I think it is performing very well in some areas of the country and very poorly in others.  We've seen this before with other movies, so it's not unheard of.

 

Is Sacramento an over-performing area?  Maybe!  I really don't know. But it doesn't seem too dissimilar with Fandango, which I'm kinda using as a tie-breaker.  But, sure, I could see us over-performing by some percentage.  And before anyone brings up the Cali angle, from what I could tell @FlashMaster659's theater in Ontario, California was doing pretty lousy as well.

 

Looking at my own data and trends, I don't think 7.25m +/- .3m is that unlikely.  If Sacto is right.    But I am overdue for a FB2 sized miss, so if I have one, I have one.  Can't really ask for anything else than that.

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

So comps.  The Pickachu comp is interesting coz I have to factor in lack of matinees along with PLFs.  So pure comp just doesn't work. It had 90 extra minutes of tracking, but also folks would have bought tickets earlier for Pika PIka.   A pure comp gives 7.18m.  Boosting that gives around 7.5m

 

My comps of Venom/JW2/Solo/AM&tW comp to 7.9/8.4/8.3/8.5.  That seems way too optimistic given other folks reports.  FB2 comps to 6.3m.  That's too pessimistic in the other direction, I think.

 

Normally, I'd call for about 8m in previews based on all my comps.  But I think Sacto is over-performing a bit.  So let's say 7.5m +/- .3m.  I just don't have the guts to call for 8m. Not with those other reports out there.

 

If I miss, I miss. But that's what I'm seeing right now.

Should have stuck with my original ad-hoc, as I knew Sacto was over-performing, but just couldn't settle in on a range.  Missed it by .2m to .5m on the last report, but not too bad all things considered with just looking at a home market.  Not good enough for a celebratory gif, however.

 

Hmmm.  But not too bad, either.

 

 

Maybe that is worth a gif after all.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Porthos

[RealLyre]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Umm if you remove all P&A costs I guess, maybe lol 

the home video/Blu-ray and streaming sales will cover most of the P&A costs so you don't need to worry about that. Aladdin will be a success if it can bring back the production budget from the theatrical run.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

 

@Litio  Well done here as well!!! Off by only 25k on a sub 1m preview!