Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[Hades]

Just now, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Wow, Aladdin has a budget of ~185M. Can it make 500M world wide? Definitely seems possible. China will give about 50. If it has a 75M three day, then maybe give it like a 3.5 multiplier to 265M. That would mean 185 from the rest of the world. 

Japan will save the day ...like they did with SOLO last year..

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm going with 580 mil WW now.

220 mil DOM, 30 mil China, 330 mil OS-China.

250

45

400

 

690-700

[Felandria]

Still hoping for a good Thursday number for Booksmart

[kaijukurt]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

$580m would be not be great. 

 

Production budget is $183m. 

 

When it was first announced I just assumed it would do $1bn but when the trailer dropped it quickly became clear that it was unlikely 

 

$580m wouldnt be great, but it would still be a healthy profit...right? 🤔

 

Especially considering that the DOM-OS split looks to be good. 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

That multiple seems way too high for a Live Action remake and a Memorial Day release.

I may have severely underestimated the overseas - China numbers. It just seems that many people expect it to severely underperform. 

[MovieMan89]

MD openers have had weak multis for years, but then again most have been mediocre to poorly received. Hoping WOM for Aladdin is great and it gets close to a 3x off the 4 day. 

[Maxmoser3]

Decent for Aladdin, that preview number should definitely pull in a decent opening. 

[Litio]

Sony Screens Gems/The H Collective has the James Gunn-produced superhero horror pic Brightburn which drew $950K last night from 7 PM shows at 2,257 locations.

[jedijake]

Multipliers off of a 4-day would be closer to 2X.  It's a multiplier from the 3-day that is more reasonably able to get closer to a 3X.

[BoxOfficeZ]

1 minute ago, Litio said:

Sony Screens Gems/The H Collective has the James Gunn-produced superhero horror pic Brightburn which drew $950K last night from 7 PM shows at 2,257 locations.

Considering the budget is like 6 million it'll do just fine. 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

https://deadline.com/2019/05/aladdin-memorial-day-box-office-1202621906/

 

Tracking is between $73M-$85M on Aladdin over the Friday through Monday stretch. Critics are split about the live action reboot of the 1992 Disney classic at 60% fresh. We’ll see if the die-hard Aladdin fans dominate or remain divided as the weekend continues. So far, so good: ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrack exits show general audiences giving Aladdin 4 1/2 stars and a solid 69% definite recommend. Females over 25 lead at 34% (98% positive grade), followed by Females under 25 at 25% (97% grade), Men over 25 at 21% (88%) and Men under 25 at 20% (83%). Parents gave the pic 4 stars after turning out at 12% and Kids under 12 who repped 20% of the crowd and loved it at 4 1/2 stars.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Litio said:

Sony Screens Gems/The H Collective has the James Gunn-produced superhero horror pic Brightburn which drew $950K last night from 7 PM shows at 2,257 locations.

Damn, that's almost exactly what you predicted in the tracking thread right?

[Litio]

Just now, Menor said:

Damn, that's almost exactly what you predicted in the tracking thread right?

Yes. I said ~$7m for Aladdin and ~$900k for Brightburn 😅

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

https://deadline.com/2019/05/aladdin-memorial-day-box-office-1202621906/

 

Tracking is between $73M-$85M on Aladdin over the Friday through Monday stretch. Critics are split about the live action reboot of the 1992 Disney classic at 60% fresh. We’ll see if the die-hard Aladdin fans dominate or remain divided as the weekend continues. So far, so good: ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrack exits show general audiences giving Aladdin 4 1/2 stars and a solid 69% definite recommend. Females over 25 lead at 34% (98% positive grade), followed by Females under 25 at 25% (97% grade), Men over 25 at 21% (88%) and Men under 25 at 20% (83%). Parents gave the pic 4 stars after turning out at 12% and Kids under 12 who repped 20% of the crowd and loved it at 4 1/2 stars.

How are they still going with 73-85 million 4-day??? Also that PostTrack seems like an A/A- Cinemascore, definitely not A+

[wildphantom]

With Rocketman being more adult aimed, do not underestimate the power of the musical multiplier for Aladdin. Providing audiences love the renditions of the songs (the new song really is a belter for musical theatre lovers) this could play really well all summer. 

 

See how the weekend plays out but I’m kind of expecting quite a bit of repeat business for the movie in the coming weeks. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

How are they still going with 73-85 million 4-day??? Also that PostTrack seems like an A/A- Cinemascore, definitely not A+

It’s deadline...

[Krissykins]

9 minutes ago, kaijukurt said:

 

$580m wouldnt be great, but it would still be a healthy profit...right? 🤔

 

Especially considering that the DOM-OS split looks to be good. 

Umm if you remove all P&A costs I guess, maybe lol 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

How are they still going with 73-85 million 4-day??? Also that PostTrack seems like an A/A- Cinemascore, definitely not A+

They are probably using the Pirates 5 multiplier, adjusting for the earlier presale start time (6pm plus 5pm expensive fan shows vs 7pm) and the movement towards higher Thursdays...

 

Whether they are right is still TBD, but 59% women for opening night is a largish percentage (especially if you look at the spring 2019 Thursday night opens), so if it continues to skew to women that strongly, it would indicate a "more presale, less walk up" audience for the weekend...

Edited May 24, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

They are probably using the Pirates 5 multiplier, adjusting for the earlier presale start time (6pm plus 5pm expensive fan shows vs 7pm) and the movement towards higher Thursdays...

 

Whether they are right is still TBD, but 59% women for opening night is a largish percentage (especially if you look at the spring 2019 Thursday night opens), so if it continues to skew to women, it would indicate a "more presale, less walk up" audience for the weekend...

BATB have 72% female on opening night and still manage a 10.7x for the 3-day.

 

They are being delusional with this range, even their high end require a really low multiplier. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by ThomasNicole

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

How are they still going with 73-85 million 4-day??? Also that PostTrack seems like an A/A- Cinemascore, definitely not A+

They're  not-  they're just cutting and pasting earlier predictions.  They do it all the time until the 1pm PST update