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[Mekanos]

After Skywalker we probably won't see a 200 opener for a very long time.

 

It sure as shit isn't gonna be Batman lol. 

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Whats the expected sat jump in july?

Generally not much, but this year has been weird with the Saturdays. Plan for a max of 10% and be surprised if its higher but probably not. 

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

#4 by the end of the year.

First off let's see the final total, yes considering you ranked it as the worst movie this year worse than Hellboy 3 I think just maybe your predictions are smidge biased. 

 

Maybe 4th but assuming Frozen is a lock for 600+ is crazy. Might get there but it needs ALOT

[MikeQ]

It's too early for me to say how frontloaded the weekend will be. Even with a Friday on the low end of RTH's range of 76.5-78.5 million, The Lion King would have the smallest percentage of opening day from Thursday previews for any film that hit 20M+ from previews. On the other hand, it would be more frontloaded than the two closest "family film" comparisons of Incredibles 2 (18.5M in previews) and Beauty and the Beast (16.3M).

 

Ultimately, we don't have a lot of comparisons, as The Lion King is opening considerably larger than most family films, and we don't have a lot of films (of any kind) close to this size that opened in July (you have to go back to 2012, when The Dark Knight opened to $160.9M, and 2011 when Deathly Hallows Part 2 opened to 169.2M).

 

It could be frontloaded over the weekend, and then have gargantuan July weekdays this coming week. *shrug*

 

Peace,

Mike

[Ryan Reynolds]

1 minute ago, Mekanos said:

After Skywalker we probably won't see a 200 opener for a very long time.

 

It sure as shit isn't gonna be Batman lol. 

Skywalker is not guaranteed 200m OW

[Mekanos]

Just now, Ryan Reynolds said:

Skywalker is not guaranteed 200m OW

Yeah, I know, I'm being charitable, lol. This weekend certainly confirms how difficult it is to hit 200.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Mekanos

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

197,200,203 whatever it's awesome and your prediction was incredibly good.

 

@Porthos part of that is due to people hate following this thread creaming themselves at the possibility of it doing "only" 199. Weirdest thing ever.

 

12 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

It's also people jokingly or not wanting this to fail as much as possible too

I'm seeing a bit of a mix myself, but sure that's also a factor.

 

Me?  I'm just seeing TLK come back down to what I more or less expected all along, so I'm mostly just rolling my eyes at the people crowing about it not hitting 200 after all.  At the same time I'm trying to be sympathetic to folks who wanted higher (been there; done that) while reminding them that it's still making a nice pile of money.

 

...

 

Folks like @VenomXXR???

 

Yeah, I got nothing for him. He'll have to work out his issues on his own.

 

(j/k VenomXXR - love ya 😉)

[The Panda]

All this talk about, “It’s still doing great!”

 

But I can’t help but think, could it have done better if the kids had liked it? 🤔 

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[Mekanos]

1 minute ago, The Panda said:

All this talk about, “It’s still doing great!”

 

But I can’t help but think, could it have done better if the kids had liked it? 🤔 

How do we know kids aren't liking it besides the anecdotes of a few BOT posters?

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

And you don't think that assuming Lion King is gonna still hit 600M is equally as biased? 

Close to it yes unless one is delusional. 550+ locked with near 200 OW

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, Mekanos said:

How do we know kids aren't liking it besides the anecdotes of a few BOT posters?

3 and 1/2 Stars On PostTrak from the kids!  That’s the lowest of all the family movies this summer.

Edited July 20, 2019 by The Panda

[ban1o]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I've been thinking of mentioning this.

 

Here is a list of all films that have bowed over 200m on OW:

 

Exactly ONE of them is neither a CBM or SW film. 

 

ONE!!!!

Even expanding that to adjusted numbers doesn't add to the list.  Closest is HP 7 pt 2, and HP was its own beast.

 

Expanding it to $175m (back to unadjusted), you get Incredibles 2 at 182m, and that was CBM adjacent.

 

Whatever TLK's OW number will be will still be historic for a family film.  Just not quite earth shatteringly historic.

 

tl;dr:  200m OW are still rare and practically unheard of outside of CBMs and SW films.  For a family film to do this level of business is great and we shouldn't let high expectations on the part of some to blind us to that.

those non holiday legs for Black Panther though. It's legs were almost as good as Force Awakens lol 

Edited July 20, 2019 by ban1o

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[Barnack]

Just now, Mekanos said:

How do we know kids aren't liking it besides the anecdotes of a few BOT posters?

Comscore after thursday had a good difference between adult (4.5 on 5) and kids (3.5 on 5):

 

ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak numbers from last night are 4 stars for all audiences with parents liking it more than kids under 12, 4 1/2 to 3 1/2 stars. 

 

https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-weekend-box-office-july-records-1202648944/

 

Seem to be working better on those who saw the first one back in the days.

[cannastop]

Kids don't like The Lion King, pass it on.

[Mekanos]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

The PostTrak score said that kids under 12 gave it 3 and a half stars, which is noticeably lower than a lot of other under 12 scores for family movies this summer.  IIRC, Aladdin, SLOP 2, Spider Man, and Toy Story 4 all got at least 4 and a half stars with kids.  Just something worth considering.

 

2 minutes ago, The Panda said:

3 and 1/2 Stars On PostTrak from the kids!  That’s the lowest of all the family movies this summer.

Literally as soon as I hit "Submit Reply" I remembered PostTrak. D'oh.

 

Now I'm even more curious how this run turns out. I don't really have a horse (lion?) in this race. But I do think some of the doomsday narratives from people anticipating/hoping for an underperformance is tiring. 

Edited July 20, 2019 by Mekanos

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, ban1o said:

those non holiday legs for BP though 

What a crazy run. Aladdin's run has been incredible to follow too.

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[cannastop]

Just now, cannastop said:

Kids don't like The Lion King, pass it on.

Kids when the see the new Lion King: