Weekend Thread: Estimates - Angel Has Fallen $21.25M | Good Boys $11.75M | Overcomer $8.20M | The Lion King $8.15M | H&S $8.14M - & $101.8M in China

[John2015]

Look like "Angel has Fallen" will be the most profitable film in the franchise.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/08/ready-or-not-angel-has-fallen-good-boys-box-office-weekend-1202701545/

 

Quote

We hear that the production cost on Angel was lighter than London, $40M net to $60M. There was suppose to be a big plane crash in Angel and that was cut. Foreign sales covered an estimated $30M on the budget as these meat and potato action pics make money abroad

 

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Angel Has Fallen	$20,500,000	—	3,286	—	$6,239	$20,500,000	1	Lionsgate
2	Good Boys	$10,800,000	-50%	3,353	149	$3,221	$41,107,505	2	Universal Pictures
3	The Lion King	$8,700,000	-29%	3,300	-260	$2,636	$511,185,735	6	Walt Disney Pictures
4	Overcomer	$8,200,000	—	1,723	—	$4,759	$8,200,000	1	Sony Pictures
5	Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw	$7,800,000	-45%	3,312	-445	$2,355	$147,361,255	4	Universal Pictures
6	Ready or Not	$7,400,000	—	2,855	—	$2,592	$10,428,148	1	Fox Searchlight
7	The Angry Birds Movie 2	$6,600,000	-36%	3,869	0	$1,706	$27,326,263	2	Sony Pictures
8	Scary Stories to Tell In The Dark	$6,200,000	-38%	2,927	-208	$2,118	$50,689,202	3	CBS Films / Lionsgate
9	Dora and the Lost City of Gold	$5,500,000	-36%	2,843	-892	$1,935	$43,399,953	3	Paramount Pictures
10	Once Upon a Time In Hollywood	$5,200,000	-32%	2,209	-295	$2,354	$123,387,467	5	Sony Pictures
11	47 Meters Down: Uncaged	$3,900,000	-54%	2,883	30	$1,353	$15,315,947	2	Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
12	The Art of Racing in the Rain	$2,100,000	-54%	2,040	-725	$1,029	$21,480,327	3	20th Century Fox
13	Blinded by the Light	$2,000,000	-54%	2,307	0	$867	$8,121,406	2	Warner Bros
14	Spider-Man: Far from Home	$1,700,000	-39%	1,008	-507	$1,687	$379,769,007	8	Sony / Columbia

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	The Peanut Butter Falcon	$3,200,000	1012%	991	942	$3,229	$3,919,349	3	Roadside Attractions
2	Mission Mangal	$670,000	-51%	263	0	$2,548	$2,728,211	2	FIP
3	Yesterday	$430,000	-25%	438	-64	$982	$72,422,160	9	Universal Pictures
4	The Kitchen	$360,000	-84%	620	-2125	$581	$11,662,291	3	Warner Bros.
5	Aladdin	$180,000	-43%	185	-40	$973	$353,839,113	14	Disney
6	John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum	$65,000	-59%	129	-19	$504	$170,791,059	15	Lionsgate
7	Avengers: Endgame	$50,000	-50%	115	-33	$435	$858,238,415	18	Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Tel Aviv on Fire	$60,000	0%	35	4	$1,714	$60,000	4	Cohen Media Group
2	Stuber	$40,000	131%	75	25	$533	$22,345,956	7	20th Century Fox

If baumer reduced his club to $70M, Scary Stories still has a shot...It 2 will probably kill it in 2 weekends...but it does get Labor Day and 2 more weeks of weekdays with folks starting back to college (and that's gotta be prime age demo) to get pretty darn close:)...and even if It 2 kills it, isn't it a pretty empty September for wide releases?  It could just trickle there:)...

Edited August 24, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Webslinger]

I wasn't expecting Angel Has Fallen to hit 20 for the weekend, so I guess there's that.

 

Otherwise, we've got exactly the box office dead zone we were all expecting.

[terrestrial]

Amazon’s Audible Sued By HarperCollins, Penguin Random House And Others Over New Feature

 

https://deadline.com/2019/08/amazon-audible-sued-by-harpercollins-penguin-random-house-and-others-1202703506/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

[Maxmoser3]

Deadline was actually accurate for once! They said $7.9 million OD for Angel yesterday! 

[cookie]

Pretty good holds for most films (though that Good Boys drop is disappointing) given how shit it looked in early estimates. Any reason why TLK had the best drop?

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, cookie said:

Pretty good holds for most films (though that Good Boys drop is disappointing) given how shit it looked in early estimates. Any reason why TLK had the best drop?

Nothing really out to take attention away from its family audience (Angry Birds 2 and Dora are basically nonevents). Probably gonna hold on just fine for the next few weeks considering there isn't a new family movie until Abominable in a month. 

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 Variações is so so good. It is also the first time I look at a Portuguese movie and I don't think "yeah this looks TV-esque". The visual style is terrific and the direction is top notch. Sérgio Praia and Filipe Duarte own those roles. I had chills during the final scene between them. People were tearing up at the ending. The soundtrack was obviously fantastic and I saw it in Dolby ATMOS (first Portuguese movie to be released on the format) for extra greatness. This is gonna be a WOM sensation.  When are you gonna see it?

Edited August 24, 2019 by CJohn

[Moviefanatic]

Hmm maybe Lion King can get to 550+ After all. Nice

[marveldcfox]

Angel has fallen budget is too big for it to actually recover costs let alone make profit. Overseas has to be big.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Angel has fallen budget is too big for it to actually recover costs let alone make profit. Overseas has to be big.

It will be profitable for Lionsgate - whether it is for O/S buyers is another matter.

 

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Angel has fallen budget is too big for it to actually recover costs let alone make profit. Overseas has to be big.

 

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It will be profitable for Lionsgate - whether it is for O/S buyers is another matter.

 

Trade seem to be saying Liongates sold it for around 30M (that sound quite low), considering the franchise track record

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	London Has Fallen	Focus	$205.8	$62.5	30.4%	$143.2	69.6%	2016
2	Olympus Has Fallen	FD	$170.3	$98.9	58.1%	$71.3	41.9%	2013

 

 

Most buyer must be quite safe it is around that cost.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

11 hours ago, filmlover said:

Don't know if this has been shared yet but Variety did their annual report card for the studios at the summer box office.

 

Disney: A for their own movies, F for the Fox films they inherited

Universal: B

Warner Bros: C

Sony: B+

Paramount: C+

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/summer-box-office-analysis-winners-losers-studio-1203300985/

Poor WB.But I guess they didn’t even care for Summer 2019.They have put all of their big guns in The Fall.It 2 and Joker will make a shitload of money with minimal production budgets.Doctor Sleep should also turn in a nice profit for them.

 

2020 is gonna be awesome for them too with BoP,WW84,Tenet,The Conjuring 3 and potential breakouts with Dune,The Witches,Barbie(If It makes it to its release, which is doubtful), Scooby-Doo And In the Heights.

[dxmatrixdt]

Angel Has Fallen looking to get past 40m after weekend #2, to 60m total with the A- cinemascore.  A+ cinemascore with Overcomer should get it to 27m total, but Ready or Not and it's B+ cinemascore will more than likely get to a 30m finish.  

Good Boys same opening as Angel, but 70m finish.

The Lion King 540m, Hobbes & Shaw 166, Scary Stories to 63 from 20 OW, Angry Birds 2 at 45m, Dora 56, 47 Meters 24m, Spider-man at 386m, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood maxxing out at 140m.  

[Avatree]

6 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Angel has fallen budget is too big for it to actually recover costs let alone make profit. Overseas has to be big.

how so?

it is opening a bit less than the previous film, with similar positive reception (if not better), so finish with 55M+ maybe. Similar domestic/overseas split to last one would put it at 180M ww. On a 40M budget how would that leave it in the red?

[MCKillswitch123]

11 hours ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 Variações is so so good. It is also the first time I look at a Portuguese movie and I don't think "yeah this looks TV-esque". The visual style is terrific and the direction is top notch. Sérgio Praia and Filipe Duarte own those roles. I had chills during the final scene between them. People were tearing up at the ending. The soundtrack was obviously fantastic and I saw it in Dolby ATMOS (first Portuguese movie to be released on the format) for extra greatness. This is gonna be a WOM sensation.  When are you gonna see it?

Probably not anytime soon  I guess whenever it comes out on digital.

 

However, I'm glad they made a great Portuguese movie and about one of our greatest music stars of all time.

[marveldcfox]

2 hours ago, Avatree said:

how so?

it is opening a bit less than the previous film, with similar positive reception (if not better), so finish with 55M+ maybe. Similar domestic/overseas split to last one would put it at 180M ww. On a 40M budget how would that leave it in the red?

Budget is 80M

[TalismanRing]

29 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Budget is 80M

We hear that the production cost on Angel was lighter than London, $40M net to $60M. There was suppose to be a big plane crash in Angel and that was cut.

[Firepower]

11 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Angel has fallen budget is too big for it to actually recover costs let alone make profit. Overseas has to be big.

wtf are you talking about, AHF budget is 40 mln, 20 mln less than London. Plus they covered 30 mln of its budget by foreign pre-sales. The trailer didn't even look like it could cost 80 mln, not even close, this is Lionsgate/Millenium action flick, no way they would put this much in it.

Edited August 25, 2019 by Firepower

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

wtf are you talking about, AHF budget is 40 mln, 20 mln less than London.

Deadline said rumors are $40m-$60m

 

So rumored high end is same the as London