THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[IcaroRibeiro]

18 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Towards the bottom of this page: 

 

https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP?ref_=mojo_cso_md#inflation

 

So:

 

1989 - Batman ($91,7M)
1992 - Batman Returns ($98,8M) +7,7% increase
1993 - Jurassic Park ($103,4M) +4,6%
1995 - Batman Forever ($108,9M) +5,3%
1997 - JP2: Lost World ($142,9M) +31,2%
2001 - Harry Potter 1 ($144,8M) +1,2%
2002 - Spider-Man 1 ($180,3M) +24,5%
2006 - Pirates 2: DMC ($187,7M) +4,1%
2007 - Spider-Man 3 ($199,9M) +6,4%
2008 - Dark Knight ($200,4M) +2,5%
2012 - Avengers ($236,9M) +18,2%
2015 - Force Awakens ($268M) +13,1%
2019 - A: Endgame ($357M) +33,2%

 

It took 7 years from SM3 to TFA (increase of 34,6%), so I guess we will have Avengers record beaten in second half of 2020's

Edited December 20, 2019 by IcaroRibeiro

[stuart360]

8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Like I said, oh Deepest of Wangs, we never saw it coming in 2009 either. I mean, we're talking through 2029 here. We should be onto the Endgame equivalent of the next saga in the MCU by then. Why not whatever that film is? You could even feed nostalgia into that one that you couldn't do with the Infinity Saga! RDJ back? Cap returning?! Who knows! 

Or maybe a Harry Potter film with the the OG cast (although Rowling is slowly killing her own franchise, TFA showed us that nostalgia can burn through an overzealous creator).

I'll call it now, we will see a $500m domestic OW by December 30, 2029!

The only film i could possibly see hitting $500mil ow by 2029 would be if Disney halted all Star Wars stuff right now, then brought out 'Episode 10' on Christmas 2029.

[Poseidon]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Like I said, oh Deepest of Wangs, we never saw it coming in 2009 either. I mean, we're talking through 2029 here. We should be onto the Endgame equivalent of the next saga in the MCU by then. Why not whatever that film is? You could even feed nostalgia into that one that you couldn't do with the Infinity Saga! RDJ back? Cap returning?! Who knows! 

Or maybe a Harry Potter film with the the OG cast (although Rowling is slowly killing her own franchise, TFA showed us that nostalgia can burn through an overzealous creator).

I'll call it now, we will see a $500m domestic OW by December 30, 2029!

I don't think so. 

 

We're now pretty much as high as it gets in terms of premium formats generating additional money. 

I feel like we're now at the ceiling of what audiences are willing to pay for a ticket.

[Mekanos]

Harry Potter 9 with the original cast is the only movie I think could legitimately come into spitting distance of the OW record in the next ten years.

 

 

[SoSaysI]

12 minutes ago, ZackM said:

It was at 57% Friday evening.

And the all audience on this one is at 76% and has actually been rising.  Audiences by and large are really liking this it seems like.  

[The Panda]

21 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Trolls definitely trashed TLJ's audience ratings on various websites, but can't blame the trolls for a crappy 2.8 multiplier with Christmas/New Years holiday boost. I think the Skywalker movie has a pretty decent chance of pulling a 3x multiplier and it doesn't even need great WOM to get it. 

It’s also being released a week closer to Christmas which helps its legs and probably dampens its OW

[IcaroRibeiro]

2 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I don't think so. 

 

We're now pretty much as high as it gets in terms of premium formats generating additional money. 

I feel like we're now at the ceiling of what audiences are willing to pay for a ticket.

 

We also have inflation into consideration. From 2008 to 2018 ticket inflation was 26,8%

 

So the same amount of tickets enough to make around 395M today will be enough to challenge 500 MI in 10 years (if ticket inflation stay around the same of this decade)

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

 

So:

 

1989 - Batman ($91,7M)
1992 - Batman Returns ($98,8M) +7,7% increase
1993 - Jurassic Park ($103,4M) +4,6%
1995 - Batman Forever ($108,9M) +5,3%
1997 - JP2: Lost World ($142,9M) +31,2%
2001 - Harry Potter 1 ($144,8M) +1,2%
2002 - Spider-Man 1 ($180,3M) +24,5%
2006 - Pirates 2: DMC ($187,7M) +4,1%
2007 - Spider-Man 3 ($199,9M) +6,4%
2008 - Dark Knight ($200,4M) +2,5%
2012 - Avengers ($236,9M) +18,2%
2015 - Force Awakens ($268M) +13,1%
2019 - A: Endgame ($357M) +33,2%

 

It took 7 years from SM3 to TFA (increase of 34,6%), so I guess we will have Avengers record beaten in second half of 2020's

 

Potter 7.2 gets chopped? Ouch lol

[The Futurist]

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Harry Potter 9 with the original cast is the only movie I think could legitimately come into spitting distance of the OW record in the next ten years.

 

 

Nah, again the circumstances of Endgame s OW are so, so unique.

The insane rush factor was due to the most incredible cliffhanger ever and people didn't want to get spoiled because of our modern uber connected world.

Inflation will beat Endgame s OW, nothing else.

Edited December 20, 2019 by The Futurist

[ViewerAnon]

10 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Websites with grading systems are changing their rules to protect the big brands and franchises of the entertainment industry.

It's a conspiracy.

Agreed, it's so unfair that you need to have seen the movie to grade the movie, and that they have the audacity to only let you grade it once!!

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Harry Potter 9 with the original cast is the only movie I think could legitimately come into spitting distance of the OW record in the next ten years.

 

 

 

I dont think so as i would think a possible Harry Potter 8 would behave like DH2: A super-frontloaded and massive Opening Day and then harsh Saturday and Sunday drops.

 

Remember, Harry Potter has possibly the most rabbid rush-fanbase besides only Star Wars (and Twilight back in the day).

[MikeQ]

49 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Was ow record ever an 38% increase?

Yes, thereabouts. In 1983, Return of the Jedi's $23M opening represented a 60% increase from the previous record holder (Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan).

 

In 1989, Batman's $40.5M opening represented a 37.4% increase from the previous record holder (Ghostbusters II).

 

In 1997, The Lost World: Jurassic Park's $72.1M opening was a 36.6% increase from the previous record holder (Batman Forever).

 

On a related note, the longest period of time an opening weekend record has stood (going back to 1975) is essentially 4 years. So, the longest opening weekend record holders since 1975 have been from:

• 1997 to 2001 — record set by The Lost World: Jurassic Park in 1997 held until 4 years later in 2001 when Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone set the new record
• 2002 to 2006 — record set by Spider-Man in 2002 held until 4 years later in 2006 when Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest set the new record

At this point, I have to imagine that Endgame's opening weekend record will persist for many years to come, and easily be the longest serving record holder. But it will be surpassed eventually, through inflation and other factors we may not be able to predict (e.g. Thursday "previews" may start earlier and earlier, as they have been doing somewhat already, so that we basically have a full-fledged four day weekend). And we can't always predict what will become the next big thing, and spawn a highly anticipated sequel, etc.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

[Legion Again]

10 years is a long time. Venom is correct that 10 years of inflation and increasingly frontloaded moviegoing habits will make it easy to beat Endgame’s OW by 2029 — unless theatregoing collapse, which honestly I think is a very real possibility. But just extrapolating relatively normal drops in per capita attendance, there will be multiple 400M+ in the late 2020s 

[Cappoedameron]

8 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Harry Potter 9 with the original cast is the only movie I think could legitimately come into spitting distance of the OW record in the next ten years.

 

 

The Cursed Child is absolute ass and no one wants to see that trash be made into a film.

Edited December 20, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[ChiSoxRox]

Wikipedia has the highest opening weekend progression table that seems to have vanished from BOM.

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Yes, thereabouts. In 1983, Return of the Jedi's $23M opening represented a 60% increase from the previous record holder (Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan).

 

In 1989, Batman's $40.5M opening represented a 37.4% increase from the previous record holder (Ghostbusters II).

 

In 1997, The Lost World: Jurassic Park's $72.1M opening was a 36.6% increase from the previous record holder (Batman Forever).

 

On a related note, the longest period of time an opening weekend record has stood (going back to 1975) is essentially 4 years. So, the longest opening weekend record holders since 1975 have been from:

• 1997 to 2001 — record set by The Lost World: Jurassic Park in 1997 held until 4 years later in 2001 when Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone set the new record
• 2002 to 2006 — record set by Spider-Man in 2002 held until 4 years later in 2006 when Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest set the new record

At this point, I have to imagine that Endgame's opening weekend record will persist for many years to come, and easily be the longest serving record holder. But it will be surpassed eventually, through inflation and other factors we may not be able to predict (e.g. Thursday "previews" may start earlier and earlier, as they have been doing somewhat already, so that we basically have a full-fledged four day weekend). And we can't always predict what will become the next big thing, and spawn a highly anticipated sequel, etc.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Unless every cinema is 100% packed for all 4 days, does that even count really?. I mean its simply a case of people going on Thursday instead of Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. If Thursday showings didnt exist, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday numbers would probably be slightly higher.

[baumer]

I don't see anything beating and games opening weekend for a very very long time. I know the opening weekend record goes down frequently but as some others have mentioned in here, Star Wars is at an end phase one for Marvel is at an end and end game destroy the opening weekend by more than a hundred million. There's just simply nothing coming out in the foreseeable future that is going to have that kind of gravitas. Unless you think Avatar can muster a $360 mill opening weekend what else is in the pipe right now within the next five years that has any kind of shot?

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

 

So:

 

1989 - Batman ($91,7M)
1992 - Batman Returns ($98,8M) +7,7% increase
1993 - Jurassic Park ($103,4M) +4,6%
1995 - Batman Forever ($108,9M) +5,3%
1997 - JP2: Lost World ($142,9M) +31,2%
2001 - Harry Potter 1 ($144,8M) +1,2%
2002 - Spider-Man 1 ($180,3M) +24,5%
2006 - Pirates 2: DMC ($187,7M) +4,1%
2007 - Spider-Man 3 ($199,9M) +6,4%
2008 - Dark Knight ($200,4M) +2,5%
2012 - Avengers ($236,9M) +18,2%
2015 - Force Awakens ($268M) +13,1%
2019 - A: Endgame ($357M) +33,2%

 

It took 7 years from SM3 to TFA (increase of 34,6%), so I guess we will have Avengers record beaten in second half of 2020's

8 1/2 years

 

3 1/2 for AEG over TFA (AIW did it in 2 1/2 un-adjusted)

 

Not really a pattern.   Looking at the list all you need is a mega franchise or IP  peaking.

 

If Avatar  2, 3 or 4 hit big and keep opening bigger and bigger maybe A5 if it's a conclusion will it in whatever year it comes out.

 

Or it could be Avengers 7 or 8 - Secret Wars with the return of a few original Avengers.

 

Or an unknown property or film series that explodes and it's sequels just keep getting bigger.  Studios are staking out dates so far in advance though it's hard to have a surprise and I don't see a potential new mega franchise in the near future..

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't see anything beating and games opening weekend for a very very long time. I know the opening weekend record goes down frequently but as some others have mentioned in here, Star Wars is at an end phase one for Marvel is at an end and end game destroy the opening weekend by more than a hundred million. There's just simply nothing coming out in the foreseeable future that is going to have that kind of gravitas. Unless you think Avatar can muster a $360 mill opening weekend what else is in the pipe right now within the next five years that has any kind of shot?

Matrix 4 🙂

[Zakiyyah6]

44 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

I told a few days ago that TROS might be the opposite of TLJ: hated by critics, loved by the audience. 

 

Sounds like I was right:

 

 

 

 

 

It's not HATED by critics. Those are called mixed reviews. MIXED. Why do people act like there is no difference between CATS reviews and TROS when there clearly is. Why do people act like a mixed critical reception doesn't exist? It does exist, it happens all the time. The internet's black and white views on critical reception is bizarre.