THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I really hate Grace Randolph. 

I don’t feel any which way about her. Sometimes she makes a good point. Most of the time she makes some awful points. But that’s a typical BOT member 

[cory]

Sub-AOTC adjusted domestic and WW (it won’t hit #4 WW for 2019). They should have taken another year to crack the story. 

[pepsa]

 

15 minutes ago, a2k said:

 

At the end of 2005 this was the all time world wide chart. https://web.archive.org/web/20051214031026/http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

 

ROTS was #11 (today BP is #11), Clones was 24 (Captain Marvel currently) and TPM was 5 (AIW).

 

Rank	Title	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	Titanic	Par.	$1,845.0	$600.8	32.6%	$1,244.2	67.4%	1997
2	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$1,118.9	$377.0	33.7%	$741.9	66.3%	2003
3	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$976.5	$317.6	32.5%	$658.9	67.5%	2001
4	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$926.3	$341.8	36.9%	$584.5	63.1%	2002
5	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$924.3	$431.1	46.6%	$493.2	53.4%	1999
6	Shrek 2	DW	$920.7	$441.2	47.9%	$479.4	52.1%	2004
7	Jurassic Park	Uni.	$914.7	$357.1	39.0%	$557.6	61.0%	1993
8	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$876.7	$262.0	29.9%	$614.7	70.1%	2002
9	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	NL	$871.4	$314.8	36.1%	$556.6	63.9%	2001
10	Finding Nemo	BV	$864.6	$339.7	39.3%	$524.9	60.7%	2003
11	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$848.5	$380.3	44.8%	$468.2	55.2%	2005
12	Spider-Man	Sony	$821.7	$403.7	49.1%	$418.0	50.9%	2002
13	Independence Day	Fox	$817.0	$306.2	37.5%	$510.8	62.5%	1996
14	E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial	Uni.	$792.9	$435.1	54.9%	$357.8	45.1%	1982
15	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	WB	$789.8	$249.5	31.6%	$540.3	68.4%	2004

 

Also look at prod budget to ww ratio. Home market was also more alive.

May 19, 2005	Star Wars Ep. III: Revenge …	$115,000,000	$108,435,841	$380,270,577	$848,998,877
May 16, 2002	Star Wars Ep. II: Attack of…	$115,000,000	$80,027,814	$310,676,740	$656,695,615
May 19, 1999	Star Wars Ep. I: The Phanto…	$115,000,000	$64,810,970	$474,544,677	$1,027,044,677

 

 

I love that methode! also don't forget that frozen is heading towards 1.4B + so nr 11 would be 1.4B most likely.

 

Other methodes I also use to check how well something did it take the average and de median (number 5-6 dvided by 2) and compare the movie number vs those. So you get at rought idea how it stacked against the top of that era. Median I use if there are to many outliers etc.

 

Example: 1023.9m = mean and 922m median.

Today: 1965m = mean and 1859m as median.

 

First off interesting to see that we have a lot more varience now in the top 10 then we had 15 years ago. Probably because we have more markets now that can make a difference in the total.

 

What we see from this is that ROTS was 17.5% lower than  top 10 average and  8% lower than the median.

Now a days you would need 1611m between 1710m to be the same distance away from the top 10 mean/median.

So thing did get a lot top havier than 2 decades ago.

If you take out EG and Avatar you get (and using frozen2's 1.4B):  1681m average and 1588m and for an ROTS preformance you would need 1386 - 1460m today closer to the 11th place today.

[redfirebird2008]

17 minutes ago, Thelasttroll said:

ITs 179M according to deadline

 

Requires a 12.6% drop on Sunday. Pretty ambitious prediction on the part of Deadline. Disney was probably too conservative, but I’m expecting 177-178. 

[Thelasttroll]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

We’ve simply had a ton of Star Wars recently and the new movie just didn’t have the same hook as ROTS had. That was the one the fans had really been waiting for. 
I think it’s irrefutably a different situation. 
 

Plus if you threw in two spin-off Star Wars films opening between AOTC and ROTS, who knows how ROTS might have done. There is such a thing as too much SW - which even Iger has acknowledged. 
 

If it’s attended as well as ROTS I can’t see what the problem is. 
 

The anomaly is that TFA was so damn huge! We’re judging everything against that when it’s the biggest movie in US history.  Which had a cliffhanger that went into TLJ.  
 

The mighty Endgame that opened $100 million bigger still couldn’t touch it.  

I know people who had never seen Star Wars before who went to see the TFA. Took their friends, their family. It was a cultural event. 
TROS is merely a major movie event, joining a few others we’ve had this year. People have got used to Star Wars being a constant thing now. It hasn’t helped TROS that it didn’t have the same hook TFA, RO and TLJ had. 
 

See where we are in a week or so. 
 

Why was it I expected the opening to drop 20% from TLJ domestic, as did many others - yet now it’s happened it’s being treated like some kind of shock and disaster?  

There have been far more mcu movies than Star Wars in the same span 

[Thrylos 7]

If TLJ was more liked by the fans it would have done around 1.5 billion and TROS similar numbers worldwide, great numbers but not earth shattering ones. The problem is that the new characters are nobodies as actors and charisma vacuums, the exact of opposite of the first Star Wars films that had charismatic young actors like Ford, Williams, Fisher and gigantic legends like Cushing and Guinness. Also TFA was so bland, Lucas had the right idea for a beautiful universe in the prequels even if he fucked up other aspects.

[John Marston]

Please don’t tell me there are people who think these numbers are anything but a disaster? 

[pepsa]

20 minutes ago, Nova said:

I don’t feel any which way about her. Sometimes she makes a good point. Most of the time she makes some awful points. But that’s a typical BOT member 

Wait I can name so many members I trust more than her to make boxoffice predictions. Same with projections once a movie is out.

Edited December 22, 2019 by pepsa

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Just now, pepsa said:

Wait I can name so many members I trust more than her to make boxoffice predictions than her. Same with projections once a movie is out.

I still laugh at her Homecoming predictions saying what a disappointment it was when it hadn't even been released in Japan or China yet. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Please don’t tell me there are people who think these numbers are anything but a disaster? 

 

I don’t see how we can call it disaster when we know it will have a holiday boost for the legs. Not like it’s going to have a 1.99 multi like BvS. Tend to think TLJ’s 2.8 multi is the low end. So we’re talking $490M on the low end. Hard to call this a disaster IMHO. 

[Zakiyyah6]

CATS is not The Greatest Showman and neither was Mary Poppins Returns. I wish that scared box office reporters would stop acting like every musical released has that reception and thus we should wait and see. That was a fluke reception. It's alright to say that CATS is a flop.

[The Stingray]

lol Disney really dropped the ball trying to course correct and please everyone. Can't help feeling a bit of schadenfreude.
 

[Noctis]

The $198m OS weekend for Star Wars...is less than the $200m of Breaking Dawn Part 2 seven years ago...in 2D.

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I don’t see how we can call it disaster when we know it will have a holiday boost for the legs. Not like it’s going to have a 1.99 multi like BvS. Tend to think TLJ’s 2.8 multi is the low end. So we’re talking $490M on the low end. Hard to call this a disaster IMHO. 

Very easy to call 490 a disaster, since it would be. If this can leg out to over TLK that saves some face but still indicates some big issues.

Edited December 22, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[TwoMisfits]

Lack of sell outs with most showings not filling the crappy seats even in prime time

Lack of round-the-clock showings OW

Lack of late night sales (with every night falling off from early day estimates)

 

All of these speak to a lack of excitement for this TROS open even in the domestic market.  And if you can't get folks excited, and it becomes "like Church" when it comes to seeing this - like, I have to do it b/c it's the end after 4 decades...not I want to do it b/c I'm so DAMN excited for this ending...well, you have an OW like the one we got, and we have some very uncertain legs coming...

 

I said earlier...Disney terms may blunt this movie's legs...I can believe small and midsize theaters still feel burned by TLJ's empty 3rd-4th weeks and Solo's empty every day, and they will look to squeeze this movie over the 4 weeks before dumping since it probably is returning the lowest % revenue to them of each movie still around.  

 

So, this movie may also pay for the sins of its prior entries and for the strictness of Disney's terms...I mean, 70% if they break the "keep it 4 weeks in the biggest theater" term is punitive to these tiny theaters...so I can believe they will drop showings/screens on all the other screens to try to make sure they can stretch the audience out for 4 weeks...

 

In the past, TLJ had all its OW screens pre-booked for the 4 weeks...right now, my locals are only booking through New Year's Day...and even then, they have only given 1 or 2 screens each (vs the 4-4.5 they gave OW)...they are definitely still waiting to see if some other movie like Jumanji/Frozen/Knives Out/Spies in Disguise/Little Women will make them more money...

Edited December 22, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Cmasterclay]

Random question - is there not a big Best Movie of the Decade list/vote for BOT? If not, maybe I should get on that.

[CoolioD1]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Random question - is there not a big Best Movie of the Decade list/vote for BOT? If not, maybe I should get on that.

there is it's starting up after the 2019 list.

[Nova]

20 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Wait I can name so many members I trust more than her to make boxoffice predictions. Same with projections once a movie is out.

Sorry it was a bad joke  I don’t ever agree with Grace about the box office. Sometimes I agree with her when it comes to a movie’s quality. 

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

there is it's starting up after the 2019 list.

Oh no. The Top 25 is the populist awards body, the Boffies are for the arthouse snobs. Ready for Avengers: Endgame to be named the best film of the 2010s

[The Stingray]

Downright happy Cats bombed. Hooper feels like an all-around obnoxious dude.