Weekend Thread | Hotel 3 $44.1 Skyscraper 25.4, Ant Man’s size does matter with $28.8M

[lilmac]

I feel like the Rock is becoming oversaturated. He should take it easy and be more selective with his projects. 

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, Blankments said:

YO, just posting in this thread to recommend a movie. I know @CoolioD1 and @Spagheditary saw it and both loved it. LEAVE NO TRACE: really great drama that's haunting with two really fantastic central performances and great direction from Debra Granik, who did Winter's Bone. If you've ever remotely liked Ben Foster, you need to see it and preferably with as little knowledge as possible going in. @baumer @4815162342 @Water Bottle @Chewy @Cmasterclay

Adding the movie to my watchlist, it’s expanded about 45 minutes from me, I’ll wait a week or so and see if it expands closer.  

 

Plus I need to catch WYBMN before it leaves and Mamma Mia 2 on opening weekend (preferably Thursday night!)

[Johnny Tran]

Ant-Man and the Wasp was pretty awesome.   I want to see more Marvel solo projects and less team up stuff at this point. 

[dxmatrixdt]

can't believe Skyscraper did not open above the 40 million Safe House opened with.

[JB33]

Oof. AMatW is in for an ugly drop.

[OdinSon2k14]

17 minutes ago, 5xmatrixdu said:

can't believe Skyscraper did not open above the 40 million Safe House opened with.

Funny thing is, The Rock has a lot of...uh...male admirers 🤣? Among journalists? Nothing wrong with a little man love, but when you're gushing over another guys physique 🤣? Its stretching it a bit too far...

 

Anyway, if you read some of their new articles, which are borderline love letters, it's as if the article was written weeks ago, with the assumption that Skyscraper would be dominating this weekend 🤣! 

 

This was a planned coronation 🤣! The next Arnold! The biggest movie star in the world! Nowhere in these articles do you see any possiblity of the coronation and parade being CANCELED 🤣!

 

So you have all these gushing articles out, for a guy that is starring in an embarrassing flop 🤣!

[Mojoguy]

I feel like the Rock is becoming oversaturated. He should take it easy and be more selective with his projects.

The Rock wouldn't have done Jumanji if he was more selective.

[La Binoche]

8 hours ago, ZackM said:

Why is "fun" in quotes?

Sex? 

[MattW]

I haven't been keeping up with this weekend thread so maybe someone else already posted this, but removing previews Spiderman homecoming dropped 56.50% while if Ant-Man does 28.0 this weekend it will have dropped 56.46% after removing previews.  The harsher drop is pretty much entirely due to the larger preview share.

[dxmatrixdt]

boxofficeguru does a pretty good job with the write ups in the archives.  they don't store their forecast articles, but they usually show OW predictions at the end of the article.  Sometimes if something like War/Apes did mediocre with 55m, they will write it as a decent opening etc.  at the bottom it will mention 'way off from the overoptimistic prediction of 80m'.

Edited July 15, 2018 by 5xmatrixdu

[La Binoche]

6 minutes ago, 5xmatrixdu said:

boxofficeguru does a pretty good job with the write ups in the archives.  they don't store their forecast articles, but they usually show OW predictions at the end of the article.  Sometimes if something like War/Apes did mediocre with 55m, they will write it as a decent opening etc.  at the bottom it will mention 'way off from the overoptimistic prediction of 80m'.

 

Is there no way to find or access them? 

[dxmatrixdt]

39 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Is there no way to find or access them? 

not that I can think of.

[dxmatrixdt]

Friday's top 10 made 50 million, so today should see 60 million or more.  

[Zakiyyah6]

3 hours ago, MattW said:

I haven't been keeping up with this weekend thread so maybe someone else already posted this, but removing previews Spiderman homecoming dropped 56.50% while if Ant-Man does 28.0 this weekend it will have dropped 56.46% after removing previews.  The harsher drop is pretty much entirely due to the larger preview share.

Every film has previews.

[George Parr]

1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Every film has previews.

That wasn't really the point. The post talked about the preview share. What matters isn't that all movies have previews, but what kind of share the previews had for the opening weekend. The bigger the share for the OW, the bigger of an impact it should have on the second weekend drop.

 

Thing is, "smaller" openings with sizeable previews should see a bigger drop, because their previews were bigger relative to their OW-number than they were for bigger openers. Ant-Man 2 had 11.5m in previews, which is 15.2% of the OW. In comparison, Spider-Man: Homecoming made 15.4m in previews, which is ~13.2% of he OW total. Thor 3 made 11.8% of its OW with the previews, Black Panther 12.5% (which might be deflated due to the holiday weekend), with Infinity War at 15%.

 

2-3 percentage points difference may not sound like much, but it adds up. Doesn't change that Ant-Man's performance is kind of pedestrian (for a Marvel movie), but the point in general is very much valid, the bigger the share of the previews on the OW, the worse it should be for the second weekend drop (in percent).

[Valonqar]

There's no Rock saturation. Skyscraper simply looked too generic and like something you catch on TV. Not a must-see especially in the season with better options. It's like Solo bomb. It looked so generic and passable that even SW markets didn't bother. Just a proof that you cannot slap a brand or star name on everything and expect to do big business. AM&TW has similar problem - it doesn't seem essential after BP and AIW so it isn't breaking out and competition is strong. Still, it has more dedicated fans and it's an absolute hit in Asia (unlike SW that only has traditional markets and nothing else) and that means room for growth. Also, it's yet to open in many other markets due to World Cup delay. 

[MagnarTheGreat]

(click to enlarge)

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp (Jul. 2018)
First Domestic Weekend: $75,812,205 (2015's Ant-Man Weekend 1 +32.48%)

Second Domestic Weekend (Deadline projection July 14, 2018): $28,100,00 (2015's Ant-Man Weekend 2 +12.81%); AMatW (2018) projected cume lead over AM (2015): $25,865,364 on Day 10

 

Once the dailies for AMatW drop below the first Ant-Man's that lead that's building up will begin to erode.

 

Marvel sequel multipliers as shown in the above chart across nine movies have ranged from 2.28 (CA: Civil War) to 2.73 (CA: The Winter Soldier). 

By sequel multipliers ($75,812,205 * x = dom. gross):

* 2.28 (CA: Civil War) = $172.9M
* 2.49 (average MCU sequel multiplier) = $188.8M
* 2.73 (CA: The Winter Soldier) = $207.0M

 

Even the average MCU multiplier just gets AMatW ahead of the original domestically by about $8.6M. And there's not quite been the buzz evident that Winter Soldier, Guardians 2, Infinity War, and Ragnarok got (the four highest sequel performers with 29-30 days to reach 90% of their final total and the above MCU sequel average multipliers). In its favor is that it's the sequel to the original Ant-Man which did well with 37 days to 90% and a 3.15 multiplier, which is around the third/fourth highest origin/first entry in the MCU for those benchmarks.

Edited July 15, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat

[dxmatrixdt]

Jumanji and Rampage were pretty backloaded with the uneven Thursday to Friday jumps for big event action pics.  I think the mediocre numbers are from the movie itself when comparing with the openings of Tomb Raider, Maze Runner and Pacific Rim 2.  Having Dwayne Johnson in the film I think is just made the movie what it is.  The concept/vision is what sells these action movies and the Rampage concept vs Skyscraper concept vs Mission Impossible concept did not seem to favor Skyscraper this time around.  If it was made 5 years from now, or 25 years ago, maybe it would be written differently.  One word action titles have always had their own world and the large budget in Skyscraper shows the confidence they have in these pictures despite so many flops. 

Edited July 15, 2018 by 5xmatrixdu

[The Futurist]

3 Dwayne movies in 7 months.

[grey ghost]

5 hours ago, 5xmatrixdu said:

can't believe Skyscraper did not open above the 40 million Safe House opened with.

Safe House was near Denzel's prime. When he was benefitting from Training Day's after glow.