Flop Weekend Thread: Top 5 Weekend Actuals - TSLOP2 $46.65M | Dark Phoenix $32.83M | Aladdin $24.68M | Godzilla KOTM $15.45M | Rocketman $13.82M

[MrFanaticGuy34]

29 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Illumination films account for a huge amount of Universal's profits from films. But yes, I'm sure they're just fine with a potentially 50-60% drop domestically for what they probably figured would be a franchise that could sustain itself at least as well as Despicable Me.

 

They don't have anything to worry about, just look at how Dreamworks is still a titan of the computer animation industry.

True. Though the thing with Dreamworks nowadays is that, they sadly never had a $200M+ DOM-hit in 7 years after Madagascar 3. So it will be interesting to see how the next Dreamworks-original ”Abominable” (which is coming out in September) will do.

[ThomasNicole]

Yikes, really bad numbers for both

 

This sequences of underperformances will only help TS4 though (let’s pretend it need to be helped).

 

Aladdin also should pass $ 300M easily with those great legs plus underperformance from other movies.

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

but why is everybody automatically assuming it's going to drop 50 or 60% from the first film? You guys are just basing this off of it doing half about the preview number was? The first film came out at the very beginning of July when all schools are out. This one is coming out at the beginning of June when all the schools are still in.

This is definitely not true. Schools around here have been out for the past week.

Edited June 7, 2019 by filmlover

[Ms Lady Hawk]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This is definitely not true. Schools around here have been out for the past week.

Schools on the east coast do not close for the summer until mid to late June. 

[Marathon]

39 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Let’s relax a little bit lol.

 

UK box office last year had the most actual audience admissions since 1971. 

It's more about the fragility of the overall system. When you rely on a handful of performers to hold the thing together, any significant downward trend in those could set a cataclysmic chain reaction. Lucas & Spielberg talked about this a few years back. Basically, the mega-blockbuster model relies on massive financial risks in budgeting & marketing, and since less (certain type of) mid-budget movies and such get made, the mega-blockbusters will get even more resources allocated to them, increasing the risks in case of a bomb or even an underperformance. Sure, as long as enough people go see these type of movies, the system will seem pretty robust, but it's not what I'd call a healthy situation in the long run.

[UserHN]

So, is there a SLOP2 Total Dom < TS4 OW Dom club?

[Biggestgeekever]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

but why is everybody automatically assuming it's going to drop 50 or 60% from the first film? You guys are just basing this off of it doing half about the preview number was? The first film came out at the very beginning of July when all schools are out. This one is coming out at the beginning of June when all the schools are still in.

The preview number plus the results in the UK suggesting that domestically, yeah, plus it faces the fiercest competition possible in 2 weeks so it's not going to have great legs. There's plenty of schools out now, not as many as July admittedly, but enough that the preview number should at least be comparable to so, say, How To Train Your Dragon 3 which brought in $3M earlier this year.

 

It's totally possible the movie will recover relative to that preview number, but a smaller preview number doesn't mean it'll be less frontloaded than SLOP 1. LEGO Movie 2 was more frontloaded to previews than LEGO Batman despite it having lower previews, and Hotel Transylvania 3 was also more frontloaded than SLOP 1 despite the disparity in preview grosses ($2.6M vs. $5.3M)

[DisposedData]

4 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Schools on the east coast do not close for the summer until mid to late June. 

So bizzare. Here in the west they have been out since Memorial day lol.

[RamblinRed]

Schools in the SE have been out since Memorial Day as well.

It would be interesting to see if someone had the percentage of schools out.

I'd be willing to bet its at least 50%. I think it is mainly the NE and Midwest that still has schools in.

 

[a2k]

40-41 looking like the high-end for DARKP

 

5

11 [16 od = 3.2x previews, a little better than 3.1x for KOTM]

13.8 (+25%) // +22.5% for KOTM

10.7 (-22.5%) // -25% for KOTM

= 40.5

 

mid-high 30s and 90 dom likely. 

pessimistically low 30s ow and 70+ dom.

 

Starts off at 64% on Audience RT.

Edited June 7, 2019 by a2k

[xiazhi]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

I believe they get that from having Spidey appear in other MCU films while Sony reaps the profits from the main Spidey films. it's a mutualistic relationship.

 

 

MCU can use the character as non main character no matter what. 

[DAJK]

12 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

So bizzare. Here in the west they have been out since Memorial day lol.

Not in Canada

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

40-41 looking like the high-end for DARKP

 

5

11 [16 od = 3.2x previews, a little better than 3.1x for KOTM]

13.8 (+25%) // +22.5% for KOTM

10.7 (-22.5%) // -25% for KOTM

= 40.5

 

mid-high 30s and 90 dom likely. 

pessimistically low 30s ow and 80 dom.

 

Starts off at 64% on Audience RT.

That pessimistic scenario seems optimistic. You're aware the X-Men franchise have the worst CBM frontloading of anything this side of Snyder DCEU right? Even when they're loved, the multis are trash (i.e. DOFP). Given WOM is sure to be awful, I'd say 2.2x multi at best for DP. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

MCU can use the character as non main character no matter what. 

No, they can't - that's the Hulk's deal...

http://collider.com/spider-man-marvel-sony-deal-explained/#mcu

[LawrenceBrolivier]

1 hour ago, captainwondyful said:

I really like going to the cinema and films, and 100% agree with @Lordmandeep‘s point.

 

I have a 72 inch TV at my house, hooked up to a nice sound system. My house also has my cats. I can sync up a film with a friend from out-of-state and we can text/gossip about it while we watch without disturbing others. I don’t have to put on pants!

 

There’s not a lot of reasons not to trek out for non-spectacle films.

 

It's been fun to watch different arms of the entertainment industry injuring itself over the past few years. Going to the theater has become an amusement-park-only deal. Think of how many times you've told yourself you don't need to see something at the theater because it isnt a big action movie so it's not worth it... Movie theaters are just cheap rollercoasters that don't move. Disney saw this coming and that's why they own about 50% of the market.

If it hadn't been for the home video race providing higher quality product for almost a decade now, people probably would be more interested in seeing more movies at the theater. bluray is theater quality - a lot of theaters are still projecting in 2k, and most movies are finished at that resolution and upscaled to 4. Most cheap flat screens provide the same sense of having your vision filled as sitting in the back row of an AMC. 

And now all these media companies are rolling out their own streaming networks that will include stuff you'll never see at a theater, but made using the same production modes the theatrical films use, just in time for tv makers and stereo makers to release even cheaper 4k TVs and 7.1 home theater solutions that beat the automated showings at your local chain, and the sense of community isn't even lost because everyone live tweets everything.

The industry needs theaters to survive but simply can't stop themselves from making theaters obsolete for everything but amusement park ride movies. Of course the joke is that this streaming future we're already locked into is dependent on an internet we don't own, regulated by a dumb government for the benefit of maximizing profits for a tiny group of companies. 

In 5 years we'll have amazing equipment that never gets used to its full potential as we overpay a giant telecom for the right to access five different overpriced streaming networks all with exclusive must-see stuff that's so compressed and watery we'll wish theaters were still around so we could actually see what we were paying for, and we'll wonder why we can't do that anymore. 

Edited June 7, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier

[Jay Beezy]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That pessimistic scenario seems optimistic. You're aware the X-Men franchise have the worst CBM frontloading of anything this side of Snyder DCEU right? Even when they're loved, the multis are trash (i.e. DOFP). Given WOM is sure to be awful, I'd say 2.2x multi at best for DP. 

Not to mention, 40.5M gives it the same weekend/preview multiple as Apocalypse which had an inflated Sunday.

[The Futurist]

Amusement park Movies.

Cute.

 

We ve officially reached peak condescencion.

 

Great Job everyone.

 

One of my favourite is also :

 

" for what these movies are" 

Edited June 7, 2019 by The Futurist

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

When did Dark Phoenix's previews start? 7 or 4? 

[john2000]

Just now, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

When did Dark Phoenix's previews start? 7 or 4? 

4

[Jay Beezy]

5 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

It's been fun to watch different arms of the entertainment industry injuring itself over the past few years. Going to the theater has become an amusement-park-only deal. Think of how many times you've told yourself you don't need to see something at the theater because it isnt a big action movie so it's not worth it... Movie theaters are just cheap rollercoasters that don't move. Disney saw this coming and that's why they own about 50% of the market.

If it hadn't been for the home video race providing higher quality product for almost a decade now, people probably would be more interested in seeing more movies at the theater. bluray is theater quality - a lot of theaters are still projecting in 2k, and most movies are finished at that resolution and upscaled to 4. Most cheap flat screens provide the same sense of having your vision filled as sitting in the back row of an AMC. 

And now all these media companies are rolling out their own streaming networks that will include stuff you'll never see at a theater, but made using the same production modes the theatrical films use, just in time for tv makers and stereo makers to release even cheaper 4k TVs and 7.1 home theater solutions that beat the automated showings at your local chain, and the sense of community isn't even lost because everyone live tweets everything.

The industry needs theaters to survive but simply can't stop themselves from making theaters obsolete for everything but amusement park ride movies. Of course the joke is that this streaming future we're already locked into is dependent on an internet we don't own, regulated by a dumb government for the benefit of maximizing profits for a tiny group of companies. 

In 5 years we'll have amazing equipment that never gets used to its full potential as we overpay a giant telecom for the right to access five different overpriced streaming networks all with exclusive must-see stuff that's so compressed and watery we'll wish theaters were still around so we could actually see what we were paying for, and we'll wonder why we can't do that anymore. 

What I think has killed a lot of movies that have done gangbuster business before is the studio mindset that every big movie they make *has* to appeal more internationally than domestically.