The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

May 31st isn’t that great a release date since you miss out on the Memorial Day holiday weekend, but you’re also not totally in summer yet 

The weekend after Memorial Day weekend has actually been a pretty big spot for the past two decades when studios decide they want it to be. The Sum of All Fears made bank in 2002 when the Friday was the 31st and then Finding Nemo exploded the following year (The Italian Job was pretty good counterprogramming that same weekend too). It all depends on if they want to utilize that frame or not, Across the Spider-Verse being the most recent.

[Flip]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

The weekend after Memorial Day weekend has actually been a pretty big spot for the past two decades when studios decide they want it to be. The Sum of All Fears made bank in 2002 when the Friday was the 31st and then Finding Nemo exploded the following year (The Italian Job was pretty good counterprogramming that same weekend too). It all depends on if they want to utilize that frame or not, Across the Spider-Verse being the most recent.

ATSV and Nemo would’ve exploded no matter what, for a film with more murky prospects holiday weekends are so helpful

[M37]

18 hours ago, filmlover said:

The weekend after Memorial Day weekend has actually been a pretty big spot for the past two decades when studios decide they want it to be. The Sum of All Fears made bank in 2002 when the Friday was the 31st and then Finding Nemo exploded the following year (The Italian Job was pretty good counterprogramming that same weekend too). It all depends on if they want to utilize that frame or not, Across the Spider-Verse being the most recent.

In recent history, there are a few summer weekends studios (often Disney) stake an early claim to:

 

1st weekend in May

Memorial Day

Father’s Day

Independence Day 

A mid-July weekend 

 

Beyond that, films are slotted in based on expected competition, PLF availability, etc, so what weekends are “good” often depend on what else is opening. ATSV for example, was a late mover, and basically had to choose between post-MD (between Mermaid and Transformers), or pre-July 4th (between Flash and Indy 5). They chose the former, though with benefit of hindsight the latter was probably slightly better 

 

This summer we have Fall Guy, Furioisa & Garfield, IO2 & BB4, DM4, and Deadpool 3 as the flagship weekends, and everything else finding a spot around them 

Edited January 15 by M37

[poweranimals]

Has Madame Web tickets gone on sale yet?

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Has Madame Web tickets gone on sale yet?

 

Nope.  No grayed out showtimes up yet, either, so it probably won't be in the next couple of days.

[dallas]

Argylle

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-17

10 tickets sold (+2)

 

(2.50x) of The Beekeeper - $6M

 

Not bad, but this is only one comp so I would obviously take this number with a grain of salt. Will probably wait a while to post another update since presales are pretty much non-existent this far out from release. 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Argylle T-18: 26.88%

Lisa Frankenstein T-25: 30.16%

Madame Web T-30: 32.21%

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-116: 46.94%

It Ends With Us T-158: 18.82%

Longlegs T-179: 12.88%

Joker: Folie a Deux T-263: 41.1%

Smile 2 T-277: 22.91%

 

I.S.S. T-4: 26.59% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-39: 23.36% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M 

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

[dallas]

8 minutes ago, Eric George said:

Quorum Updates

Argylle T-18: 26.88%

Lisa Frankenstein T-25: 30.16%

Madame Web T-30: 32.21%

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-116: 46.94%

It Ends With Us T-158: 18.82%

Longlegs T-179: 12.88%

Joker: Folie a Deux T-263: 41.1%

Smile 2 T-277: 22.91%

 

I.S.S. T-4: 26.59% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-39: 23.36% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M 

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

41% for Joker 2 without even a teaser is pretty impressive. I still maintain that it will be one of the biggest movies of the year. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/11/2024 at 9:35 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

I.S.S (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	40	13	29	3728	0.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		19	9	65.52
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		10	7	34.48
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:

0.16x The Creator: $220k

0.48x Haunting in Venice: $530k

0.15x Blue Beetle: $500k

 

Average: $415k

 

Not great bub

 

My next update will be next Tuesday, doing a lil travel over the long weekend!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

I.S.S (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	42	31	60	4080	1.47

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		34	15	56.67
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		24	14	40
Other chains:		2	2	3.33

 

Comps:

0.16x The Creator: $225k

0.3x Haunting in Venice: $325k

0.17x Blue Beetle: $550k

0.47x Gran Turismo: $655k

0.58x Last Voyage of Demeter: $435k

 

Average: $440k

 

Slightly earlier update than usual but I don't think that messes with the numbers too much. This has zero PLFs so I would put the actual $ value from those comps at lower than $400k at this point. Not looking good.

[Krissykins]

9 hours ago, dallas said:

41% for Joker 2 without even a teaser is pretty impressive. I still maintain that it will be one of the biggest movies of the year. 

I think with these awareness levels it’s just people familiar with Joker at this point, rather than Joker 2 specifically. Look at the awareness for Planet of the Apes. 

[TwoMisfits]

So, non-PLF Cinemark booked...and ISS is gonna be low,,,b/c, like Soul, this Cinemark passed on I.S.S.  Now, my PLF still has it for presales, so it's not quite as bad...but a wide opener skipping an MTC 12?  Not good.  Here's the set

 

NEW

Nothing - like, really nothing.  Not an expanding movie, not a new opener, not even a foreign film...zip.  Gonna be a QUIET weekend

 

RETURNING

Mean Girls - 1 screen

Beekeeper - 1 screen

Wonka - 1 screen

Anyone but You - 1 screen

Migration - 1 screen

Aquaman - 1 screen

Night Swim - 1 screen

Iron Claw - 1 screen

Hunger Games: BOSS - 1 screen - this a RETURN after a drop - does that make it an error, a re-expansion, a what the hell?

Gunter Karaam - 1 screen

3 other foreign films share 2 screens

 

Dropped

1 foreign film that was only single showing

 

I guess we can call this weekend the one where holiday and January releases can breathe, b/c we have to have a positive spin:).

 

[emoviefan]

4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I think with these awareness levels it’s just people familiar with Joker at this point, rather than Joker 2 specifically. Look at the awareness for Planet of the Apes. 

The Quorom is just weird all the way around though. Dune Part 2 has had 3 trailers out and last week it was only at 41% awareness. 

[poweranimals]

Have they announced how many theaters Miller’s Girl will be playing in?

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Any update on Argylle?

[M37]

12 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

but a wide opener skipping an MTC 12?  Not good. 

ISS is distributed by Bleecker Street, whose wide releases usually top out at just over 2,000 locations. (And who also haven’t had a $10M grossing domestic release since … 2017!)

 

A TC and OW around Unsane is what I have penciled in 

[filmlover]

Gonna be a really quiet two weeks. Though expect a bunch of expansions and re-releases on the 26th due to Oscar nominations on Tuesday.

[Eric Prime]

10 hours ago, emoviefan said:

The Quorom is just weird all the way around though. Dune Part 2 has had 3 trailers out and last week it was only at 41% awareness. 

A movie can have a bunch of trailers and said trailers can simply not trend, get lost in the shuffle with other news, or only appeal to people already fans of the property. Plus being a tentpole release, it can still be successful even if awareness numbers are low. Like right now, when you compare it to other tentpoles, its 41% puts it in the range of opening around 45-65M, which is what most people on the forum are expecting.

[Sandro Mazzola]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

ISS is distributed by Bleecker Street, whose wide releases usually top out at just over 2,000 locations. (And who also haven’t had a $10M grossing domestic release since … 2017!)

 

A TC and OW around Unsane is what I have penciled in 

 

2324 locations per their website:

 

https://bleeckerstreetmedia.com/editorial/find-theaters-i-s-s/

[Issac Newton]

 

I wonder how "Spy x Family Code: White" will do in North America. 

[el sid]

I.S.S. had on Monday (= 2 days ago) only 27 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 4 of the 7 theaters). Maybe the long weekend is partly to blame. I'll count it again in a few hours.