Weekend Thread. Dark Tower 19.5...Dunkirk 17.6....Emoji 12.3...Girls Trip 11.4 not sure what page| Not the sex thread

[filmnerdjamie]

In the interest of full disclosure, I forgot about The Sixth Sense (I was thinking The Exorcist's $193M before the theatrical rereleases circa '02). But fuck it yeah still standing by what I said. There are always exceptions to the rule in regards to how a specific genre will open or hold via legs... and frankly we are long overdue for an outright blockbuster (READ: $200M+) horror film.

Edited August 5, 2017 by filmnerdjamie

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Good for you. I'm sticking with my 75/275mil total prediction. I'm no guts, no glory on this one.

 

As was mentioned, WB are great at marketing appealing looking genre films with good fanbases to higher than expected openings.

The high trailer views for both trailers makes me think it's going attract a wider audience than the typical horror film. Not sure if it'll beat either Split or Get Out's domestic total but I think $120-150m is likely if it can crack $50-60m.

[Webslinger]

The fact that the weekend thread has turned into another discussion thread for It highlights how lame this weekend is.

 

It's comical to consider that Suicide Squad's Thursday preview number alone is going to be larger than the gross for this weekend's #1 film.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Webslinger said:

The fact that the weekend thread has turned into another discussion thread for It highlights how lame this weekend is.

 

It's comical to consider that Suicide Squad's Thursday preview number alone is going to be larger than the gross for this weekend's #1 film.

Gonna be a miserable couple of weeks at the box office. You can see the tumbleweeds coming from miles away.

[grey ghost]

16 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

In the interest of full disclosure, I forgot about The Sixth Sense (I was thinking The Exorcist's $193M before the theatrical rereleases circa '02). But fuck it yeah still standing by what I said. There are always exceptions to the rule in regards to how a specific genre will open or hold via legs... and frankly we are long overdue for an outright blockbuster (READ: $200M+) horror film.

 

FilmNerdJamie just laid his balls out on the table.

 

I guess you could say...the balls in our court. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Webslinger said:

The fact that the weekend thread has turned into another discussion thread for It highlights how lame this weekend is.

 

It's comical to consider that Suicide Squad's Thursday preview number alone is going to be larger than the gross for this weekend's #1 film.

 

The Studios are to blame really. GOTG and SS showed that August can handily deliver a blockbuster breakout. Why the hell did they leave this month as a wasteland?? Alien, Valerian or Apes should have moved here, all of them would have made more then they did imo. Also, IT should have been the last big movie of the summer, not Annabelle (and altough im really rooting for the doll, it is hardly a "big" movie.). Hell, September looks like more of a summer month than August!

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

No. No they are not. Others I  like that one would be Deep Blue Sea, Anaconda, Deep Rising, Lake Placid and Eight Legged Freaks. But, yeah, none of those can touch Tremors or Slither. Honestly, Deepest Bluest and Anaconda are cut above those but below Tremors and Slither too.

Listen to this guy, kids.

 

He knows what he's talking about. 

[Cochofles]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

The problem is that it looks like a very very bad movie

Sure, to you it does.

To me? 

Looks solid.

[Cochofles]

58 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

I want to see It do well but Jesus 80 million OW predictions seem completely unfounded to me.  And setting yourself up to be disappointed.  I'm not saying it can't happen I'm saying there's literally nothing pointing to it.

But dude...the YT views!!!!  

[AdamKendall]

Absolutely boring #s today.  Only interested to see how close Wonder Woman gets to 400 this weekend.

 

About 'It' ... I don't care what the September record is ... September has been filled with shit forever ... give people something that looks intriguing and they'll show up.  It just feels like the time for 'It' to explode. (Stranger Things, clowns being pretty popular in terms of creepiness now, renowned IP)

 

I find a 65+ opening MUCH more realistic than a 40-45 opening, especially if it's even decent.

Edited August 5, 2017 by AdamKendall

[baumer]

40 minutes ago, CJohn said:

You think it is gonna beat Sixth Sense? You are wrong.

 

Oh, but wouldn't it be glorious?  

 

Every day I try to talk myself out of thinking that it could open to 70 million.  And every day I hope I'm wrong.

[Barnack]

18 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

But dude...the YT views!!!!  

Are they at that special of a level ?

 

According to this:

http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/trailerviews.html

 

Youtube views of upcoming release (In millions):

Thor: Ragnarok (Disney) **	79.973
Justice League (Warner Bros.) **	68.772
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)	45.325
IT (Warner / New Line) **	41.37
Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)	33.677
Black Panther (Disney)	32.218
Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)	27.612
Annabelle: Creation (Warner / New Line)	18.973
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Sony / Columbia)	18.629
The Dark Tower (Sony / Columbia)	17.578
Pitch Perfect 3 (Universal)	15.079
The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature (Open Road)	15.031
Kidnap (Aviron Pictures)	14.065
Coco (Disney)	11.309
The LEGO Ninjagoovie (Warner Bros.) **	10.671
Jigsaw (Lionsgate) *	9.652

 

 

1.5x more bigger than Kingsman, but Kingsman open 2 week after.

1.22x more than Blade Runner that open a full month after.

 

What OW do people have in mind for those 2 movie ? Thor as double of view and open just in november, and the last Thor movie had that an 85 million OW.

 

It is big as a phenomenon, but 60-70m  seem more than 80m+ imo.

 

 

Edited August 5, 2017 by Barnack

[PenguinHyphy]

1 hour ago, DlAMONDZ said:

Anything under 100 ow for IT will be disappointing

 

It has insane buzz and the trailer views show it

I think that you guys intentionally set movies up to be labeled 'bombs' with up your unrealistic expectations. 

[Blankments]

LMFAO my drive-in has possibly the worst double feature of all time this weekend; it seems like it could easily be a bad movie challenge.

 

(It's Emoji and TF5 )

[TwoMisfits]

Things which will be in It's favor...

1. Absolutely nothing at the box office for a month - August is so weak - the possible breakouts come mid-month on Aug 18 and those are not horror...

2. WB marketing with quality pics is awesome right now

3. "Pimp slot" for horror - last year, late August hosted the highest horror movie pre-Halloween (with Don't Breathe on 8/26) - there's no similar movie this year, so this will be the prime kickoff spot for horror

4. A known and loved book project never done in movie form - not saying this is Harry Potter or Lord of the Rings, but...

 

Now, as I'm always saying, numbers haven't been done before just until someone does them...and some movie always eventually does...so, feel free to predict sky high and be overjoyed if they hit (but not disappointed if they don't - miracles don't happen every day:)...I think a movie that gets pre-movie buzz, online WOM from early screens, and great reviews could really sky OW...but until all of that starts to shape up, I'd stay more conservative than a lot of you:)...

 

Edited August 5, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[baumer]

@Barnack

 

The on line views for IT set records....

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/it-trailer-record-views-fate-of-the-furious-1202020299/

[John Marston]

9 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Are they at that special of a level ?

 

According to this:

http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/trailerviews.html

 

Youtube views of upcoming release (In millions):

Thor: Ragnarok (Disney) **	79.973
Justice League (Warner Bros.) **	68.772
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)	45.325
IT (Warner / New Line) **	41.37
Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)	33.677
Black Panther (Disney)	32.218
Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)	27.612
Annabelle: Creation (Warner / New Line)	18.973
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Sony / Columbia)	18.629
The Dark Tower (Sony / Columbia)	17.578
Pitch Perfect 3 (Universal)	15.079
The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature (Open Road)	15.031
Kidnap (Aviron Pictures)	14.065
Coco (Disney)	11.309
The LEGO Ninjagoovie (Warner Bros.) **	10.671
Jigsaw (Lionsgate) *	9.652

 

 

1.5x more bigger than Kingsman, but Kingsman open 2 week after.

1.22x more than Blade Runner that open a full month after.

 

What OW do people have in mind for those 2 movie ? Thor as double of view and open just in november, and the last Thor movie had that an 85 million OW.

 

It is big as a phenomenon, but 60-70m  seem more than 80m+ imo.

 

 

 

Nut Job 2 above Coco and Ninjago. Lol

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:

@Barnack

 

The on line views for IT set records....

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/it-trailer-record-views-fate-of-the-furious-1202020299/

Does those facebook views correlate as well as youtube views to predict box office too ?

 

From what I understood of them they were really unreliable and would count anyone scrolling them and having them on auto-play or something, I don't know as much about twitter/facebook.

 

Youtube is a bit different it show someone clicking on the video, often having searching for it manually on google and consciously, a clear interest.

Edited August 5, 2017 by Barnack

[Premium George]

5 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:

@Barnack

 

The on line views for IT set records....

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/it-trailer-record-views-fate-of-the-furious-1202020299/

That's YT+FB+Twitter. According to Boxoffice report, YT views are much more reliable than others for dom box office, seen by box office performance of F8.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Nut Job 2 above Coco and Ninjago. Lol

Nut Job is an august. 11 release, Coco is an original movie November release, Ninjao sep 22, I'm not sure if it is fair to compare them (would probably need to compare with Nut job views count of 3 month ago.